| 研究生: |
張恩豪 Chang, En-Hao |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
自願性財務預測與公司治理之關連性研究 The Relationship among Voluntary Disclosures Financial Forecasts and Corporate Governance |
| 指導教授: |
吳清在
Wu, Tsing-Zai |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 會計學系 Department of Accountancy |
| 論文出版年: | 2006 |
| 畢業學年度: | 94 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 72 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 自願性財務預測 、完整式財務預測 、家族董監事席次比 、股票酬勞計畫 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Voluntary disclosures financial forecasts, Complete financial forecasts, Stock compensation plan, Familial directors over board directors |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:130 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
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隨著證劵市場的活絡,財務報導已無法及時反應公司價值,而導致管理當局與投資人之間資訊不對稱(Information Asymmetry),因此,公司可能有意願藉由自願性盈餘預測以降低其代理成本。在1991年,證期會(現今金管會)要求上市櫃公司必須強制揭露財務預測。然而,自1997年金融風暴起,我國上市櫃公司調降財務預測事件不斷,投資者因為上市櫃公司無預警調降財測所導致的損失,在我國股市中已然滋生許多問題,其中也包括上市櫃公司大股東利用財務預測資訊,操弄股價等股市不公平的現象與結果。財務預測的修正是因為外在環境變化急遽,若不修正則深怕會嚴重影響投資人的決策,造成其損失,此修正是投資者可理解的。不過,有太多的事例證明,很多上市櫃公司財務預測大幅修正,是因盈餘的修正,如淨利修正為淨損,或者是虧損修正成淨利,進一步深究,皆發現此為公司管理當局操弄財務報導所造成的結果。於是金管會於2005年將強制性財務預測的相關規定取消,改採行自願性財務預測以避免業者操弄財務預測報導,以達到自利的目的。
本研究首先探討2005年台灣上市櫃公司提供自願性財務預測是否會有資訊內涵,並以事件研究法針對來探討公司提供自願性財務預測之市場反應,經由實證結果發現自願性財務預測確實具有資訊內涵。其次,本文也探討公司提供自願性財務預測之考量,如公司是否提供自願性財務預測與公司治理結構、公司特質之關連性,經由實證發現公司是否提供自願性財務預測與公司治理結構(如家族性董監事席次比與存在股票酬勞計畫)、公司特質(如權益報酬率、公司規模、分析師盈餘預測之數目)有關,此外本文進一步探討公司提供完整式性財務預測之考量,研究發現除了原先顯著之變數外,尚受到外部董監席次比與董事會規模所影響。
As the security market becomes rising and flourishing, the values of firms are not easily reacting from financial statements. And this results in information asymmetry between management and investors.
According to agency theory, if the managements do not disclose the information of firms in other manners, the investors have to increase the agency cost to understand the firms. Recently, most firms do the voluntary disclosures in other manners. In 1991, the Securities and Futures Bureau (SFB) requested the Publicly Listed Companies to do voluntary disclosures. Since Asian financial meltdown in 1997, more and more Publicly Listed Companies adjust their financial forecast downward. Because the investors are not notified, it resulted in their losses and many problems in the stock market. It also included that controlling shareholders manipulated the stock price by using the information of financial forecast. Financial forecasts revise enormously on account of external environment changing fiercely; even affect the investors’ participation in stock market. The investors will make allowances for it, after all we cannot know everything in advanced. But too many evidences show that the Publicly Listed Companies adjust their financial forecast downward, such as great profit becomes losses or losses turn into profit in a very short time. Therefore Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) repeal of the regulation of Publicly Listed Companies prepare financial forecast to avoid they raising stock price. From 2005, financial forecast is not longer compulsory to disclose, but voluntarily disclose.
This paper first discuss if the announcement of financial forecast will make the stock price abnormally fluctuate. This paper use event study methods to examine the information content of financial forecast and the effect on stock price for firms which listed on TSE & OTC. The period of data collection is 2005. Second, aimed at the styles of corporate governance and the difference of whether voluntary financial forecasts are announced or not to test to the difference of financial forecast under different types to inference the difference of information content.
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校內:2056-06-06公開