在都市化與區域發展過程中，人口與經濟活動往往呈現向核心地區聚集之趨勢，使部分鄉鎮地區逐漸出現人口流失與發展停滯的萎縮現象。然而，過去相關研究多聚焦於萎縮對社會與經濟層面之影響，較少探討萎縮過程中土地利用變遷與生態系統服務功能之關聯性，亦缺乏空間實證分析，使地方生態改善之機會與潛力未被重視。因此，本研究以 臺南科學園區及其周邊地區為研究範圍，從萎縮、土地利用變遷與生態系統服務之過程觀點出發，探討人口與經濟變動如何透過土地利用轉變影響生態系統服務功能，並分析其空間差異特性。
本研究以村里為分析單元，蒐集1995年、2006年及2022年之人口、從業人口等資料，作為萎縮辨識指標，並結合土地利用現況資料進行萎縮過程中土地利用之變遷分析。在生態系統服務評估方面，採用InVEST模型計算碳儲存、水資源產出與棲地品質，並透過農業統計資料計算糧食生產量，以建構多面向之生態系統服務指標。
研究方法上，首先以普通最小平方法(OLS)分析人口、經濟與土地利用變遷對生態系統服務之整體影響關係。根據OLS分析結果顯示多數變數之整體影響關係未達顯著，解釋力有限，顯示傳統全域迴歸模型難以捕捉不同地區間之差異。此外，其OLS殘差空間自相關分析結果顯示，部分模型之殘差呈現顯著空間自相關，反映研究區存在空間異質性。基此，本研究認為萎縮過程中各影響因素對生態系統服務之作用具有空間變動特性，後續將進一步採用地理加權迴歸(GWR)分析不同地區之局部影響關係，以深化對其空間影響程度之理解。
研究結果顯示，研究範圍內普遍呈現人口負成長與從業人口正成長情形，顯示地方人口與經濟發展趨勢並未一致。在生態系統服務方面，不同服務類型呈現差異化變化趨勢，其中糧食生產主要受農地變遷影響，碳儲存與棲地品質則與土地覆蓋變化及植被累積有關，水涵養則可能受到降雨條件影響。整體而言，萎縮對生態系統服務之影響可能同時具備正負效果之特性。
本研究之貢獻在於從過程導向觀點整合萎縮、土地利用變遷與生態系統服務變化之關聯，並透過空間分析方法揭示其區域差異，補足既有研究偏重探討萎縮負面影響之不足。研究結果可在未來萎縮地區在空間規劃與永續發展策略上，提供在地生態潛力之參考依據。

During the process of urbanization and regional development, population and economic activities tend to concentrate in core areas, while some surrounding townships experience population loss, development stagnation, and shrinkage. Previous studies have primarily focused on the socioeconomic impacts of shrinkage, with limited attention to land-use change and ecosystem services. This study examines the Tainan Science Park (TSP) and its surrounding areas from a process-oriented perspective to explore the relationships among shrinkage, land-use change, and ecosystem services and their spatial variations.
Population, employment, and land-use data for 1995, 2006, and 2022 were used to identify shrinkage and land-use transitions. Carbon storage, water yield, and habitat quality were assessed using the InVEST model, while food production was estimated from agricultural statistics. OLS and GWR were applied to examine global and spatially varying relationships.
Results reveal widespread population decline alongside employment growth, indicating divergent demographic and economic trajectories. Ecosystem services also showed distinct patterns: food production was associated with agricultural land change, while carbon storage and habitat quality were related to land-cover change and vegetation accumulation. Water yield may also be influenced by precipitation. Overall, shrinkage showed spatially heterogeneous relationships with ecosystem services, with both positive and negative effects. These findings provide a basis for identifying local ecological potential and informing sustainable planning in shrinking areas.

1. 王虹婷. (2018). 不同時期土地利用生態系服務價值之比較評估. 國立臺灣大學生物資源暨農學院森林環境暨資源學系碩士論文. https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201801066
2. 王勝鴻. (2025). 竹林碳儲存潛力與生態系統服務之間的權衡與協同：以南投縣為例. 臺北市立大學地球環境曁生物資源學系環境教育與資源碩士班碩士論文.
3. 行政院主計總處(2010). 我國人口概況－總論。社會指標統計年報。https://ws.dgbas.gov.tw/public/data/dgbas03/bs2/socialindicator/2010si/%E6%88%91%E5%9C%8B%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E6%A6%82%E6%B3%81.pdf
4. 吳欣穎(2017). 探討台灣本島城市萎縮軌跡. 國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士學位論文.
5. 吳易津. (2024). 都市空氣污染與社會經濟特徵關聯性之空間分析-以環境正義的觀點. 國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所碩士學位論文.
6. 邱皓政. (2017). 多元迴歸的自變數比較與多元共線性之影響 效果量、優勢性與相對權數指標的估計與應用. 臺大管理論叢, 27(3), 1-44. https://doi.org/10.6226/NTUMR.2017.JAN.A103-022
7. 余清祥, 梁穎誼, & 郭柔芸. (2022). 地理加權迴歸在視覺化分析之探討. Journal of the Chinese Statistical Association, 60, 208–232.
8. 柳正村(2005). 地方發展的邊緣化與因應策略之研究-以台東市及週邊鄉鎮為例. 國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所碩士學位論文.
9. 林柏君、羅正宗、陳榮坤、劉啟東(2012) 利用根箱探討水稻根系生長之變化。嘉大農林學報9(1)：17-42。
10. 柯佑霖、黃文政(2016). 以InVEST 模式評估水庫集水區農業非點源汙染之防治效益. 水土保持學報48(2)：1733-1748。
11. 南部科學園區(2024). 臺南園區簡介. https://www.stsp.gov.tw/web/WEB/Jsp/Page/cindex.jsp?frontTarget=DEFAULT&thisRootID=376
12. 高至煒. (2017). 南科高雄園區設立對鄰近地方發展的影響. 國立高雄師範大學地理學系碩士論文.
13. 許舒惠. (2013). 南科台南園區及其周緣的土地開發與歷史變遷. 國立臺南大學台灣文化研究所碩士論文.
14. 孫兆宏. (2024). 都市交通因子對地表溫度之時空影響分析-以臺北市為例. 逢甲大學都市計畫與空間資訊學系碩士論文.
15. 葉美玲, & 高美玲. (1999). 結構方程模式與線性結構關係之簡介. 護理研究, 7(5), 490-497. https://doi.org/10.7081/NR.199910.0490
16. 葉韋廷. (2014). 台灣萎縮城市的發展策略挑戰：以基隆市為例. 國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所碩士學位論文.
17. 溫福星. (2013). 社會科學研究中使用迴歸分析的五個重要觀念. 管理學報, 30(2), 169-190. https://doi.org/10.6504/JOM.2013.30.02.04
18. 詹為巽, & 吳若穎. (2019). 森林生態系服務效益評估工具. 林業研究專訊, 26(4).
19. 詹為巽, 鄭可風, 林俊成, & 邱祈榮. (2020). 運用InVEST模擬土地利用變化對生態系服務效益之影響─以蓮華池地區為例. 中華林學季刊, 53(1), 1-18.
20. 蔡佩珍(2022). 近年我國縣市人口變動情形及影響因素. 台灣經濟論衡, 21(4), 35-41.
21. 陳妙雲(2015). 以結構模式探究臺灣都市衰退之影響因子及因應策略. 逢甲大學土木及水利工程博士學位學程博士論文.
22. 陳冠嘉. (2025). 氣候變遷下台灣參考作物蒸發散量評估模式之發展. 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系碩士班碩士論文.
23. 簡廷妤(2014). 以人口產業變遷觀點探討台灣萎縮城市類型之研究. 國立成功大學都市計劃學系碩士班碩士論文.
24. 張學聖、魏良諭. (2010). 國土空間規劃回應氣候變遷之比較分析－以台南市為例. 規劃學報, 38(2), 1-28.
25. 張容瑛. (2014). 臺北都會區港口城市的困局再生中的基隆？. 地理學報, 72, 5-29. https://doi.org/10.6161/jgs.2014.72.02
26. 張家睿. (2015). 萎縮城市、尺度政治與發展治理－以嘉義縣為例. 國立臺北大學都市計畫研究所碩士學位論文.
27. 張文馨(2022)。台灣鄉村地區萎縮現象與振興策略之探討-以台南市為例. (國立成功大學都市計劃學系碩士班碩士論文)
28. 張尹宣(2025). 以生態系統服務評估探討台灣的濕地明智利用：以宜蘭縣五十二甲濕地為例. 國立臺北大學都市計畫研究所碩士學位論文.
29. 黃山內、謝明憲(2000)。農村生態保育與農業永續經營。農業部。擷取自：https://www.moa.gov.tw/ws.php?id=2293
30. 黃詩涵. (2018). 臺北都會區土地使用變遷對綠色基盤及生態系統服務的影響. 國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所碩士學位論文.
31. 黃子苓. (2021). 探討萎縮都市下的土地使用變遷模式. 國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所碩士學位論文.
32. 鄭泰山. (1989).水土保持草類根系之研究. 國立中興大學水土保持研究所學位論文。
33. 戴洺怡. (2025). 從智慧收縮角度探討人口縮減下的土地使用變化與空置類型—以舊台南市市區為例. 國立成功大學都市計劃學系碩士論文.
34. 盧俞廷. (2019). 台灣萎縮城鄉之時空格局分析. 國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文.
35. Bennett, E. M., Peterson, G. D., & Gordon, L. J. (2009). Understanding relationships among multiple ecosystem services. Ecol Lett, 12(12), 1394-1404. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01387.x
36. Bagstad, K. J., Semmens, D. J., Waage, S., & Winthrop, R. (2013). A comparative assessment of decision-support tools for ecosystem services quantification and valuation. Ecosystem Services, 5, 27-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.07.004
37. Bagstad, K. J., Balbi, S., Magrach, A., Martínez-Lopez, J., Villa, F., & Voigt, B. (2018). Global supply-demand ecosystem service models for ARIES https://github.com/integratedmodelling/im.aries.global?tab=readme-ov-file#readme
38. Bruno, D., Sorando, R., Álvarez-Farizo, B., Castellano, C., Céspedes, V., Gallardo, B., Jiménez, J. J., López, M. V., López-Flores, R., Moret-Fernández, D., Navarro, E., Picazo, F., Sevilla-Callejo, M., Tormo, J., Vidal-Macua, J. J., Nicolau, J. M., & Comín, F. A. (2021). Depopulation impacts on ecosystem services in Mediterranean rural areas. Ecosystem Services, 52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2021.101369
39. Dash, G., & Paul, J. (2021). CB-SEM vs PLS-SEM methods for research in social sciences and technology forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121092
40. European Commission. (2022). Shrinking cities. Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2760/11076
41. Chen, X., Lang, W., Yuan, Y., Yan, G., & Hou, X. (2024). Conceptualizing the nexus between spatiotemporal shrinkage patterns of natural cities and driving mechanisms: Insights into urban shrinkage in Northeast China. Cities, 152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2024.105179
42. Fotheringham, A. S., Yang, W., & Kang, W. (2017). Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 107(6), 1247-1265. https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2017.1352480
43. Feng, W., Liu, Y., & Qu, L. (2019). Effect of land-centered urbanization on rural development: A regional analysis in China. Land Use Policy, 87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104072
44. Hargreaves, G. H., and Samni, Z. A., Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. TRANSACTION of the ASAE (1985).
45. Hollander, J. B., Pallagst, K., Schwarz, T., & Popper, F. J. (2009). Planning Shrinking Cities. Progress in Planning.
46. Haase, D., Haase, A., Rink, D. J. L., & Planning, U. (2014). Conceptualizing the nexus between urban shrinkage and ecosystem services. 132, 159-169.
47. Herrmann, D., Shuster, W., Mayer, A., & Garmestani, A. (2016). Sustainability for Shrinking Cities. Sustainability, 8(9). https://doi.org/10.3390/su8090911
48. Haase, A., Nelle, A., & Mallach, A. (2017a). Representing urban shrinkage — The importance of discourse as a frame for understanding conditions and policy. Cities, 69, 95-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.09.007
49. Haase, A., Wolff, M., & Rink, D. (2017b). From shrinkage to regrowth: The nexus between urban dynamics, land use change and ecosystem service provision (Vol. 10). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59324-1_11
50. He, X., Gao, W., Guan, D., & Zhou, L. (2023). Impacts of urban shrinkage on the built environment and its environmental sustainability: an analytical review. Environmental Research Letters, 18(10). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf726
51. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Fourth Assessment Report. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
52. Knoke, D. (2005). Structural Equation Models. Encyclopedia of Social Measurement, 689-695 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-369398-5/00392-3
53. Khavarian-Garmsir, A. R., Pourahmad, A., Hataminejad, H., & Farhoodi, R. (2019). Climate change and environmental degradation and the drivers of migration in the context of shrinking cities: A case study of Khuzestan province, Iran. Sustainable Cities and Society, 47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101480
54. Kang, J., Zhang, L., Meng, Q., Wu, H., Hou, J., Pan, J., & Wu, J. (2025). Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution Under Multiple Scenarios: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Beijing Using the PLUS-InVEST Model. Sustainability, 17(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/su17041589
55. Lee, Y.-C., Ahern, J., & Yeh, C.-T. (2015). Ecosystem services in peri-urban landscapes: The effects of agricultural landscape change on ecosystem services in Taiwan's western coastal plain. Landscape and Urban Planning, 139, 137-148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.02.023
56. Liu, C.-Y., Tang, D.-P., & Teng, C.-S. (2019). Taiwan's Population Decline in the Urbanization Process. . Modern China Studies, 26(2), 116-140.
57. Li, F., & Sang, H. (2019). Spatial Homogeneity Pursuit of Regression Coefficients for Large Datasets. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 114(527), 1050-1062. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2018.1529595
58. Lichter, D. T., Brown, D. L., & Parisi, D. (2020). The rural–urban interface: Rural and small town growth at the metropolitan fringe. Population, Space and Place, 27(3). https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2415
59. Li, W., Zhang, L., Lee, I., & Gkartzios, M. (2023). Overview of Social Policies for Town and Village Development in Response to Rural Shrinkage in East Asia: The Cases of Japan, South Korea and China. Sustainability, 15(14). https://doi.org/10.3390/su151410781
60. Lloret, F., Escudero, A., Lloret, J., & Valladares, F. (2024). An ecological perspective for analysing rural depopulation and abandonment. People and Nature, 6(2), 490-506. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10606
61. Luo, Y., Fang, S., Wu, H., Zhou, X., He, Z., & Gao, L. (2024). Spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality and its shrinkage effect in shrinking cities: Evidence from Northeast China. Ecological Indicators, 161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111919
62. Lin, K.-T., Hashimoto, S., Pan, S.-Y., Huang, W., & Zhang, Y.-T. (2025). Ecosystem Services and Dis-services in the Agricultural Landscapes of Chiayi, Taiwan: A Water-Energy-Food Nexus Perspective. https://doi.org/https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5195883
63. Li, Y., Shangguan, S., Li, W., Liu, S., Li, Y., Han, R., & Xu, J. (2025). Spatial-temporal distribution of farmland occupation and compensation and its impact on ecological service value in China from 1990 to 2021. Sci Rep, 15(1), 14010. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-98742-1
64. Mieszkowski, P., & Mills, E. S. (1993). The Causes of Metropolitan Suburbanization. Journal of Economic Perspectiv, 7(3), 135-147.
65. Martinez-Fernandez, C., Audirac, I., Fol, S., & Cunningham-Sabot, E. (2012). Shrinking cities: urban challenges of globalization. Int J Urban Reg Res, 36(2), 213-225. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.2011.01092.x
66. Murgante, B., & Rotondo, F. (2012). A Geostatistical Approach to Measure Shrinking Cities: The Case of Taranto,Co. In Statistical Methods for Spatial Planning and Monitoring (pp. 119-142). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-88-470-2751-0_1
67. Ma, W., Jiang, G., Li, W., & Zhou, T. (2018). How do population decline, urban sprawl and industrial transformation impact land use change in rural residential areas? A comparative regional analysis at the peri-urban interface. Journal of Cleaner Production, 205, 76-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.08.323
68. Makkonen, T., & Inkinen, T. (2023). Benchmarking the vitality of shrinking rural regions in Finland. Journal of Rural Studies, 97, 334-344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.12.023
69. Máté, É., Pirisi, G., & Trócsányi, A. (2024). Spatial representations in a marginal and disconnected rural region in Hungary. Applied Geography, 170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2024.103360
70. Naugle, A. B., Clancy, T., & Langarudi, S. P. (2023). What is System Dynamics? Defining Characteristics and the Opportunities they Create. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2307.11801
71. Oshan, T., Li, Z., Kang, W., Wolf, L., & Fotheringham, A. (2019). mgwr: A Python Implementation of Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression for Investigating Process Spatial Heterogeneity and Scale. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 8(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8060269
72. Peng, S., Wen, D., He, N., Yu, G., Ma, A., & Wang, Q. (2016). Carbon storage in China's forest ecosystems: estimation by different integrative methods. Ecol Evol, 6(10), 3129-3145. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2114
73. Rave, T. (2014). Environmental impacts of shrinking cities. Shrinking Cities.
74. Ren, J., Li, Y., Zhang, J., Xu, H., & Hao, C. (2024). Does urban shrinkage equate to a decline in development levels? – Urban development measurement and influencing factors analysis. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107401
75. Rędzińska, K., & Krawczyk, M. (2026). Urban ecosystems’ fragmentation as an ecological measure of urbanization quality in shrinking cities. Land Use Policy, 164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107956
76. Stanford Natural Capital Project. (n.d.) What is InVEST? https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/software/invest
77. Schetke, S., & Haase, D. (2008). Multi-criteria assessment of socio-environmental aspects in shrinking cities. Experiences from eastern Germany. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 28(7), 483-503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2007.09.004
78. Seppelt, R., Dormann, C. F., Eppink, F. V., Lautenbach, S., & Schmidt, S. (2011). A quantitative review of ecosystem service studies: approaches, shortcomings and the road ahead. Journal of Applied Ecology, 48(3), 630-636. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01952.x
79. Sun, C.-z., Zhen, L., Wang, C., Yan, B.-y., Cao, X.-c., & Wu, R.-z. (2015). Impacts of ecological restoration and human activities on habitat of overwintering migratory birds in the wetland of Poyang Lake, Jiangxi Province, China. Journal of Mountain Science, 12, 1302-1314.
80. Sharp, R., Tallis, H. T., Ricketts, T. et al. (2018). InVEST 3.7.0.post9 User’ s Guide. The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, University of Minnesota, The Nature Conservancy, and World Wildlife Fund. Retrieved from https://storage.googleapis.com/releases.naturalcapitalproject.org/investuserguide/latest/index.html
81. Shaffer, J. A., Roth, C. L., & Mushet, D. M. (2019). Modeling effects of crop production, energy development and conservation-grassland loss on avian habitat. PLoS One, 14(1), e0198382. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0198382
82. Slach, O., Bosák, V., Krtička, L., Nováček, A., & Rumpel, P. (2019). Urban Shrinkage and Sustainability: Assessing the Nexus between Population Density, Urban Structures and Urban Sustainability. Sustainability, 11(15). https://doi.org/10.3390/su11154142
83. Segers, T., Devisch, O., Herssens, J., & Vanrie, J. (2020). Conceptualizing demographic shrinkage in a growing region – Creating opportunities for spatial practice. Landscape and Urban Planning, 195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2019.103711
84. Song, W., & Li, H. (2020). Spatial pattern evolution of rural settlements from 1961 to 2030 in Tongzhou District, China. Land Use Policy, 99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105044
85. Terrado, M., Sabater, S., Chaplin-Kramer, B., Mandle, L., Ziv, G., & Acuna, V. (2016). Model development for the assessment of terrestrial and aquatic habitat quality in conservation planning. Sci Total Environ, 540, 63-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.064
86. Tong, Y., Liu, W., Li, C., Zhang, J., & Ma, Z. (2021). Understanding patterns and multilevel influencing factors of small town shrinkage in Northeast China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102811
87. Tan, Z., Xiang, S., Wang, J., & Chen, S. (2023). Identification and Measurement of Shrinking Cities Based on Integrated Time-Series Nighttime Light Data: An Example of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Remote Sensing, 15(15). https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15153797
88. Veerkamp, C. J., Loreti, M., Benavidez, R., Jackson, B., & Schipper, A. M. (2023). Comparing three spatial modeling tools for assessing urban ecosystem services. Ecosystem Services, 59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2022.101500
89. Wolff, M. (2010). Indicators to measure shrinking cities. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/ndicators-to-measure-shrinking-cities_tbl1_270339860
90. Wu, C.-F., Lin, Y.-P., Chiang, L.-C., & Huang, T. (2014). Assessing highway's impacts on landscape patterns and ecosystem services: A case study in Puli Township, Taiwan. Landscape and Urban Planning, 128, 60-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.04.020
91. Wan, Z., & Li, H. (2024). Dynamic Evolution and Trade-Off/Synergistic Effects of Ecosystem Services in the Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park from 2000 to 2022. Sustainability, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.3390/su17010108
92. Wang, J., Zhang, L., & Lin, K. (2025). The consequence of urban shrinkage: Investigation on the local fiscal revenue. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 17(7). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rspp.2025.100188
93. Xu, X., Ma, J., Sho, K., & Seta, F. (2025). Urban Growth Divides: The inevitable structure of shrinking cities in urbanization evolution. Cities, 158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2024.105638
94. Xing, G., Wang, D., & Cai, W. (2025). Study on multidimensional shrinkage spatial-temporal patterns and driving forces of cities in the Yellow River Basin. Sci Rep, 15(1), 22934. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06292-3
95. Yanbo, Q., Guanghui, J., Yuting, Y., Qiuyue, Z., Yuling, L., & Wenqiu, M. (2018). Multi-scale analysis on spatial morphology differentiation and formation mechanism of rural residential land: A case study in Shandong Province, China. Habitat International, 71, 135-146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.11.011
96. Yang, S., Yang, X., Gao, X., & Zhang, J. (2022). Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions and their drivers in shrinking cities in China: Empirical evidence based on the NPP/VIIRS nighttime lighting index. J Environ Manage, 322, 116082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116082
97. Zhang, Y., Fu, Y., Kong, X., & Zhang, F. (2019). Prefecture-level city shrinkage on the regional dimension in China: Spatiotemporal change and internal relations. Sustainable Cities and Society, 47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101490
98. Zanker, M., Bureš, V., & Tučník, P. (2021). Environment, Business, and Health Care Prevail: A Comprehensive, Systematic Review of System Dynamics Application Domains. Systems, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/systems9020028
99. Zhang, Y., Ding, X., Dong, L., & Yu, S. (2024). Research on spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of county-level urban shrinkage in urbanizing China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2024.105544
100. Zhuo, R., Xu, X., Zhou, Y., & Guo, X. (2024). Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China. Land, 13(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/land13122137
101. Zheng, H., & Zhang, R. (2025). Identification of shrinkage patterns in Japan’s four major metropolitan areas based on nighttime light and population data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2025.104391