本研究以汽機車零件業為例，探討產品在疫情、俄烏戰爭、中美貿易戰以及通貨膨脹等變因影響下，預期產品未來價格趨勢對於採購決策的影響。本研究透過文獻回顧及實驗室研究實驗的方式，蒐集資料並進行分析。

在文獻回顧的部分，本研究探討了COVID-19疫情、俄烏戰爭、中美貿易戰以及通貨膨脹等變因對於企業採購策略和供應鏈的影響，也探討了行為決策理論與企業採購的關聯性和採購決策分析的相關文獻，以作為後續實驗室實驗研究的結果分析的背景知識。

在實驗室實驗研究的部分，本研究運用採購測試的方法，以模擬不同情境下的採購決策，並進行統計分析。結果顯示，當預期未來成本上漲趨勢明顯時，採購人員會傾向提前大量採購，而在不確定的情境下，採購人員則會更傾向於採取保守策略，即等待觀察市場變化再做決定。當未來成本與價格都上漲時，如果市場接受了價格上漲，整體獲利會明顯獲得改善。

SUMMARY
This study explores the impact of anticipated future price trends of products on purchasing decisions in the case of auto & motorcycle parts industry under various factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US-China trade war, and inflation. To achieve the research objective, this study collected data through literature review and laboratory experiments.
In the literature review section, this study discussed relevant theories and concepts of purchasing decisions, as well as the impact of anticipated future price trends on purchasing behavior. Additionally, this study explored the effects of factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US-China trade war, and inflation on auto & motorcycle parts industry as background knowledge for subsequent laboratory experiments.
In the laboratory experiments, this study used purchasing tests to simulate purchasing decisions under different scenarios and conducted statistical analysis. The results showed that anticipated future price trends significantly influence purchasing decisions, and the degree of impact varies with different factors. Specifically, when the trend of future prices rising is clear, purchasing personnel tend to make large-scale purchases in advance. In uncertain situations, purchasing personnel tend to adopt a conservative strategy of waiting and observing market changes before making a decision.

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