簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 黃韋寧
Huang, Wei-Ning
論文名稱: 零售商決策實驗中沉沒成本效應的異質性研究
Sunk Cost Heterogeneity Effect in Newsvendor Experiments
指導教授: 張巍勳
Chang, Wei-Shiun
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士在職專班
Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)(on the job class)
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 40
中文關鍵詞: 營運管理 、零售商決策實驗 、沉沒成本 、性別 、決策速度
外文關鍵詞: Operational Management, Newsvendor Heterogeneity, Sunk Cost, Gender, Decision Speed
相關次數: 點閱:180  下載:0 
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 零售商決策實驗(Newsvendor experiment)廣泛用於分析不確定性下決策中的捷思法和認知偏誤。儘管已有許多零售商決策的理論模型納入展望理論(Prospect theory),但透過實驗進行的實證驗證仍然不足。同時,雖然在假設情境和一些實證研究中已經確立了沉沒成本偏誤,但其在經濟學行為實驗中的影響未有簡單的定論;在已發表的文獻中,沉沒成本偏誤的影響強度和效果的方向取決於設計等背景因素。本研究在零售商決策實驗中,利用沉沒成本來影響代理人的獲利與損失觀點。在沉沒成本運作下的訂貨決策時間會延長,且在高收益情況下,沉沒成本對趨至均值效應(Pull-to-Center, PtC)指標的影響在不同性別間效果相反。隨著沉沒成本對代理人的酬勞影響程度增加、進入低收益或損失心態,女性的 PtC 指標降低,而男性的 PtC 略有增強。此外,無論收益的關鍵比值如何,訂貨數量都與個體的沉沒成本敏感度異質性相關。沉沒成本在高收益組的女性之中引發的風險偏好的訂購行為,指出代理人的認知偏誤可能有利於委託代理關係中的委託人。

    The newsvendor problem serves as a well-defined framework for analyzing heuristics and biases in decisions under uncertainty. Although prospect theory has been extensively integrated in theoretical models applied to newsvendor ordering, empirical validation through laboratory experiments remains inadequate. Similarly, while sunk cost bias has been established in hypothetical scenarios and some empirical studies, its influence in incentivized laboratory settings is less conclusive, with the reported strength and effect direction depending upon contextual factors. Using imposed sunk cost to influence loss and gain perspectives of ordering agents in newsvendor experiment, we present proof of newsvendors operating under sunk cost taking longer decision time. In high margin situation, sunk cost had opposite impact on pull-to-center (PtC) measurement by gender. With increasing sunk cost impact on the agents’ profit and shift to loss domain, females exhibit reduced PtC while that of males weakly enhanced. Additionally, sunk cost effect on order quantity correlates with individual heterogeneity in susceptibility regardless of critical ratio. Evidence of the more aggressive ordering behavior induced by sunk cost suggests that individual bias can potentially benefit the organization in principal-agent relationship.

    ABSTRACT III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS V TABLE OF CONTENTS VI LIST OF TABLES VII LIST OF FIGURES VIII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER TWO THEORY AND HYPOTHESES 5 CHAPTER THREE EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND PROCEDURES 9 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 12 4.1 Data Description and Sunk Cost Impact Treatment. 12 4.2 Sunk Cost and Gender Effect in Newsvendor Experiments. 15 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 21 REFERENCES 24 APPENDICES 27 Appendix A: Experimental instruction 27 Appendix B: Source: Ronayne et al. (2021), p. A1 SCE-8: A scale to measure susceptibility to the sunk cost effect 30 Appendix C: Supplementary figures of the two data filter conditions 31

    Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35(1), 124-140.
    Becker-Peth, M., Thonemann, U. W., & Gully, T. (2018). A note on the risk aversion of informed newsvendors. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 69(7), 1135-1145.
    Benzion, U., Cohen, Y., Peled, R., & Shavit, T. (2008). Decision-making and the newsvendor problem: an experimental study. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 59(9), 1281-1287.
    Berman, O., Sanajian, N., & Abouee-Mehrizi, H. (2012). Do shareholders really prefer their executives to maximize the equity value? A newsvendor case. Decision Sciences, 43(3), 395-436.
    Bostian, A. J., Holt, C., & Smith, A. (2008). Newsvendor “pull-to-center” effect: adaptive learning in a laboratory experiment. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 10, 590-608.
    Carter, C., Kaufmann, L., & Michel, A. (2007). Behavioral supply management: a taxonomy of judgment and decision-making biases. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 37.
    Castañeda, J. A., & Gonçalves, P. (2018). Ordering behavior in a newsstand experiment. International Journal of Production Economics, 197, 186-196.
    Ceschi, A., Costantini, A., Sartori, R., Weller, J., & Di Fabio, A. (2019). Dimensions of decision-making: An evidence-based classification of heuristics and biases. Personality and Individual Differences, 146, 188-200.
    De Vericourt, F., Jain, K., Bearden, J. N., & Filipowicz, A. (2013). Sex, risk and the newsvendor. Journal of Operations Management, 31(1-2), 86-92.
    Fischbacher, U. (2007). z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments. Experimental Economics, 10(2), 171-178.
    Gino, F., & Pisano, G. (2008). Toward a theory of behavioral operations. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 10(4), 676-691.
    Haita-Falah, C. (2017). Sunk-cost fallacy and cognitive ability in individual decision-making. Journal of Economic Psychology, 58, 44-59.
    Jain, S., & Chen, H. (2023). Sunk cost bias and time inconsistency: A strategic analysis of pricing decisions. Management Science, 69(4), 2383-2400.
    Jammernegg, W., Kischka, P., & Silbermayr, L. (2022). Heterogeneity, asymmetry and applicability of behavioral newsvendor models. European Journal of Operational Research, 301(2), 638-646.
    Katariya, A. P., Cetinkaya, S., & Tekin, E. (2014). On the comparison of risk-neutral and risk-averse newsvendor problems. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 65(7), 1090-1107.
    Kremer, M., Minner, S., & Van Wassenhove, L. N. (2014). On the preference to avoid ex post inventory errors. Production and Operations Management, 23(5), 773-787.
    Krämer, A. (2017). Demystifying the "sunk cost fallacy": when considering fixed cost in decision-making is reasonable. Journal of Research in Marketing, 7, 510-517.
    Long, X., & Nasiry, J. (2015). Prospect theory explains newsvendor behavior: The role of reference points. Management Science, 61(12), 3009-3012.
    Long, X., & Wu, Y. (2023). Newsvendor competition with endogenous biases. Production and Operations Management, 10591478241252157.
    Lurie, N. H., & Swaminathan, J. M. (2009). Is timely information always better? The effect of feedback frequency on decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 108(2), 315-329.
    Moritz, B., Hill, A., & Donohue, K. (2013). Individual differences in the newsvendor problem: Behavior and cognitive reflection. Journal of Operations Management, 31(1-2), 72-85.
    Moritz, B., Siemsen, E., & Kremer, M. (2014). Judgmental forecasting: Cognitive reflection and decision speed. Production and Operations Management, 23(7), 1146-1160.
    Nagarajan, M., & Shechter, S. (2014). Prospect theory and the newsvendor problem. Management Science, 60(4), 1057-1062.
    Negrini, M., Riedl, A., & Wibral, M. (2022). Sunk cost in investment decisions. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 200, 1105-1135.
    Niranjan, T. T., Ghosalya, N. K., Menon, R. R., Rotaru, K., & Gavirneni, S. (2023). Unpacking the cognitive processes of the boundedly rational newsvendor. Production and Operations Management, 32(10), 3138-3157.
    Perera, H. N., Fahimnia, B., & Tokar, T. (2020). Inventory and ordering decisions: a systematic review on research driven through behavioral experiments. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 40(7/8), 997-1039.
    Petropoulos, F., Laporte, G., Aktas, E., Alumur, S. A., Archetti, C., Ayhan, H., . . . Boylan, J. E. (2023). Operational Research: methods and applications. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1-195.
    Pournader, M., Kach, A., & Talluri, S. (2020). A Review of the Existing and Emerging Topics in the Supply Chain Risk Management Literature. Decision Sciences, 51(4), 867-919.
    Ren, Y., & Croson, R. (2013). Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study. Management Science, 59(11), 2502-2517.
    Ronayne, D., Sgroi, D., & Tuckwell, A. (2021). Evaluating the sunk cost effect. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 186, 318-327.
    Rose, J. M., Borriello, A., & Pellegrini, A. (2023). Formative versus reflective attitude measures: Extending the hybrid choice model. Journal of Choice Modelling, 48, 100412.
    Roth, S., Robbert, T., & Straus, L. (2015). On the sunk-cost effect in economic decision-making: a meta-analytic review. Business Research, 8(1), 99-138.
    Schweitzer, M., & Cachon, G. (2000). Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem with a Known Demand Distribution. Management Science, 46, 404-420.
    StataCorp. (2023). Stata 18 Structural Equation Modeling Reference Manual. College Station, TX: Stata Press.
    Su, X. (2008). Bounded rationality in newsvendor models. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 10(4), 566-589.
    Uppari, B. S., & Hasija, S. (2019). Modeling newsvendor behavior: A prospect theory approach. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 21(3), 481-500.
    Vipin, B., & Amit, R. K. (2019). Describing decision bias in the newsvendor problem: A prospect theory model. Omega, 82, 132-141.
    Zhang, Y., & Siemsen, E. (2019). A meta‐analysis of newsvendor experiments: revisiting the pull‐to‐center asymmetry. Production and Operations Management, 28(1), 140-156.

    下載圖示
    2026-08-01公開
    QR CODE