| 研究生: |
吳勝裕 Wu, Shen-Yu |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
COVID-19後通膨的商品價格對採購策略之影響 Impact of Inflated Commodity Prices on Sourcing Strategies Post-COVID-19 |
| 指導教授: |
張巍勳
Chang, Wei-Shiun |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 高階管理碩士在職專班(EMBA) Executive Master of Business Administration (EMBA) |
| 論文出版年: | 2023 |
| 畢業學年度: | 111 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 54 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 通貨膨脹 、COVID-19 、採購策略 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Inflation, COVID-19, Procurement Strategy |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:146 下載:18 |
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自中美貿易戰、烏俄戰爭及Covid-19發生,全世界短時間一連串的大事,造成經濟變化劇烈,國際上各國皆以前所未有的量化寬鬆政策因應,受此影響,企業中許多屹立已久的管理政策紛紛破功,企業為了解穩定的生產及供貨,管理的轉型也相當快速,如:豐田式生產管理(Toyota Management)的高效能低成本,依據顧客需求,生產必要的東西,而在必要的時候,生產必要量的模式,面臨供應商斷鏈生產時程延長,訂單交期也隨之遙遙無期的局面,更意識到原料供應應原的重要性,採購政策很快的轉為不斷鏈高庫存的模式。
當大部份的人都預知通膨即將開始,物價將隨之上漲時,了解價格交易對採購決策的間接影響對於製造商和零售商來說很重要。例如,如果當前交易價格與較高的未來價格相關聯,則價格交易在刺激消費者更快或更多購買方面的有效性將高於當前交易價格與較低的未來價格相關聯的情況。
綜上所述,本研究主要在探討,預期商品未來價格上升時,通路商的採購決策會是如何變化,籍以了解市場上通膨期間之採購行為現象;實務上耐久材可以銷售多期,所以一般而言會提前囤貨,以從中獲利。
實證結果,採購人員在預期未來商品售價上升之情形下,實驗結果看起來相對保守,訂單量比兩期最低銷量還小,沒有原來實驗假說提早訂購的現象,可能為受試條件中的倉儲成本壓力過大,造成受試者沒有提早訂貨之原因。但在成本及價格改變中,少部份受試者在第27輪訂單量超過倉儲成本的門檻,顯示受試開始理解增加獲利的方式,這表示採購人員對於成本的通膨感受較大,亦或是成本及價格的總體獲利有大於倉儲成本,但不顯著,可能為受測者理解的速度過慢造成不顯著情形,後續需再有更深入的研究來證實。
Understanding the indirect impact of price transactions on procurement decisions is crucial for manufacturers and retailers, especially when most people anticipate an impending inflationary period leading to price increases. This study aims to explore how channel members' procurement decisions may change when they expect future price hikes for commodities, thereby gaining insights into purchasing behavior during inflationary periods. Notably, durable materials can be sold over multiple periods, encouraging pre-stocking to capitalize on potential profits.
Through experimental research, empirical results indicate that purchasing personnel, when faced with the prospect of future price increases, tend to adopt a relatively conservative approach. The order quantities are smaller than even the lowest sales volume observed in the two periods, contrary to the original hypothesis that predicted early ordering behavior. This phenomenon may be attributed to the significant cost pressure associated with warehousing in the experimental conditions, dissuading subjects from placing early orders. However, in cases where cost and price variations were introduced, a minority of participants exceeded the warehousing cost threshold in the 27th round, suggesting an emerging understanding of profit optimization. This indicates that procurement personnel are more sensitive to cost inflation or that the overall profit from cost and price changes might be greater than warehousing costs, though not significantly so. The lack of significance could be due to the relatively slow comprehension of subjects, calling for further in-depth research to confirm these findings.
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