The Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is in the early stages of development, with numerous efforts underway to apply it to diverse places on a local, national, regional, and worldwide scale. The Sunda Strait and its environs are the subjects of this study, which is conducted on a local basis. The Sunda Strait connects the islands of Java and Sumatra and is vital to both the Indonesian and international communities. The tsunami has struck the region and its environs multiple times in its history, and it is certain to strike again in the future. Therefore, a tsunami hazard analysis for this area is crucial for mitigation and development purposes. Before getting into the core of the dissertation, two tsunamis that struck Indonesia in 2018, the Sulawesi Tsunami and the Sunda Strait Tsunami, served as inspiration for both study and the author personally. Field surveys were carried out at two incident locations and the results of the field surveys were packaged in a chapter at the beginning.
The purpose of this research is to apply a probabilistic technique to assess and analyze tsunami hazards in the Sunda Strait and surrounding area to create and provide hazard curves and maps for the region. Developing probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment methods has been the focus of many studies. As a result, rather than suggesting a unique strategy, this study emphasizes the usage of PTHA in areas where it is urgently needed. In this study, the method for constructing PTHA considers uncertain input to modeling tsunami propagation. Only earthquake is considered as tsunami generator and the uncertainty is mainly related to slip and location. These are the steps that make up the overall process of this research. First, define the location of the tsunamigenic or seismic source. The second step is to create a synthetic earthquake catalog. Third, the propagation of uncertainty from model input to tsunami response at the evaluated locations. Fourth, generating hazard curves and maps. The hazard curves and maps are then utilized to evaluate the specific circumstances. The concept of Karhunen-Loeve (K-L) expansion is the basis for generating random slip samples. While a Stochastic Reduced Order Model (SROM) tool is used to propagate uncertainty from the earthquake to the tsunami response. It uses the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model for tsunami simulations, which is based on the shallow water equation.
The simulations include the provinces of Lampung, Banten, and West Java, as well as Jakarta, the capital of the Republic of Indonesia. This simulation domain needs a size of 1100 km x 720 km and consists of 7 layers configuring a nested grid with the smallest grid size of 6 arcsec (180 km) according to bathymetry data resolution of the BATNAS (Batimetri Nasional), issued by Indonesian Geospatial Information Agency. A combination of linear and nonlinear equations to the layers is applied to the mid-ocean and nearshore areas, respectively. A total of 880 locations are analyzed for tsunami hazard, with an interval of 2 km for coastlines on the Indian Ocean side and 4 km for coastlines on the Java Sea side. The total length of the coastlines that have been assessed is 2200 kilometers. Three segments of megathrust in the subduction zone's outer ring of fire are considered tsunamigenic. Segments of Enggano, Sunda Strait, and West-Central Java are all part of them. As a tsunami generator, the earthquake magnitude target is Mw 7.5-9.0. There are 1700 simulations necessary when slip and location/epicenter are used as uncertainty variables. The two parameters are chosen because of the most uncertainty. An exceedance curve is formed when the tsunami amplitude is paired with the likelihood of occurrence. Meanwhile, a hazard curve will be formed by combining the exceedance curve with the earthquake recurrence. It necessitates average return periods of earthquakes. The Guttenberg-Richter Law is applied here by using 60-year seismic data from 1960 to 2020. The PTHA also provides some hazard maps. With such a large area and a long coastline, the computation's outcome could be useful for community-based mitigation. In terms of this mitigation strategy, intensive simulations conducted have produced tsunami wave records and arrival times for 565 villages in the study area.
Furthermore, the PTHA is used to evaluate two intangible assets, such as national parks and architectural heritage, in order to broaden the impact of this study and obtain a broader impact on life. Ujung Kulon National Park was chosen to study tsunami damage in the endeavor to rescue Javan Rhinos, an endangered species. In addition, the PTHA has been adopted for the preservation of Fort Pendem Cilacap as a tsunami-prone heritage building. Based on field surveys, PTHA work, and intangible asset evaluation, this study proposes an innovative concept to disaster risk reduction. The approach is introduced as object-oriented disaster risk reduction (OO-DRR). It might elaborate on or complete the existing method. Finally, some further work is advised, particularly expanding the study area, as this study only covers around 5% of Indonesia.

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