台灣電力公司所設立之電力交易平台已上線運行一段時間，其主要的交易商品為各項電力輔助服務容量，交易平台上的各項輔助服務需求量需因應負載特性及再生能源的供電逐時調整，有必要透過系統性的方法進行評估。
本論文根據國內外有關於電力輔助服務的技術文獻內容，汲取國外各電力公司的運營經驗後，提出了一套基於統計分析技術，估算台灣電力系統各項輔助服務需求量的方法。此方法將會使用到大量的負載、再生能源出力資料及預測資料來估算各項輔助服務備轉容量。其估算出的輔助服務需求量亦與台電系統的歷史運轉資料相互檢核，驗證本論文提出的統計分析方法能夠有效地因應各項輔助服務的需求量，確保電力系統在逐年升高的再生能源滲透率情況下能夠穩定運行。

The Ancillary Service (A/S) Market Platform established by Taiwan Power Company has been commercialized. The products of the ancillary service can be catagorized into different kinds of operating reserves. Since the A/S platform is running on the intra-hourly basis according to the load characteristics and the renewable energy supply, it is essential to establish a systematic time-sequence method for estimating various A/S requirements.
This thesis proposes a statistical method to estimate the requirements of various ancillary services in Taiwan based on references published in the litera-tures and technical reports. The method makes use of both historical and foreast data of the load and renewable generation to estimate the A/S demand for the future time of interest. The estimated outcome is also cross-checked with the real operation data. The validation shows that the proposed statistical method can effectively reflect the A/S demand, which ensures the stable operation in the Taipower system under the increasing penetration of renewable generation.

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