面對氣候變遷議題日益嚴峻，土地利用變遷與碳排放議題已成為不可忽視的議題。本研究以臺北都會區為實證範圍，探討未來土地利用變遷對電力碳排放之影響，以土地利用變遷模擬、碳排放係數法與空間自相關方法，討論不同發展情境下之碳排放變化趨勢與空間分布特性，並進一步分析碳排熱點與都市設施之空間關聯，作為未來低碳都市規劃之依據。
研究結果顯示，建成環境之擴張為未來都市發展與碳排放增加之主要驅動力，在都市核心碳排放具有明顯的空間聚集特性，集中於人口密度高、開發強度大與交通節點集中的區域；此外，在永續發展情境（SD）下，透過嚴格限制開發與強化綠地保存，可有效抑制碳排增長趨勢，展現出較低的總碳排量與較分散的熱區分布。
本研究進一步提出五項規劃策略建議，以碳效益為核心的土地利用原則、將碳排納入都市規劃實務操作、維持都市邊界與綠地保育、導入碳排動態情境模擬機制，以及推動區域治理與跨域協作機制。整體來說，本研究強調都市空間規劃與碳排放管理整合，提供空間數據與碳排模型之實證分析架構，期能作為未來都市氣候調適與淨零轉型規劃的重要參考。

In response to the growing challenges of climate change, this study examines the impact of future land use change on electricity-related carbon emissions in the Taipei Metropolitan Area. Using land use simulation, emission coefficient methods, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, it explores emission trends and spatial patterns under different development scenarios. The results reveal that the expansion of built-up areas is the main driver of carbon emissions, especially in high-density urban cores. Under the Sustainable Development （SD） scenario, stricter development controls and green space preservation effectively curb emissions and disperse hot spots. The study further proposes five planning strategies: carbon-efficient land use, integrating carbon management into urban planning, protecting urban boundaries and green spaces, adopting dynamic simulation mechanisms, and enhancing regional governance. This research provides a spatial and modeling-based framework to support low-carbon urban planning and net-zero transitions.

英文文獻
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