屏東平原蘊藏豐沛的地下水，為當地居民重要的用水來源，然而隨著養殖漁業發展，由於用水需求大增及地面水有限且供應不穩定，地下水抽用量則大幅提升，但大量超抽卻造成當地地層下陷及海水入侵，對水土資源造成相當大的損失。
前人研究中，利用地下水數值模式模擬地層下陷及地下水鹽化問題是最常見之方式，但當研究者並未對地層下陷造成之影響加以考慮，這些模式將無法準確地預測長期的地下水鹽化狀況，同時，也將無法準確地評估各種整治方法的效果。因此，本研究將運用孔彈性理論及GMS套裝軟體之MODFLOW及MT3D模式建立屏東沿海地區之水流數值模式，在模式中額外考量地層下陷後改變的水力性質，經由率定及驗證之過程，分析其與未考慮之模式的誤差結果，並且設計一無整治及二個整治案例模擬，將兩模式作比較與討論。
就整治案例模擬結果來說，有無考慮壓密之模式，在未來鹽化預測及方案評估上皆有很大的差異。其中相同的是減抽方案的確可有效降低沿海地區之鹽化面積，且上游地區的整治對沿海的影響相對來得低，而沿海地區之抽水井則會較直接影響到氯鹽濃度的改變。
而在零方案的情況下，考慮壓密之模式的鹽化面積皆高於未考慮壓密之模式，若未來之模式並未考慮地層下陷之影響，將可能稍微低估未來的鹽化預測；對於沿海整治來說，若沒有考慮壓密很有可能在長期預測下錯估成效。

Coastal and inland aquaculture fisheries flourish in the Pingtung Plain result in groundwater salinization pollution in coastal areas. In the previous studies, the use of groundwater numerical model of groundwater salinization was the most common way, while the researchers did not consider the impact of land subsidence, these models would not be able to accurately predict long-term groundwater salinization, and meanwhile, these models would not be able to accurately assess the effect of various remediation methods, too. MODFLOW groundwater model is used in this study with its sub-modes MT3D to simulate Pingtung coastal area groundwater condition, and consider the change of hydrogeological properties after land subsidence additionally. To quantize the change of hydrogeological properties, the theory of poroelasticity will be used. Via the process of calibration and verification, and different scenarios to predict the salinization, the model which considered the consolidation and the one did not would be analyze.
The remediation strategy can reduce the area of salinization effectively. The model did not considered the consolidation improves the area of salinization is relatively significant due to the value of hydraulic conductivity stay fixed, and there won’t have great change in flow conditions. Meanwhile, the hydraulic conductivity of the model considered the consolidation is gradually become smaller, it means the flow conditions not be so well, and the effect of the remediation is reduced.
The results show that there are great differences between the model considered the consolidation and the one did not. In the prediction of salinization, taking no account of consolidation might underestimate the extent of salinization, therefore, taking into account the impact of land subsidence is essential.

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