近年來，美中科技競爭、出口管制、區域衝突與全球供應鏈重組，使高科技建廠專案面臨更高的不確定性。對高科技建廠而言，關鍵設備、特殊材料、專業人力、境外技術支援、能源供應與行政合規等條件，均可能受到地緣政治風險影響，並進一步轉化為專案時程延誤。因此，如何辨識地緣政治風險下影響專案時程之關鍵因素，已成為高科技建廠管理的重要議題。

本研究以「地緣政治對於專案時程之影響」為主題，聚焦於高科技建廠專案情境，透過文獻回顧建立物料供應、專業人力與環境合規三大構面，以及九項子準則之層級架構。研究方法採用層級分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP），並以具高科技建廠、廠務、專案管理、供應鏈或工程實務經驗之專家為問卷對象。經問卷回收與一致性檢核後，本研究採計 15 份有效專家問卷，計算各構面與子準則之相對權重。

研究結果顯示，在主準則層中，物料供應權重最高，其次為專業人力，環境合規相對較低，表示地緣政治風險主要透過設備與材料供應問題影響高科技建廠時程。就九項子準則之綜合權重而言，排名前三者依序為關鍵設備、專業缺工與物料波動，顯示時程風險集中於少數具關鍵路徑影響力之因素。其中，關鍵設備因具長交期、高專用性與供應來源集中等特性，最可能成為時程瓶頸；專業缺工則可能影響施工銜接、設備安裝與測試驗證；物料波動則可能透過採購延遲、成本壓力與施工排程調整影響專案進度。

本研究結論指出，地緣政治風險對高科技建廠專案時程之影響，並非單一外部事件所造成，而是透過物料供應、專業人力與環境合規等管理環節逐步轉化為時程風險。因此，高科技建廠專案應由傳統全面列管式風險管理，轉向以高權重因素為核心之重點追蹤機制。實務上，專案團隊應優先針對關鍵設備、專業缺工、物料波動、替代驗證、境外支援與能源韌性建立前期盤點、責任窗口、預警指標與階段性檢核機制，以提升專案時程管理之韌性與可控性。

This study investigates how geopolitical risks affect the schedules of high-tech fab construction projects. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), this research evaluates the relative importance of schedule risk factors under geopolitical uncertainty. The findings show that material supply is the most important dimension, followed by professional manpower and environmental compliance. Among the sub-criteria, critical equipment, shortage of skilled professionals, and material price and supply fluctuations are identified as the most influential factors. The results suggest that project teams should shift from general risk listing to priority-based schedule risk management, with emphasis on early procurement planning, manpower allocation, alternative verification, overseas support coordination, and infrastructure readiness checks.

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