在全球淨零排放趨勢下，永續航空燃料(SAF)已成為航空業實質脫碳的核心路徑，然其高額綠色溢價與供應鏈瓶頸，使其成為成本高昂且難以轉嫁的環境決策。本研究結合訊號理論與利害關係人理論，將SAF界定為「昂貴訊號」，並建立辨識框架，區分代表實施時序的「採用SAF」狀態與代表投入強度的「SAF使用率」。研究以2020至2024年全球航空業上市公司為對象，經嚴格篩選取得341筆有效觀測值，採多元迴歸模型檢驗二者對財務績效(ROA)與市場價值(Tobin's Q)的影響路徑。
實證結果顯示，SAF決策會優先反映於企業內部獲利。當航空公司正式跨入「採用SAF」階段，高昂的起始採購成本將顯著侵蝕財務績效(ROA)，呈現明顯的成本陣痛期。惟在市場評價方面，全樣本結果顯示，儘管內部獲利顯著下跌，外部投資人仍能識別並認可SAF的長期合規效益與ESG價值，在短空長多的權衡下展現理性的包容與觀望韌性，未給予立即性的市值懲罰。
橫斷面分析進一步揭露顯著的制度調節效應。在ESG先進市場，實質投入SAF已被視為必要合規成本，內外部評價皆展現合規包容；相較之下，ESG新興市場SAF使用率愈高，財務績效負向影響愈大，市場更給予懲罰性評價，揭示制度配套不足下，實質減碳反而可能招致市值受損。本研究據此證實，環境決策的價值傳導深受所在地制度成熟度之綜合調節，並建議台灣等過渡期業者採「法規遵循為主、合規宣告先行」的漸進策略，維持財務穩健，同時呼籲政策制定者加速落實具強制力的法規與補貼，以支持航空業者在資本市場壓力下仍能追求永續能源、邁向全球淨零。

Under the global net-zero trend, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has become the core pathway for aviation decarbonization, yet its high green premium and supply-chain bottlenecks make it a costly decision whose expense is difficult to pass through to consumers. Integrating signaling and stakeholder theories, this study frames SAF as a "costly signal" and distinguishes the temporal "post-SAF adoption stage" from the operational "SAF utilization rate." Using 341 valid firm-year observations of globally listed airlines (SIC 4512) from 2020 to 2024, a multiple regression model examines their effects on return on assets (ROA) and Tobin's Q.
SAF decisions are reflected first in internal profitability: entering the post-SAF adoption stage significantly erodes ROA through high initial procurement costs. In market valuation, however, the full sample shows that despite the profit decline, external investors recognize SAF's long-term compliance and ESG value, displaying rational tolerance without an immediate valuation penalty.
Cross-sectional analysis reveals a pronounced institutional moderation effect: in ESG-developed markets, substantive SAF deployment is treated as a necessary compliance cost, with profitability and valuations both tolerant; by contrast, in ESG-emerging markets, a higher utilization rate worsens performance and attracts punitive valuations, indicating that weak institutional support may turn substantive decarbonization into valuation losses. The value-transmission path is thus moderated by local institutional maturity—regulatory stringency, ESG norms, and stakeholder culture. Accordingly, airlines in transitional markets such as Taiwan should adopt a gradualist "compliance-first, disclosure-led" strategy while maintaining financial robustness, and policymakers should accelerate enforceable regulatory frameworks and subsidies, so that airlines can pursue sustainable energy toward global net zero even under capital-market pressure.

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