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研究生: 姜彥竹
Chiang, Yen-Chu
論文名稱: 紀律能否解釋交易者在短期損失迴避偏誤下仍能獲利-以期貨市場為例
Does Trading Discipline Can Explain Why Traders Exhibit Short-Term Loss Aversion Bias Still Can Profitable in The Futures Market
指導教授: 李宏志
Li, Hung-Chih
共同指導: 賴秀卿
Lai, Hsiu-Ching
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 30
中文關鍵詞: 行為財務損失迴避紀律
外文關鍵詞: behavior finance, Loss aversion, Discipline
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  • 近年來有許多行為財務學之研究,發現了在投資人的行為中存在著許多異常現象,本研究以台灣期貨交易所(Taiwan Futures Exchange, TAIFEX)之加權股價指數期貨的散戶為研究對象,並以當日最大以實現損失(Maximum Realized Losses)為參考點,探討投資人的交易行為是否具有損失迴避的特性,接著檢視具有損失迴避性特之交易者,在參考點前後一小時績效表現的變化,最後分析績效與紀律之間的關係,是否越有紀律的交易者越能獲取較好的績效表現。

    實證結果顯示32位交易者中,有13位顯著符合損失迴避之特性,也就是說,在當日發生了最大已實現損失後,交易者會增加其風險承擔程度。而13位有損失迴避現象之交易者,有部分交易者在參考點後績效變好、部分交易者績效變差,但是大部分交易者的績效變化並沒有顯著差異性,在績效的衡量指標上,分為總獲利與已實現利益兩部分,而實證結果顯示,投資人的交易行為越有紀律,越容易獲取較佳的績效。

    There are many studies of behavioral finance discussing the anomalies in investors' trading behavior in recent years. We analyze individual investors from Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX), and use maximum realized losses as the reference point. We discuss whether the investors exhibit loss aversion, and then analyze the performances one hour before and after the reference point. Finally, we investigate the relationship between the trading discipline and performance, examining whether the successful investors exhibit trading disciplined.

    In the empirical results, there are 13 investors exhibit loss aversion. And some investors perform better; some investors perform worse, while most investors have no significant difference in performance after the reference point. We also find that there are positive relationship between trading disciplined and performance, that is, when exhibiting more disciplined, they can have better performance.

    第一章 緒論……………………………………1 第一節 研究動機與目的………………………1 第二節 章節架構………………………………3 第二章 文獻回顧………………………………3 第一節 損失迴避(Loss aversion)的探討………4 第二節 紀律(Discipline)的探討………………6 第三章 研究資料………………………………8 第四章 研究方法………………………………10 第一節 原始資料處理…………………………10 第二節 研究方法設計…………………………13 第五章 實證結果與分析………………………20 第一節 損失迴避的實證………………………20 第二節 績效的實證……………………………23 第三節 紀律的實證……………………………26 第六章 結論……………………………………28 參考文獻………………………………………29

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