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研究生: 王余尹
Wang, Yu-Yin
論文名稱: 使用太陽能發電模擬軟體進行既有太陽能案場之成本效益分析
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Existing Solar Sites by Using Solar Power Simulation Software
指導教授: 蔡明田
Tsai, Ming-Tien
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 工程管理碩士在職專班
Engineering Management Graduate Program(on-the-job class)
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 65
中文關鍵詞: 太陽能發電模擬軟體成本效益分析太陽光電系統
外文關鍵詞: Solar power simulation software, Cost-benefit analysis, Photovoltaic (PV) system
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  • 本研究旨在透過使用太陽能模擬軟體,對太陽能案場進行成本效益分析,並將模擬結果與實際案場數據進行比較。本研究共使用三種主流太陽能模擬軟體:PVsyst、PV*SOL premium及SolarEdge Designer,這些工具被廣泛在學術界使用,提供了從初步設計到詳細報告的全面功能,包括太陽能光伏系統的發電量產出預測、財務分析、遮陰模擬、3D建模功能、氣象資訊。
    透過這些模擬軟體,本研究首先確立了模擬與實際中太陽能光電系統的建置,希望能夠完全相仿,達到最佳模擬,包括太陽能板的種類、排列和傾斜角度、建置容量,以及逆變器廠牌的匹配。隨後,利用收集到的氣候數據和地理信息,對每個案場的年度能源產出進行了精確模擬。這些數據被用來估計20年後的投資回報率(ROI)、淨現值(NPV)和內部收益率(IRR),這些指標是評估項目經濟可行性的關鍵。
    模擬結果顯示,雖然各軟體在預測能源產出方面存在細微差異,但它們在財務分析方面提供了一致的結論,證明所選案場具有良好的投資效益。此外,透過與實際案場運營數據的比較,本研究確認了模擬軟體在預測太陽能系統性能方面的準確性和可靠性,雖然也發現了一些偏差,這些主要由於實際氣候條件、人為誤差、系統計算差異所致。
    最後,本研究進行了敏感性分析,探討了太陽能板成本、電價變動和政策變化等因素對項目經濟效益的影響。結果表明,雖然外部經濟和政策因素對太陽能項目的財務表現有顯著影響,但透過精確的系統設計和財務規劃,風險可以得到有效管理。

    This study aims to perform a cost-benefit analysis of solar sites using solar simulation software and to compare the simulated results with actual field data. Three leading solar simulation software tools were employed: PVsyst, PV*SOL premium, and SolarEdge-Designer. The simulation results indicate that while there are slight differences in the prediction of energy output among the software, they provide consistent conclusions in terms of financial analysis, demonstrating that the selected sites have a favorable investment outlook. The findings suggest that through precise system design and financial planning, risks can be effectively managed.

    摘要 i EXTENDED ABSTRACT ii 誌謝 v 目錄 vi 表目錄 viii 圖目錄 ix 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機 4 第三節 研究目的 6 第四節 研究流程 7 第二章 文獻探討與太陽發電系統介紹 8 第一節 太陽光電系統的原理 8 第二節 太陽能發電設備 10 第三節 多款太陽能光電模擬軟體分析 19 第四節 文獻探討 22 第三章 研究方法 24 第一節 研究架構 24 第二節 研究模擬分析 28 第三節 成本效益分析 30 第四節 SolarEdge Designer模擬結果 31 第五節 PVsyst 模擬結果 34 第六節 PV*SOL premium 2024 模擬結果 37 第七節 敏感性分析 39 第四章 研究結果 43 第一節 結果與討論 44 第二節 潛在隱憂及挑戰 45 第五章 結論與建議 46 第一節 成本效益分析 46 第二節 技術討論 47 第三節 太陽能模擬軟體之優劣勢 47 第四節 台灣目前政策是否有無改善之處 48 第五節 未來展望 49 參考文獻 50

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