在現今競爭激烈的市場中，許多廠商打破了傳統的銷售模式，採用新穎的銷售手法來銷售產品，比如概率銷售(Probabilistic Selling)，概率銷售為銷售商在銷售過程中，利用原有的兩種以上實物商品，創造出另一種商品名為「概率商品」，凡購買概率商品之顧客，會依據銷售商訂定的機率得到兩個其中之一的商品，也因為顧客將購買選擇權交給廠商，可以得到一個較低的折扣；在日常生活中可看到許多概率銷售的案例，例如日本的福袋文化、美國的訂房或是訂機票網站，全世界都可以看到概率商品的蹤跡。
本研究主要探討單一零售商販售概率商品，利用霍特林模型(Hotelling Model)針對三種策略進行探討，分別為傳統銷售策略、概率銷售策略，以及兩策略並行之策略，並於各策略中分別討論消費者風險厭惡情緒的程度、口碑所造成實際機率偏差之程度對於購買概率商品的影響，找出最適合的定價策略，最後再針對不同情境提供相關管理意涵與相關參數分析。消費者對於概率商品態度不只決定個人偏好的強度，也包含消費者本身對於風險的傾向，再加上顧客無法判斷廠商訂定概率商品之機率，於是會搜尋市場上的關於商品的資訊，預期降低購買概率商品所面臨的風險。研究結論指出，當廠商面對風險迴避之顧客群並在有販售概率商品的策略下，廠商利潤會隨著迴避風險的程度增加而減少，而在概率銷售策略中與兩者並行策略中，其概率商品價格也隨著迴避風險的程度增加而減少，原有的商品則在完全覆蓋市場下與不完全覆蓋市場下有不同之變化；而口碑的效應在不同概率商品之機率下具有不同的影響，當口碑參數越小時代表越遠離實際機率，導致利潤降低。

Firms use new marketing strategies, such as a probabilistic selling strategy, rather than traditional marketing ones in the current competitive market. Under the probabilistic selling strategy, a retailer adopts probabilistic selling strategy by using the existing two or more distinct products. This study proposes a Hotelling model, in which a retail offers probabilistic goods to consumers, examines the effects that word of mouth has on consumers with different risk attitudes, and integrates consumers’ subjective probability and risk aversion in the proposed model to obtain the optimal selling strategy for probabilistic goods. The retailer offers the two component products A and B and considers three strategies with a standard Hotelling model. Consumers have to consider the product’s selling price, word of mouth, and degree of risk aversion and then compare their perceived utility to decide which product they want to purchase. Thus, the retailer has to investigate customers’ purchasing behavior and determines whether to sell the probabilistic goods or not. By analyzing the three strategies with consideration of the risk aversive customers, the obtained results show that Traditional Strategy is not affected by the degree of risk aversion, but selling probabilistic goods is affected by the degree of risk aversion. In the condition of the word of mouth, the customer considers the effects of word of mouth and decides whether to purchase the product or not. This study also analyzes other related factors to show differences.

Abendroth, L. J., & Diehl, K. (2006). Now or never: effects of limited purchase opportunities on patterns of regret over time. Journal of consumer research, 33(3), pp 342-351.
Alavi, S., & Bornemann, T., & Wieseke, T. (2015). Gambled price discounts: a remedy to the negative side effects of regular price discounts. Journal of Marketing. 79(20), pp 62-78.
Aydinli, A., & Bertini, A. M., & Lambrecht, A. (2014). Price promotion for emotional impact. Journal of Marketing, 78(July), pp. 80-96.
Basu, A., & Vitharana, P. (2009). Impact of customer knowledge heterogeneity on bundling strategy. Marketing Science, 28(4), pp. 792–801.
Bauer, R., A. (1960). Consumer behavior as risk taking. in Proceedings of the American Marketing Association, Robert S. Hancock (ed.), Chicago, IL: American Marketing Association, 389-398.
Bauer, R.A. (1960), Consumer behavior as risk-taking. in Hancock, R.S. (Ed.), Dynamic Marketing for a Changing World, American Marketing Association, Chicago, IL, pp. 389-393
Beneke, J., & Flynn, R., & Greig, T., & Mukaiwa, M. (2014). The influence of perceived product quality, relative price and risk on customer value and willingness to buy: a study of private label merchandise. Journal of Product & Brand Management, 22(3), pp-218-228.
Bruce, A., B. (2014). Using cumulative prospect theory to explain anomalous crop insurance coverage choice. Transport Reviews. 34(1), pp. 46-67.
Cachon, G. P., & Swinney, R. (2009). Purchasing, Pricing, and Quick Response in the Presence of Strategic Consumers. Management Science, 55(3), pp. 497–511.
Cai, G. & Chen, Y. J. & Wu, C. C. & Hsiao, L. (2013). Probabilistic Selling, Channel Structure, and Supplier Competition. Decision Sciences, 44(2), pp. 267-296.
Chen, Y., & Iyer, G., & Pazgal, A. (2010) .Limited memory, categorization, and competition. Marketing Science, 29(4), pp. 650–670.
Chen, Y., & Wang, Q., & Xie, J. (2011). Online social interactions: A natural experiment on word of mouth versus observational learning. Journal of Marketing Research, 48(2), pp. 238-254.
Chen, Y., & Xie, J. (2008). Online consumer review: Word-of-mouth as a new element of marketing communication mix. Management Science, 54(3), pp. 477–491.
Cho, S., & Workman, J. E. (2014). Influences of gender, need for affect, and tolerance for risk-taking on use of information sources. Journal of Fashion Marketing and Management, 18(4), pp. 465 – 482
Fay, S. (2008). Selling an opaque product through an intermediary: The case of disguising one’s product. Journal of Retailing, 84 (1), pp. 59-75.
Fay, S., & Xie, J. (2010). The economics of buyer uncertainty: Advance selling vs. probabilistic selling. Management Science, 29(6), pp. 1040–1057.
Fay, S., & Xie, J. (2015). Timing of product allocation: Using probabilistic selling to enhance inventory management. Management Science, 61(2), pp. 474–484.
Fay, S., & Xie, J., & Feng, C. (2015). The effect of probabilistic selling on the optimal product mix. Journal of Retailing, Article in Press.
Fay, S.A., & Xie, J. (2008). Probabilistic Goods: A Creative Way of Selling Products and Services. Marketing Science, 27(4), pp. 674-690.
Gallego, G., & Phillips, R. (2004). Revenue management of flexible products. Manufacturing & service operations management, 6(4), pp. 321–337.
Godes, D., & Mayzlin, D. (2009). Firm-created word-of-mouth communication: Evidence from a field test. Management Science, 28(4), pp. 721-739.
Guo, L. (2006). Consumption flexibility, product configuration, and market competition. Marketing Science. 25(2), pp. 116-130.
Huang, T., & Yu, Y. (2014). Sell Probabilistic Goods? A Behavioral Explanation for Opaque Selling. Marketing Science, 33(5), pp. 743-759.
Jerath, K., & Netessine, S., & Veeraraghavan, S. K. (2009). Selling to strategic customers: Opaque selling strategies. Consumer-Driven Demand and Operations Management Models, Springer, pp. 253–300.
Jerath, K., & Netessine, S., & Veeraraghavan, S. K. (2010). Management with Strategic Customers: Last-Minute Selling and Opaque Selling. Management Science, 56(3), pp. 430-338.
Jiang, Y. (2007). Price discrimination with opaque products. Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, 6, pp. 118–134.
Jing, X., & Xie, J. (2011). Group buying: A new mechanism for selling through social interactions. Management Science, 57(8), pp. 1354–1372.
Johnson, M.S., & Sivadas, E., & Garbarino, E. (2008). Customer satisfaction, perceived risk and affective commitment: an investigation of directions of influence. Journal of Services Marketing, 22(5), pp. 353-362.
Kahneman, D., & versky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), pp. 263-291.
Khan, U., & Dhar, R. (2010). Price-framing effects on the purchase of hedonic and utilitarian bundles. Journal of Marketing Research, 47(6), pp1090-1099.
Kim, H., K. & Lee, M. and Jung, M. (2005). Perceived risk and risk-reduction strategies for high-technology services. Asia Pacific Advances in Consumer Research, 16(2), pp. 171-179.
Laroche, M., & Yang, Z., & McDougall, G.H.G., & Bergeron, J. (2005). Internet versus bricks-and-mortar retailers: An investigation into intangibility and its consequences. Journal of Retailing, 81(4), pp. 251–267.
Lascu, D. -N., & Bearden, W., O. & Rose, R. (1995). Norm extremity and interpersonal influences on consumer conformity. Journal of Business Research, 32(3), pp. 201-212.
Levin, Y., & McGill, J., & Nediak, M. (2009). Dynamic pricing in the presence of strategic consumers and oligopolistic competition. Management Science, 55(1), pp. 32-46.
Noelle-Neumann, E. (1976). Spiral of Silence. Journal of Communication, 46 (3), pp. 149-173.
Ottaviani, M., & Sørensen, P. N. (2008). The favorite-longshot bias: An overview of the main explanations. D.B. Hausch, W.T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets, North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 83–101.
Park, J., & Lennon, S. J., & Stoel, L. (2005). On-line product presentation: Effects on mood, perceived risk, and purchase intention. Psychology & Marketing, 22(9), pp 695-719.
Rice, D.H., & Fay, S.A, & Xie, J. (2014). Probabilistic selling vs. markdown selling: Price discrimination and management of demand uncertainty in retailing. Intern. J. of Research in Marketing, 31(2), pp. 147–155.
Roselius, T. (1971), Consumer rankings of risk reduction methods. Journal of Marketing, 35 (1), 56-61.
Shapiro, D., & Shi, X. (2008). Market segmentation: The role of opaque travel agencies. Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 17(4), pp. 803–837.
Sheth, J. N., & Venkatesan, M. (1968). Risk-reduction processes in repetitive consumer behavior. Journal of Marketing Research, V (August), pp307-310.
Sinha, P., & Singh, S. (2014). Product characteristics vis-à-vis consumers’ risk perception: A conceptual study of online shopping. The IUP journal of marketing management, 13(2), pp. 40-57.
Vrolix, V. (2006). Behavioural adaptation, risk compensation, risk homeostasis and moral hazard in traffic safety. Universiteit Hasselt, Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid.
Wu, Z. & Wu, J. (2015). Price discount and capacity planning under demand postponement with opaque selling. Decision Support Systems, 76(August), pp24-34.
Xiao, Y., & Chen, J. (2014). Evaluating the potential effects from probabilistic selling of similar products. Naval Research Logistics, 61(8), pp. 604-620.
Zhang, Z., & Joseph, K., & Subramaniam, R. (2014). Probabilistic selling in quality-differentiated markets. Management science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–19.
Zheng, G. (2006). Which way to go? — Analysis of gaming revenue enhancement approaches for Macau. Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, 6(1), pp. 33-39.
Zouaoui, F., & Rao, B.V. (2009). Dynamic pricing of opaque airline tickets. Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, 8(2/3), pp. 148–154.