需求預測是企業運籌管理重要的一環，悠關企業資源規劃與分配，而定價策略除了直接影響企業獲利，更深層的意涵是產業趨勢、公司及同業競爭力、市場供需的綜效評估。本文以輕鋼架產業為例，探討需求預測與定價策略之關聯，以整體產業而言，期能給予原料趨勢預測及原料採購建議，對於個案公司，則希望透過銷售資訊，給予未來定價策略擬定的參考。
輕鋼架產業為金屬建材類，製造成本中最主要的佔比來自鋼鐵原料成本，故鋼鐵產業動態與輕鋼架市場息息相關，而建材類產品消長往往與營造景氣相連結，以台灣輕鋼架產業而言，年總產值約40~50億，市場總量不大，但卻是鋼鐵趨勢及營造景氣的縮影，值得一探窺究。
鋼鐵為國家邁向工業化發展之重要基礎工業，相關產業眾多，鋼鐵業發展帶動上下游產業，其中營建業是最傳統也是主要市場需求。然而，台灣上游煉鋼量不足，國內市場鋼鐵用量對外依存度高，下游市場需求變化大，價格波動快速且劇烈，對於鋼鐵加工業而言，經營難度可想而知。本文藉助灰色理論，對台灣鍍鋅鋼鐵表面需求量、市場行情價格進行預測，依量價關係，計算出台灣「鍍鋅鋼品需求量」及其「市場價格」間的價格彈性。接著再以個案公司之隔間輕鋼架進行「銷售量預測與實證」研究，企圖歸納出產業及個案公司不同的需求價格彈性，以做為定價策略參考依據。
研究結果顯示，證實灰色預測模式適用於鍍鋅鋼品需求預測及輕鋼架銷售預測上，且鍍鋅鋼品需求量準確度優於公會預測數據。在需求價格彈性的結果顯示，鍍鋅鋼品產業價格彈性較個案公司來的小，意即鍍鋅鋼品價格波動對於需求量變化相對不敏感。本研究成果不僅可做為鍍鋅鋼品產業價格趨勢預測參考，更能協助業者依據市場預測，進而擬定最佳化的定價策略，以提升經營績效。

Demand forecast is a significant process of enterprises management which is relevant to the planning and allocation of company recourses. Pricing strategy has direct influence on company profit , and moreover, it is concerned about the industry trend、competiveness of company and the demand of market. The thesis will focus ceiling suspension industry as an case study to discuss the relationship between demand forecast and pricing strategy. Thorough this research, it is expected to provide suggestion regarding material trend, material purchase and pricing strategy for the case company.
Ceiling suspension industry belongs to building material industry, and the main proportion of the production cost comes from the raw material cost of Steel, therefore the development of steel industry will affect the ceiling suspension industry obviously. In other words, the growth relations between building material and economical prosperity are highly closed. Even though the market size of ceiling suspension industry is just about 4-5 billion annually, it can be the outline of steel tread and construction development. The development of ceiling suspension industry is a topic deserves further study.
Steel industry is the important basic industry of economics development which can promote the development of the supply chain. The domain and original market of steel is construction industry. However, the supply of Steel in Taiwan is insufficient while the downstream firms depend on semi-production too much. The demands of the market vary from minute to minute which will cause the imbalance of supply and demand and then effect the steel industry development and economics orders accordingly. The research will proceed the prediction of the “demand of coated steel surface” and “market price” by the methodology of accounting, then induce the price elasticity between “demand of coated steel surface” and “market price”. The findings will apply to the research of “sales forecast & practical operation” of wall Frame in case company and then attempt to generalize the different price elasticity needed for case company and the industry. In further, the results can be reference when case company draws the price strategy.
The finding indicates that grey prediction model can apply on the demand forecast of coated steel and the sales forecast of wall frame. Grey prediction model is more precisely than the traditional prediction model (subjective prediction). The result of demand’s price elasticity proves that the price elasticity of coated steel industry is smaller than case company’s, which means demand variation has light effect on the price of casted steel. The research not only can provide reference for price forecast of coated steel industry, but also help company to make the most appropriate price strategy and then improve the management performance.

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