| 研究生: |
李敏豐 Lee, Min-Feng |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
應用ABM方法建立洪災避難模式 Constructing the Flood evacuation model using Agent-Based Model |
| 指導教授: |
董東璟
Doong, Dong-Jiing |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 自然災害減災及管理國際碩士學位學程 International Master Program on Natural Hazards Mitigation and Management |
| 論文出版年: | 2022 |
| 畢業學年度: | 110 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 63 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | ABM 、洪災避難模式 、NetLogo 、圖形結構 、A*搜尋法 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | ABM, flood evacuation model, NetLogo, graphical structure, A* algorithm |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:83 下載:11 |
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建立一套洪災避難模式相當重要,模式結果能提供當地居民洪水發生時之最佳避難路線,亦能令決策者可以掌握洪水發生時之車流狀況,擬定正確之避難決策,降低人員傷亡。
本研究以代理人基模型(Agent-based Model, ABM)建立洪災避難模式,以台南市為例,使用NetLogo應用程式建立代理人基模型。透過加入街道背景、行為模式與環境設置等,模擬展示特定地區之居民在洪水侵襲時避難至避難所位置之交通現況。在研究中採用OpenStreetMap交通地圖,以圖形結構概念作呈現,並加入A*搜尋法驅使代理人基由當前位置依循最佳路徑至終點,同時藉由設置洪水和紅綠燈之參數設定,與代理人間之互動規則,進一步觀察特定區域之車輛淹沒率與交通堵塞之情形。
本研究最終建構出一個模擬不同地區居民在面對洪水來臨時會如何避難之NetLogo介面模式,且能隨使用者喜好進行不同參數與範圍的設定,並能呈現汽機車在洪水侵襲下之受損數目及時序列圖。同時將不同實驗組與對照組模擬結果進行比較,深入探討不同因子對該區域之淹沒率的影響,包含代理人基數目、紅綠燈轉換時間與洪水速度。該研究結果將可做為避難時間的抉擇依據,且有助於海岸地區決策單位及早設置減災措施與提供指揮之判斷準則。
In this study, the agent-based model (ABM) was used to study the evacuation route in Tainan city of Taiwan when a flood occurs. Two types of agent, car and scooter were assumed. The model was built in NetLogo environment. The authentic street map, agent behavior, and the traffic scenario are three key parts of the model. Digital map was extracted by OpenStreetMap. After defining the agent’s parameters, the A* search method is used to allow the agents to move on the optimal path to the destination. The model also considered the flood transmission rate and time of traffic light changes. By this model, the agent’s (vehicles) drowning rate and traffic block condition were studied. Running for various scenarios provide scientific results for decision markers. They find the best evacuation route and help the decision markers to make correct evacuation plan.
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