| 研究生: |
羅凱尹 Lo, Kai-Yin |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
以氣象與水文型乾旱指標整合評估臺灣南部區域乾旱特性 Integrated assessment for meteorological and hydrological drought of southern Taiwan |
| 指導教授: |
羅偉誠
Lo, Wei-Cheng |
| 共同指導教授: |
葉信富
Yeh, Hsin-Fu |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 水利及海洋工程學系 Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering |
| 論文出版年: | 2017 |
| 畢業學年度: | 105 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 69 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 標準化降雨量指標 、流量乾旱指標 、趨勢檢定 、臺灣南部 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Standardized Precipitation Index, Streamflow Drought Index, Trend test, Southern Taiwan |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:213 下載:8 |
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乾旱是近年來最嚴重的災害之一,氣候變化異常導致全球乾旱事件增加,造成嚴重的社會與經濟損失引起各專業領域學者的高度關注。臺灣南部地區雖有豐沛的降雨量,然而因降雨時間與空間分配不均,且受到氣候變化異常的影響,造成缺水情況嚴重。現今已發展許多不同型態的乾旱指標評估法進行乾旱探討。本研究主要目的結合不同乾旱評估指標期能考量更完整的評估面向,以標準化降雨量指標(SPI)與流量乾旱指標(SDI)建構綜合乾旱評估方法探討臺灣南部區域的乾旱趨勢與特性。分析結果顯示,不同時間尺度下SPI與SDI所呈現的乾旱事件並非相同,隨著時間尺度增加,相似度越高,較嚴重的乾旱事件發生在1979-1980年、1992-1993年、1994-1995年與2001-2003年。另外,研究區域內隘寮溪流域之三地門流量測站在趨勢分析中呈現顯著下降趨勢,下降變化幅度高達30%,由延遲分析結果中,氣象型乾旱與水文型乾旱在無延遲與延遲一個月的情形下皆呈現非常高的相關性,相關係數皆介於0.6~0.85。在綜合評估分析中,隨著季節的變化呈現不同的乾旱型態,分析結果符合了臺灣南部氣候特性,證實使用單一指標評估法並無法完整呈現乾旱情形,結合不同的乾旱指標綜合性分析才能更完整的描述區域的乾旱特性。
In recent year, droughts have become more intense and frequent in humidity level distinct regions like Taiwan. Due to global warming, the water resources will continue to decrease and the frequency of drought will increase. There are many drought indices proposed to assess the different drought types. The main purpose of this study is to assess the drought of southern Taiwan by constructing an integrated assessment based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). The results show that: (1) The results of SPI and SDI series perhaps are not identical at the same reference periods. Severe and extreme drought events were indicated in 1979-1980, 1992-1993, 1994-1995 and 2001-2003. (2) There is a significant drying trend of the drought in the Ailiao River Basin and showed a downward decrease of 33%. (3) Meteorological drought and hydrological drought present a relatively high correlation at no-delay and one-month delay. The correlation coefficient is between 0.6~0.85, indicating that it still has a high reference for meteorological or hydrological data delayed for one month. (4) The integrated drought assessment (SPI-SDI) meets the climatic characteristics of southern Taiwan and different seasons show different drought patterns. Therefore, confirming the use of a single index cannot comprehensively reflect the characteristics of a regional drought, only by using various drought indices can both analysis and description of the regional drought characteristics be more completely, also enhance the accuracy of drought analysis.
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