台灣之房地產價格近20年來節節上升，人們難以以合理之價格購置不動產，而租稅作為政府影響社會及經濟政策的重要手段，探討政府近來針對不動產稅制之改革成果應為一項重要議題。不動產稅制可簡易區分為移轉稅及持有稅，而我國持有稅又分為地價稅與房屋稅，本研究將以實際交易案例之分量迴歸分別探討地價稅與房屋稅之近年變革對於房價的影響，並輔以自我迴歸遞延分配模型分析佐證之。
為達上述目標，研究樣本鎖定近五年不動產持有稅變化最為劇烈之臺北市，採用2012年中至2016年中之臺北市中正區、大安區、信義區、中山區及松山區房地產交易樣本，又臺北市為我國政經中心，應能獲得具有代表性及貢獻性之結果。本研究之主要測試發現，當被解釋變數為房地總價時，僅有較高分量之迴歸模型顯示房屋稅有效稅率與房地總價為正向顯著（較低分量亦呈負向顯著），而地價稅有效稅率則於任何分量皆呈預期中之負向顯著。而當被解釋變數為房地單價時，模型解釋能力遠較被解釋變數為房屋總價時為高，有較佳之模型配適度，主要變數不動產持有稅有效稅率亦於每種分量皆達預期中之負向顯著。
本研究另發展額外測試，利用自我迴歸遞延分配模型估計變數長期關係，印證分量迴歸之結果，其結果顯示地價稅與房屋稅皆會對房價產生負面衝擊，與前述分量迴歸結果一致。故本文認為，提高不動產持有稅稅負的確已造成房價下跌，惟持有稅基仍大幅度偏離市價，故建議未來稅制改革方向應循序漸進地盡量縮小兩者之間差距，以達成租稅公平及抑制房價的目標。

In recently years, the price of real estate in Taiwan increased dramatically and most people couldn’t buy the house in reasonable price. It seems like that housing prices would keep climbing for eternity. Of all the weapons in the government's arsenal, tax is by far the most powerful one. Therefore, it would be an important issue to discuss the effectiveness of reformation in real estate holding tax. There are two main kinds of property tax in Taiwan, one is transfer tax, and the other is holding tax (including housing tax and land value tax). In order to explore how the holding tax affects housing prices, we used quantile regression to prove it and this research would base on real estate transaction sample of Taipei City. In the end, we utilized ARDL model as an extra-analytical to conduct second confirmation.
For the sake of achieving the target, we collected real estate transaction sample in 5 district of Taipei City (Zhongzheng, Da'an, Xinyi, Zhongshan and Songshan District) during the period from July 2012 to June 2016, when made much of renovations in holding tax. Our major analytical has shown that if explain variables were housing prices, except the expensive sample, all primary variable were negative significantly to explain variables. Therefore, when explain variables were housing prices per meter, without any exception, all primary variables were negative significantly to explain variables. Therefore, the result of major analytical were usually in line with expectations
In extra-analytical phase, we utilized ARDL model to confirm the result of major analytical. It showed that housing tax and land value tax would negatively impact the housing price as well. In the end, we derived conclusion that raising burden of holding tax would indeed bring down the housing prices. In order to cool down the real estate market and to achieve the principle of fair taxation, we suggested that the government should bridge the gap between the market housing prices and the holding tax base.

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