在全球淨零排放與能源轉型趨勢下，電動汽車已成為運輸部門低碳轉型的重要技術選項。臺灣政府規劃於2030年、2035年與2040年分別達成新售小客車電動化占比30%、60%與100%之政策目標，因此，評估電動汽車與充電基礎設施發展對經濟、能源與環境之影響，對運輸部門低碳轉型與相關產業政策規劃具有重要意義。本研究結合理查德斯曲線、學習曲線與投入產出分析，建立高、中、低三種發展情境，推估2026年至2040年間純電池電動車(BEV)、插電式油電混合車(PHEV)與直流快速充電設施(DCFC)之發展趨勢，並以臺灣110年產業關聯表為基礎，建構經濟、能源與環境(3E)整合分析模型，評估其對臺灣產值、所得、就業、能源消耗與污染排放之影響。
研究結果顯示，電動汽車發展對臺灣整體經濟具有明顯帶動效果，其中以BEV、電力設備及配備、金屬產業與化學材料相關產業之產值帶動效果最為顯著。2040年高情境下，電動汽車總產值帶動效果約達6,192億元，並可帶動約148,484人就業與1,312億元所得帶動效果；中情境與低情境之產值帶動效果則分別約為5,069億元與3,818億元。DCFC亦具穩定之經濟與就業貢獻，2040年高情境下總產值帶動效果約達100億元，並可帶動近1,000人就業及約36億元所得帶動效果，反映直流快速充電設施建置除設備製造外，亦涉及安裝、維運、銷售與相關服務需求。能源分析結果顯示，電動汽車普及可有效降低原油及石油產品與車用汽油消耗。以2040年高情境為例，原油及石油產品消耗約減少417萬公噸油當量，車用汽油消耗約減少241萬公噸油當量，顯示運輸部門對化石燃料之依賴將明顯下降；然而，整體電力需求亦將增加約73億度，主要來自車輛充電需求。環境分析結果則顯示，電動汽車發展可降低CO₂與NOₓ排放，2040年高情境下CO₂總排放約減少3,537千噸，NOₓ約減少2,047公噸；惟PM₂.₅與SOₓ排放可能因電池材料、金屬加工、供應鏈製造活動及新增用電需求而增加，顯示推動電動汽車仍需同步重視製造端污染管制、供應鏈低碳化與電力部門減碳。
最後，本研究建議政府除持續完善公共充電基礎設施與提升充電便利性外，亦應同步強化電網穩定性、再生能源建置與配置與智慧充電管理，並推動電動汽車關鍵零組件與供應鏈在地化，以降低運輸部門電動化所帶來之電力負荷與環境負荷轉移風險，提升臺灣低碳運輸與綠色產業之長期發展韌性。

Under the global trend toward net-zero emissions and energy transition, electric vehicles (EVs) have become an important technology option for low-carbon transportation. Taiwan aims to achieve electrification shares of 30%, 60%, and 100% for newly sold passenger vehicles by 2030, 2035, and 2040, respectively. Therefore, this study investigates the impacts of EV and charging infrastructure development on Taiwan’s economy, energy consumption, and environment. This study integrates the Richards curve, learning curve, and input-output analysis to establish high-, medium-, and low-growth scenarios for forecasting the development trends of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and direct current fast charging facilities (DCFCs) from 2026 to 2040. Based on Taiwan’s 2021 input-output table, an integrated economy, energy, and environment (3E) analytical framework is constructed to evaluate the impacts on output, income, employment, energy consumption, and pollutant emissions.
The results show that EV development can generate substantial 3E impacts. Under the high-growth scenario in 2040, EV development is projected to induce approximately NTD 619.2 billion in output, create 148,484 jobs, and generate NTD 131.2 billion in income effects, while DCFC development contributes about NTD 10.0 billion in output and nearly 1,000 jobs. EV adoption reduces fossil fuel consumption but increases electricity demand by approximately 7.3 billion kWh. From an environmental perspective, under the high-growth scenario in 2040, EV development reduces CO₂ and NOₓ emissions by approximately 3.537 million tonnes and 2,047 tonnes, respectively, whereas PM₂.₅ and SOₓ emissions may increase due to manufacturing activities and additional electricity demand.
Finally, this study suggests that the government should improve public charging infrastructure, strengthen grid stability, expand renewable energy deployment, promote smart charging management, and localize EV-related supply chains to support Taiwan's low-carbon transportation transition.

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