隨著國人對健康及食品安全意識的顯著提升，「天然種植」已成為芭樂產業銜接傳統農業與有機農業的策略性過渡方針。本研究結合商業模式圖（BMC）架構，透過專家訪談與層級分析法（AHP），探討該產業轉型的關鍵成功因素（KSF）。

研究結果顯示，「獲利能力」的策略重要性顯著優於「營運管理」，反映出產業轉型核心已從生產效率導向轉向價值創造。在商業模式圖的架構下，成功轉型的核心驅動力在於優化價值主張（Value Proposition）並善用關鍵合作夥伴（Key Partnerships）。具體而言，開發市場導向產品、透過策略性分級與包裝提升品牌溢價，以及積極爭取外部資源與政府補助，被視為最關鍵的影響因素。相反地，法規遵循與安全認證則被歸類為基礎門檻—僅為進入市場的必要條件，而非創造競爭優勢的主要來源。

成功的產業轉型需採行「市場拉動（Market-Pull）」策略。透過優先開發市場契合度高的產品，並利用政府資源優化成本結構（Cost Structure），農民方能達成更佳的財務韌性。本研究發現可作為相關利害關係人在制定天然耕作轉型策略時的實務參考。

Growing consumer concerns about health, environmental sustainability, and food safety have increased interest in alternative farming systems worldwide. While organic farming is widely recognized as a sustainable agricultural approach, its technical requirements, certification procedures, and economic costs often create significant barriers to adoption. As a result, natural cultivation has emerged as a practical transitional strategy between conventional and organic farming. This study aimed to identify the Key Success Factors (KSF) influencing the successful transformation of guava farms toward natural cultivation. Expert interviews were conducted and analyzed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the findings were further interpreted through the Business Model Canvas (BMC) framework to explore strategic implications. The results indicate that profitability is more important than operations management, suggesting that transformation success depends largely on value creation and market performance. The three highest-ranked factors are market-oriented products, product grading and packaging, and access to external resources and government subsidies. These findings emphasize the importance of responding to customer demand, enhancing product value, and strengthening financial sustainability. The study concludes that adopting a market-pull strategy and effectively integrating resources can improve profitability, resilience, and long-term competitiveness in natural cultivation systems.

一、外文部分(依作者姓名開頭字母排列)
1. Alex Osterwalder, Yves Pigneur, (2010) “Business Model Generation: A Handbook for Visionaries, Game Changers, and Challengers.” USA
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二、 中文部分(依作者姓名筆劃排列)
1. 吳建銘,林勇信,陳勵勤 (2018) “運用層級分析探討番石榴產銷班關鍵成功因素之研究”臺中區農業改良場研究彙報 140: 27-40
2. 黃璋如(2003)“我國與歐美有機農產品驗證制度之比較”
3. 楊秀之(2014)“台灣CSA的發展與運作：以新竹頤禾園有機農園與千甲聚落CSA農場為例”

三、 網路部分
1. 南澳自然田-阿江 “有機島之路－4：直接找農夫種－真正有機的消費運動（實踐篇）” 食農教育 Retrieved from: https://www.newsmarket.com.tw/blog/89726/最後瀏覽日: 2026/3/30