臺灣地區降雨量豐沛，但因降雨時空分布不均、地形陡峻及河川短促等特性，使水資源蓄存與調配不易，供水系統長期面臨缺水風險，水庫營運管理不僅需著重短期供需平衡外，更應從永續供水觀點重視系統長期穩定性。基於此，本研究以南化水庫與甲仙攔河堰系統為研究對象，建立兼顧可靠性(Reliability)、韌性(Resilience)與脆弱性(Vulnerability)之評估架構，以體積可靠度、最大連續缺水旬數、最大累積缺水量及最大缺水率之RRV指標描述系統缺水特性，再透過多準則決策整合為永續性指標(Sustainability Index, SI)，作為不同營運策略比較與優選之依據。本研究以未來4、3、2及1個月累積需水量建立需求導向之營運規線，另配合1959-2024年之歷史入流量計算未來缺水機率與過去水文乾旱資訊來決定供水量，本研究共建構六種優選模式，結果顯示本研究所建議以需水量為導向的營運規線有較佳之永續性指標，其值隨供水係數隨年、半年及季變化由0.649改善至0.659，再增至0.712，優於現況營運的0.371。另增加考慮未來缺水機率可獲得更好的水庫營運結果。如考慮固定缺水機率門檻永續指標為0.732，變動缺水機率門檻永續指標可改善至0.749。六種優選模式中以同時考慮未來缺水機率及過去水文乾旱資訊並配合需求導向之營運規線最佳，其永續指標為0.751，遠高於現況營運0.371與其他優選模式0.649-0.749。藉由整合需求量規線、未來缺水機率及SSI資訊，本研究期望建立一套兼顧供需平衡、缺水風險控制與長期供水穩定性之水庫永續營運評估與優選方法，作為未來水庫調度與水資源管理決策之參考。

This study develops a sustainable reservoir operation framework for the Nanhua Reservoir and Jiaxian Weir system to improve long-term water supply stability and reduce water shortage risk. Reliability, resilience, and vulnerability were evaluated using volumetric reliability, maximum consecutive shortage periods, maximum cumulative shortage volume, and maximum shortage ratio, and these indicators were integrated into a Sustainability Index (SI) through a multi-criteria decision-making method. Demand-based rule curves were established based on the cumulative demand for the next 4, 3, 2, and 1 months. Historical inflow data from 1959 to 2024 were used to estimate future water shortage probabilities and calculate hydrological drought information using the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). Six optimization models were proposed to compare with current operation. The results show that the SI improved from 0.371 under current operation to 0.649-0.751 under the optimization models. The best performance was obtained by combining demand-based rule curves, future shortage probability, and SSI information, indicating that the proposed framework can support more sustainable reservoir operation and water resources management.

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