本研究以向量自我迴歸模型(VAR模型)探究全球十大半導體之資本支出比率與景氣擴張期之關聯，研究期間包括2002年第1季至2007年第4季及2009年第3季至2019年第4季兩區間，控制變數則加入聯邦基金利率、政府支出、生產力、投資、S&P 500股價指數、失業率、貿易開放程度、採購經理人指數及個人消費支出物價指數。
研究結果顯示，在第一階段景氣擴張期中，資本支出比率與景氣擴張期不具有Granger因果關係及顯著關聯性；在第二階段景氣擴張期中，資本支出比率與景氣擴張期則具有單向之Granger因果關係，且在VAR模型結果分析中，景氣受資本支出比率落後一期及二期之顯著正面影響，部分證據顯示資本支出比率現今可做為景氣擴張期之領先指標。控制變數當中，政府支出、投資及失業率與景氣擴張期具有顯著關聯。研究結果提供景氣擴張期之產業預測指標，並探討影響景氣擴張期之重要因子。

This study explores the correlation between capital expenditure ratio of the top ten global semiconductor firms and economic expansion periods using the Vector Autoregression model (VAR model). The research period spans from the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2007 and from the third quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2019. Control variables include the federal funds rate, government spending, productivity, investment, S&P 500 index, unemployment rate, trade openness, purchasing managers' index, and personal consumption expenditure price index.
Results indicate that during the first phase of economic expansion, there is neither Granger causality nor significant correlation between the capital expenditure ratio and economic expansion. However, during the second phase of economic expansion, there is a unidirectional causal connection between the capital expenditure ratio and economic expansion. Some evidence, based on VAR analysis, suggests that the capital expenditure ratio, which positively affects economic expansion with one and two periods lag, can now serve as a leading indicator of economic expansion periods.
Among the control variables, government spending, investment, and unemployment rate show significant correlations with economic expansion periods. These findings offer predictive indicators for economic expansion periods in the semiconductor industry and explore factors influencing economic expansion periods.

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