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研究生： 陳柏宏
Chen, Po-Hung
論文名稱： 台灣發展北極海航運之策略分析研究
An Analysis of Taiwan's Strategy for the Development of Arctic Maritime Transport
指導教授： 劉大綱
Liu, Ta-Kang
學位類別： 博士
Doctor
系所名稱： 工學院 - 海洋科技與事務研究所
Institute of Ocean Technology and Marine Affairs
論文出版年： 2023
畢業學年度： 111
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 131
中文關鍵詞： 航運 、北極海航道 、東北航道 、西北航道 、環境污染
外文關鍵詞： Marine transport, Arctic Sea Passage, Northeast Passage, Northwest Passage, Environmental Pollution
相關次數： 點閱：184  下載：1 
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    • 近年來全世界都面臨的氣候暖化的改變，北極海(Arctic Ocean，或又稱為「北冰洋」)，也因為全球暖化的問題導致冰層融化，冰封面積大量縮減，而且融化速度一年比一年快。也正因如此，北極海間接開啟了兩個新的航道，分別為「東北航道」（Northeast Passage）及「西北航道」（Northwest Passage），始得原本需要耗費大量時間和成本的海運航道方面有機會省下龐大開支，而且北極海航道一旦開通，東北亞將變成東南亞、澳洲、與歐洲等國家之間的轉運中心，這對臺灣來說有雙重意義，不僅能促進臺灣與國際的海運貿易，提高臺灣的戰略地位，同時還能為臺灣的能源尋找新的方向，然而臺灣在這部分的研究卻是極度缺乏。
    本研究先透過半結構式訪談相關人，運用質性分析進行比較，並利用SWOT來分析臺灣發展北極海航道時所將面對的各種因素。接著透過實際數據來計算從臺灣出發航行北極海航道與現行航道的成本分析。最後結合兩種結果，來分析並探討臺灣發展北極海航運的可行性，進而分析策略與方向。
    結果顯示，相關受訪者對於臺灣發展北極海航道的方向認為是具有可行性的，原因包括航運業的優勢、臺灣的地理位置、以及航程較短。但同時也有許多地方需改進與釐清，例如新航道未知的成本、未完善的法律與主管機關、船員極地經驗的缺乏與無受訓地點、以及環境保護的規定。在計算分析的結果顯示，從臺北港出發到鹿特丹港，通過東北航道的航程將比歐洲航道的航程成本高3.6 %到3.9 %。從臺北港出發通過西北航道航行到紐約港的成本將減少7.2%至7.4%。而在最後分析整理臺灣發展北極策略中表示，臺灣應先制定好完整的法規，因為這會直接影響其航運成本與環境保護等議題，並透過國際立場等輔助條件，使臺灣能以更經濟的方式透過北極海航道進行貿易，進而使北極成為臺灣可以發展的新方向。

    The development of an Arctic shipping passage could bring numerous advantages to Taiwan. These advantages include enhancing Taiwan's strategic position in economic trade and potentially addressing future natural energy shortages. However, research on the development of an Arctic shipping passage in Taiwan is currently lacking.
    This study aims to investigate the feasibility of establishing an Arctic shipping passage in Taiwan. By conducting qualitative interviews, stakeholders' perceptions and suggestions regarding the development of an Arctic shipping passage in Taiwan will be explored. The interview results will then be analyzed to comprehend perceptions about the development of an Arctic shipping passage and to identify Taiwan's strengths and weaknesses using SWOT and TWOS analyses. Additionally, this study will calculate the cost implications of utilizing Arctic shipping passages compared to existing shipping passages for container ships. This cost analysis aims to determine the viability of developing Arctic shipping passages by assessing the financial aspects and identifying cost-related factors.
    Ultimately, the findings from the aforementioned analyses will be synthesized to provide insights into potential future policies and directions for Taiwan's government and enterprises in the context of Arctic shipping passage development.

    摘要 I Abstract II 致謝 VIII 目錄 IX 表目錄 XII 圖目錄 XIII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 7 1.3 研究流程與架構 8 第二章 文獻分析 10 2.1 北極地區 10 2.1.1 北極地區的範圍 10 2.1.2 北極治理的歷史演變 13 2.1.3 北極理事會 14 2.1.4 北極的國際爭端 16 2.2 極地規則 17 2.2.1 封冰水域航行等級 ( Ice Class ) 18 2.2.2 北極海船舶規定 21 2.2.3 環境保護 23 2.3 航道路徑分析 30 2.3.1 北極航道 30 2.3.2 現行航道 35 2.4 航道成本研究 43 第三章 研究方法 46 3.1 質性研究 46 3.1.1 半結構式訪談 47 3.1.2 紮根理論 47 3.1.3 質性資料分析 48 3.2 訪談對象與架構 50 3.2.1 訪談對象 50 3.2.2 訪談架構 52 3.2.3 訪談提綱 52 3.3 SWOT分析法 54 3.4 航行成本分析 56 3.4.1 船舶特徵 56 3.4.2 船舶運輸成本 59 第四章 結果與分析 69 4.1 半結構式訪談結果 69 4.1.1 北極航道的認知與議題 69 4.1.2 北極航道的營運 73 4.1.3 海洋環境的衝擊與影響 78 4.1.4 新航道對於台灣的影響 82 4.1.5 受訪者的具體建議 86 4.2 紮根理論結果 88 4.2.1 開放編碼 88 4.2.2 主軸編碼 90 4.2.3 選擇編碼 96 4.3 SWOT分析結果 98 4.4 航行成本分析結果 102 4.4.1 航行距離 102 4.4.2 運營成本(CVO) 104 4.4.3 資本成本(CVC) 105 4.4.4 燃料成本(CVF) 105 4.4.5 中轉成本(CVT) 106 4.4.6 計算結果與分析 108 4.5 綜合討論 113 第五章 結論 118 5.1 結論 118 5.2 建議 120 參考文獻 121 中文文獻 121 英文文獻 123

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