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研究生: 高慕軒
Kao, Mu-Syuan
論文名稱: 應用堆疊雙向-單向 LSTM 與殘差學習方法之極短期負載預測
Stacked Bidirectional-Unidirectional LSTM and Residual Learning Based Approach for Very Short-Term Load Forecasting
指導教授: 楊宏澤
Yang, Hong-Tzer
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電機資訊學院 - 電機工程學系
Department of Electrical Engineering
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 46
中文關鍵詞: 即時負載預測人工智慧長短期記憶自相關係數相互資訊殘差學習
外文關鍵詞: real-time load forecasting, artificial intelligence, long short-term memory, autocorrelation coefficient, mutual information, residual learning
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  • 即時負載預測在制定經濟、可靠和安全的電力系統運行策略中起著關鍵作用,而不同的時間解析度適合的情境不同,如極短期5分鐘前負載預測主要應用於即時操作,而短期的1小時前負載預測主要應用於短期電力系統調度與電力交易。本研究提出基於深度學習的即時負載預測方法,旨在準確預測未來一段時間內的電力負載需求。該方法以自相關函數與相互資訊作為特徵產生與選取,藉此考慮負載具時間性的規律與變數間的複雜非線性相關性,並使用結合堆疊雙向-單向長短期記憶神經網路和殘差學習,以捕捉時間序列中複雜的模式和趨勢,用以預測下一時間點之負載。
    為評估本研究成果應用於不同時間需求的預測成果,本文分別使用新英格蘭獨立系統營運商公開的每小時歷史電力負載數據與沙崙C區資安暨智慧科技研發大樓每5分鐘的歷史電力負載數據,將其各自分為訓練與測試集以驗證準確性。進一步將本研究所提之方法與堆疊式遞歸神經網路、雙向長短期記憶、堆疊式長短期記憶等時間序列模型進行比較,以上述兩個資料集的各個月分數據進行對比。結果證明本研究所提方法在即時負載預測中表現較佳,能夠準確地捕捉到負載的變化趨勢和季節性變化,並且具有較低的預測誤差及較高的穩定性。

    Real-time load forecasting plays a key role in formulating economical, reliable, and safe power system operation strategies, and different time resolutions are suitable for different scenarios. Hourly load forecasting is mainly used in short-term power system dispatching and power trading.
    This study proposes a real-time load forecasting method based on deep learning, aiming to accurately predict the power load demand for a certain period in the future. This method uses the autocorrelation function and mutual information as feature generation and selection, so as to consider the time-dependent law of the load and the complex nonlinear association between variables and uses a combination of stacked bidirectional-unidirectional long-term short-term memory neural networks and residual learning to capture complex patterns and trends in time series to predict the load at the next point in time.
    In order to evaluate the results of this study applied to the prediction results of different time demands. This study uses the hourly historical power load data released by the independent system operator in New England and the 5-min historical power load of the Information Security and Smart Technology R&D Building in Area C of Shalun. And split them into training and testing sets respectively to verify the accuracy.
    Further compare the method proposed in this study with time series models such as stacked RNN, bidirectional LSTM, and double layer stacked LSTM, and compare the monthly data of the above two data sets. The results can prove that the method of this study performs well in real-time load forecasting, can accurately capture the changing trend and seasonal changes of load, and has low forecasting error and high stability.

    摘要 I EXTENDED ABSTRACT II 致謝 VII 目錄 IX 圖目錄 XI 表目錄 XIII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 背景與動機 1 1.2 文獻回顧 2 1.3 研究方法與貢獻 4 1.4 論文架構 5 第二章 負載預測特性與方法介紹 6 2.1 負載預測特性描述 6 2.2 自相關性分析 7 2.3 特徵選取 9 2.4 LSTM神經網路 10 2.5 殘差學習 14 第三章 預測模型 17 3.1 學習模型 17 3.2 訓練階段 19 3.3 測試階段 23 第四章 預測結果與分析 25 4.1 設備與模擬環境 25 4.2 誤差指標 25 4.3 時前短期預測 28 4.4 5分鐘前極短期預測 34 4.5 特徵選取結果比較 40 第五章 結論與未來展望 41 5.1 結論 41 5.2 未來展望 41 參考文獻 43

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