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研究生： 李姿瑩
Li, Tzu-Yin
論文名稱： 全球價值鏈斷鏈前後之環境變化—以COVID-19的影響為例
Environmental Changes Before and After Global Value Chains' Disruption – The Impact of COVID-19
指導教授： 林珮珺
Lin, Pei-Chun
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年： 2021
畢業學年度： 109
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 121
中文關鍵詞： 全球價值鏈 、斷鏈 、碳排放 、生態足跡 、環境延伸多區域投入產出(EEMRIO)分析 、COVID-19
外文關鍵詞： Global Value Chains, Chain Disruption, Carbon Emissions, Ecological Footprint, Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (EEMRIO) Analysis, COVID-19
相關次數： 點閱：260  下載：1 
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    • 在一件商品為「世界製造」的概念下，全球價值鏈已快速擴張；但「全球化」現象受到2019年新型冠狀病毒 (Coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) 疫情而減弱，造成商品供應中斷情形。該如何因應斷鏈危機帶來之全球價值鏈變化，作出對生態汙染影響較輕微的選擇、避免對環境構成更大的傷害？本研究目的以時間序列—2002年至2015年，建構一完整、可掌握全球格局的價值鏈框架，並以COVID-19的影響為例，模擬不同國家接續發生斷鏈的情境，探討全球價值鏈斷鏈前後之環境變化。研究方法使用環境延伸多區域投入產出 (Environmentally-Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output, EEMRIO) 分析，以消費側 (Consumption-Based Accounting, CBA) 角度計算各國生產碳排放，並結合跨境運輸碳排放、生態足跡與生物承載力之計算；再以假設抽取法 (Hypothetical Extraction Method, HEM) 衡量特定國家斷鏈對各國環境形成之影響。本研究成果可提供各國環境汙染之量化數值，並理解以往所忽略的跨境運輸端碳排放正以相對生產端較快之排放增加速度危害全球環境。可由供給面得知，全球環境為「生態赤字」情形，約需1.36個地球資源以維持全球生產及消費所需；從林地碳抵消狀況檢視，則約需1.83個地球資源才能抵消全球的總碳足跡。針對斷鏈模擬結果，若以中國、南韓、義大利三國的紡織業發生斷鏈為例，全球環境將減少0.50%的總碳排放；若此三國改採全面封鎖情形，全球的總碳排放則大幅減少5.54%。斷鏈影響以主要斷鏈國家的鄰近地區變動幅度較大，可凸顯地區之間為「牽一髮動全身」的特性。本研究建議各國依生態赤字或剩餘情形，做為未來優先選擇貿易國家之名單順序，並將碳排放量化結果供各國氣候計畫制定參考。

    The study aims to develop a comprehensive value chain framework capable of comprehending the global pattern from 2002 to 2015, and to use the impact of COVID-19 to simulate the situation of continuous trade disruption in various countries. The method is based on the Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (EEMRIO) analysis, and each country's carbon emissions are calculated using Consumption-Based Accounting (CBA), as well as cross-border transportation carbon emissions, ecological footprint, and biocapacity. Then, using the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM), the impact of chain disruption on the environment of each country was calculated. The findings indicate that previously overlooked emissions associated with cross-border transportation are wreaking havoc on the global environment at a faster rate than emissions associated with production. The global environment is in a state of "ecological deficit," requiring approximately 1.36 earth resources to maintain global production and consumption. Additionally, approximately 1.83 earth forest land resources are required to offset the total carbon footprint. If the textile industry's chains are disrupted in China, South Korea, and Italy, the global environment will save 0.50 percent on total carbon emissions, and 5.54 percent on total carbon emissions if the border is completely closed. This research suggests that countries should prioritize their trading partners based on their ecological deficits or surpluses, and that the carbon emissions quantification results can be used as a guide for developing national climate plans.

    第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機 7 1.3 研究目的 8 1.4 研究範圍 11 1.5 研究流程 11 第二章 文獻回顧 13 2.1 全球價值鏈 13 2.2 投入產出分析 18 2.3 生態足跡計算 22 2.4 運輸碳排放量化 23 2.5 COVID-19斷鏈影響 26 2.6 小結 29 第三章 研究方法 30 3.1 研究資料 30 3.2 碳排放 32 3.2.1 消費側生產碳排放 32 3.2.2 跨境運輸碳排放 35 3.2.3 人均碳排放 38 3.3 時間序列分析 38 3.3.1 趨勢檢定 39 3.3.2 相關性檢定 40 3.4 生態足跡與生物承載力 41 3.4.1 國家生態足跡 41 3.4.2 國家生物承載力 44 3.5 斷鏈情境設定 45 3.5.1 假設抽取步驟 45 3.5.2 「中國斷鏈」情境 48 3.5.3 「+南韓斷鏈」情境 49 3.5.4 「+義大利斷鏈」情境 51 第四章 結果分析 53 4.1 價值鏈框架 53 4.2 碳排放 55 4.2.1 全球視角 55 4.2.2 各國消費側生產碳排放 57 4.2.3 各國跨境運輸碳排放 60 4.2.4 各行業狀況 62 4.2.5 關鍵碳排行業 64 4.3 生態足跡與生物承載力 66 4.3.1 整體環境負荷狀況 66 4.3.2 林地碳抵消狀況 67 4.4 人均碳排放 69 4.5 斷鏈前後環境變化 73 4.5.1 全球視角 73 4.5.2 消費側生產碳排放變化 74 4.5.3 跨境運輸碳排放變化 79 4.5.4 人均碳抵消面積變化 82 第五章 結論與建議 87 5.1 結論 87 5.2 研究貢獻 88 5.2.1 學術貢獻 88 5.2.2 實務貢獻 89 5.3 研究限制 90 5.4 後續研究建議 92 參考文獻 93 中文部分 93 英文部分 93 附錄 99

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