自2007年金融監督管理委員會規定台灣銀行業必須揭露放款品質，銀行處理消費者金融房屋貸款上更加的透明化。根據景氣循環理論，銀行在面臨景氣好時，因貸款人可能因為景氣好轉收入提高使得房貸違約率下降，銀行在提列消費者金融住宅備抵呆帳提撥上會下降。反之若景氣差時，銀行在提列銀行在提列消費者金融住宅備抵呆帳提撥上會上升。
本研究利用2008年第2季至2014年第4季(27季度)的消費者住宅放款資料，利用Panel Data迴歸分析。實證結果發現，在考慮季節性因素下，消費者金融住宅備抵呆帳提撥在預測未來景氣變化與房地產景氣上不具顯著性，與當期消費者金融住宅之逾放款、當期消費者金融住宅之放款有顯著正相關，當期消費者金融住宅之提存率有顯著負相關。

Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan in 2007 mandated the banks in Taiwan to disclosure the quality in mortgage loans. According to the pro-cyclical hypothesis, when the economy is in the periods of upturns, the probability of default decreases and banks will provision less on consumer mortgage loans.
The empirical results of this study indicate that, in the period from 2008Q2 to 2014Q4, loan loss provisions (LLPs) for consumer mortgage loans have no predictive power for the prices of real estate and economic conditions. It suggests LLPs for consumer mortgage loans do not support the pro-cyclical hypothesis. In this study, the empirical results also find that LLPs for consumer mortgage loan is positively related to the levels of consumer mortgage loan and non-performing loan. Finally, reverse ratio, defined as the ratio of loan loss reserves to loans, has a negative impact on loan loss provisioning by bank managers.

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