| 研究生: |
甘墘薩 Carantes, Chance Isaac |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
HyperKANAKO 模型應用於菲律賓山區集水區之土石流預測模擬 Predictive Debris Flow Simulations for a Mountain Catchment in the Philippines using HyperKANAKO |
| 指導教授: |
詹錢登
Jan, Chyan-Deng |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 自然災害減災及管理國際碩士學位學程 International Master Program on Natural Hazards Mitigation and Management |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 168 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 土石流模擬 、HyperKANAKO 、防砂壩 、山區集水區 、風險分區圖 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Debris flow modeling, HyperKANAKO, Sabo dam, Mountain catchment, Risk zonation mapping |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:72 下載:1 |
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土石流對山區社區是個一直存在的危害,因此需要準確的預測模型來減輕災害。本研究利用分析 2018 年年中至 2019 年年初發生的崩塌所獲得的體積數據,結合使用 50 年重現期降雨資料所建立的流量歷線,在菲律賓班格特省波科德(Bokod, Benguet, Philippines)的一個集水區內進行了模擬。研究使用 HyperKANAKO 軟體模擬了四種不同的情境,將兩種不同的輸砂濃度機制(固定比例與變動比例)與兩種不同的初始土石體積(一般與兩倍)進行組合。
這些模擬結果顯示,約有 17 到 20 棟建築物可能會受到不同程度的影響。最高的最大流深與堆積深度發生在主流槽中,而沿著沖積扇坡面,則可能出現高達 1 公尺的流深與高達 0.5 公尺的土石堆積。根據最大流深、堆積厚度以及初始衝擊力,該沖積扇被劃分為三個風險分區:高風險的紅區、中風險的橘區,以及低風險的藍區。
另外 8 次加入 14 公尺高、防砂開口寬度為 1 公尺的開口型防砂壩(Sabo dam)模擬顯示,這普遍降低了所有建築物的初始衝擊力。然而,這也導致了主流槽部分河段的容洩力降低與出水高(freeboard)損失,而該處正是土石流離開沖積扇後繼續前進的路徑。這可能會增加主流槽沿岸鄰近社區的淹水風險。
Debris flows are an ever-present hazard to mountainous communities, necessitating accurate predictive models to mitigate disaster. Using volumetric data obtained from analyzing landslides that occurred between mid-2018 and early-2019 together with discharge hydrographs developed using 50-year interval rainfall data, simulations were carried out within a catchment in Bokod, Benguet, Philippines. Using HyperKANAKO, four different scenarios were modeled, combining two different sediment concentration regimes (constant vs variable ratios) with two different initial sediment volumes (regular and double). These simulations revealed that between 17 and 20 structures may be impacted to different extents. Highest maximum flow and depositional depths occur within the main trunk river while elevated flow values up to 1 meter and sediment deposition values of up to 0.5 meters can occur along the alluvial fan slopes. Based on maximum flow depths, deposition and initial impact thrusts, the alluvial fan was divided into three risk zones: a higher-risk red zone, a moderate-risk orange zone and a low-risk blue zone. An additional 8 simulations involving the addition of 14-meter high sabo dams with 1-meter-wide slits generally lowered the initial impact thrust for all buildings but also caused a reduction in channel capacity and freeboard loss in portions of the trunk stream where the debris flow continues its path after leaving the alluvial fan. This may increase the flood risk for adjacent communities located along the trunk stream.
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