| 研究生: |
沈煜修 Shen, Yu-Hsiu |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
地震型機率式海嘯應用於墾丁地區之研究 Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Kenting for seismic sources |
| 指導教授: |
蕭士俊
Hsiao, Shih-Chun |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 水利及海洋工程學系 Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering |
| 論文出版年: | 2023 |
| 畢業學年度: | 111 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 59 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 非線性最小二乘方法 、海嘯源 、逆推 、FUNWAVE-TVD |
| 外文關鍵詞: | FUNWAVE-TVD, Nonlinear least squares method, Tsunami source, Inversion |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:48 下載:21 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
於2011年發生之日本東北311地震海嘯事件,其海嘯事件令日本沿海地區造成相當嚴重的災害,且海嘯強大的破壞力更破壞了福島核電廠的機組,造成嚴重核輻射外洩等問題,此事件也喚起人們對海嘯的恐懼與重視。而同樣位處板塊交界帶且四面臨海的台灣更是不可忽視此問題,因此本研究墾丁地區為例,進行了馬尼拉海溝可能形成嚴重地震海嘯事件的海嘯源探討。
海嘯源逆推方法主要根據NUREG-CR7223(2016)所提出之非線性最小二乘方法應用於海嘯源逆推重建等問題進行研究探討,本研究採用Matlab程式進行非線性最小二乘方法之計算以及數值模式FUNWAVE-TVD (Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq Wave Model)進行逆推方法過程所需之海嘯數值模擬計算,為了驗證此方法可行性與各種初始條件造成逆推結果之差異,本文先利用幾組單位源與波高計組合進行方法可用性確認,接著探討在不同波高計數量、不同初始權重猜測值及不同波高計分布等條件對於非線性最小二乘方法逆推結果的影響性,並且根據此逆推結果的影響性條件,進行T02海嘯情境逆推,探討於墾丁地區海嘯溢淹模擬差異,並利用機率式海嘯危害度分析方法 (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis, PTHA)所建立之離岸海嘯波高進行逆推,探討此情境對墾丁地區造成之溢淹狀況,以此方式對馬尼拉海溝可能形成之地震海嘯進行深入了解,作為防範海嘯之參考依據。
The tsunami source inversion method is mainly based on the nonlinear least squares method proposed by NUREG-CR7223 (2016), which is applied to tsunami source inversion and reconstruction. In this study, the Matlab program is used to calculate the nonlinear least squares method, and Numerical model FUNWAVE-TVD (Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq Wave Model) is used to carry out the tsunami numerical simulation calculation required in the inversion method process. In order to verify the feasibility of this method and the difference in inversion results caused by various initial conditions, this paper first uses several groups of unit sources and The wave height meter combination is used to confirm the availability of the method, and then the influence of different wave height meter numbers, different initial weight guess values, and different wave height meter distributions on the inverse results of the nonlinear least squares method is discussed, and the impact of the inverse results is based on this Inverse calculation of the T02 tsunami scenario to explore the differences in tsunami inundation simulations in the Kenting area, and use the offshore tsunami wave height established by the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) to conduct inverse calculations to explore the inundation caused by this scenario in the Kenting area In this way, an in-depth understanding of the earthquake and tsunami that may be formed in the Manila Trench can be used as a reference for tsunami prevention.
1. Chen, G.Y., Member, IEEE, Liu, C.C., Yao, C.C. (2015). Forecast System for Offshore Water Surface Elevation With Inundation Map Integrated for Tsunami Early Warning.
2. Chen, Q., Dalrymple, R. A., Kirby, J. T., Kennedy, A. B. and Haller, M. C. (1999). Boussinesq modelling of a rip current system, em J. Geophys. Res., 104, 20,617-20,637.
3. Chen, Q. (2006). Fully nonlinear Boussinesq-type equations for waves and currents over porous beds, Journal of Engineering Mechanics. 132 (2): 220-230.
4. Jing, H. H., H. Zhang, D. A. Yuen, and Y. Shi, (2013). A revised evaluation of tsunami hazards along the Chinese coast in view of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Pure Appl. Geophys, 170: 129-138.
5. Kirby, J. T., Wei, G., Chen, Q., Kennedy, A. B. and Dalrymple, R. A. (1998). FUNWAVE 1.0 Fully nonlinear Boussinesq wave model. Documentation and users manual.
6. Kennedy, A. B., Kirby, J. T., Chen, Q. and Dalrymple, R. A. (2001). Boussinesq-type equations with improved nonlinear performance, Wave Motion, 33, pp. 225-243.
7. Lee, H. J., Cho, Y. S., & Woo, S. B. (2005). Quick tsunami forecasting based on database. In Tsunamis (pp. 231-240). Springer, Dordrecht.
8. USNRC NUREG/CR-7223 (2016). Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Best Modeling Practices and State-of-the-Art Technology.
9. Okada, Y. (1985). Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 75(4): 1135-1154.
10. POWER, W., Wang, X., Lane, E., Gillibrand, P. (2012). A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline
11. PSHA SSHAC-3 SSC, (2019), Development of the Hazard Input Document for Taiwan using SSHAC Level 3 Methodology. Volume 2: SSC Technical Report, Taiwan Power Company.
12. Rafael, Ara´nguiz., Tomoya, S., Yoshiki Y, (2013), Tsunamis from the Arica-Tocopilla sourceregion and their effects on ports of CentralChile. Journal of the International Societyfor the Prevention and Mitigation ofNatural Hazards
13. Shi, F., Kirby, J. T., Tehranirad, B. and Harris, J. C. (2011). FUNWAVE-TVD, Version 1.0, users’manual and benchmark tests, Center for Applied Coastal Research Report, CACR 2011-04,University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware.
14. Shi, F., Kirby, J. T., Tehranirad, B., Harris, J. C. (2016). FUNWAVE-TVD, Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq Wave Model With TVD solver, Documentation and User’s Manual (Version 3.0).Center for Applied Coastal Research, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware USA.
15. Thio, H.K., Somerville, P. and Polet, J. (2010). Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard in California.
16. University of Washington (2017). Probabilistic tsunami design maps for the ASCE 7-16 standard.
17. Wu, C. F., Lee, W. H. K., Boore, D. M. (2008). Strong-Motion Data from the Two Pingtung, Taiwan, Earthquakes of 26 December 2006.
18. Wei, G., Kirby, J.T., Grilli, S.T., Subramanya, R. (1995). A fully nonlinear Boussinesq model for surface waves: Part I. Highly nonlinear unsteady waves, Journal of Fluid Mechanics 294,7192.
19. 林柏佑 (2009) 「利用單位海嘯模擬方法建立台灣近海海嘯警報系統」,國立中央大學地球物理研究所碩士論文。
20. 吳恩綺 (2016) 「機率式海嘯危害度分析方法與潮汐之影響」,國立成功大學水利及海洋工程學系碩士論文。
21. 吳俊霖 (2019) 「台灣地震危害高階模型建置」,國家地震工程研究中心。(http://sshac.ncree.org.tw/,公開課程)
22. 馬婉華 (2013) 「機率式海嘯危害度分析方法建立-應用於核三廠」,國立成功大學水利及海洋工程學系碩士論文。
23. 陳伯飛 (2009) 「利用單位海嘯模擬來建立臺灣海域近海海嘯預警系統」,交通部中央氣象局。
24. 陳冠宇、劉俊志 (2008) 「以互逆格林函數快速預報高雄港外海嘯高度」。第30 屆海洋工程研討會論文集。
25. 陳韻如 (2008) 「2006年屏東外海地震引發海嘯的數值模擬探討」,國立中央大學水文科學研究所碩士論文。
26. 蕭士俊 (2021) 「110年核電廠海嘯危害再評估精進技術研究與管制技術諮詢」,行政院原子能委員會委託研究計劃研究報告。