海洋島嶼型國家公園的生態旅遊發展，並非單純增加遊客人次或創造觀光收益的問題，而是涉及自然資源保育、交通可及性、遊憩承載、環境教育、地方生活與治理能力等多重目標。基於此，本研究以澎湖南方四島國家公園為案例，探討海洋島嶼型國家公園生態旅遊永續發展的系統結構、動態機制及治理意涵。
本研究首先整合環境倫理、永續發展、保護區治理、永續旅遊、生態旅遊與社會—生態系統等相關理論，建立海洋島嶼型國家公園生態旅遊永續發展之概念基礎；其次，運用「驅力—狀態—反應」（Driving Force–State–Response, DSR）架構，辨識及組織生態旅遊吸引力、旅遊方便性、宣傳效果、遊客人次、旅遊壓力、遊憩承載狀態與治理回應等關鍵變數，並結合系統思考建構質性因果模型。其後，以實際開放登島且資料相對完整之東吉嶼與東嶼坪嶼為主要建模範圍，將遊客人次設定為存量，遊客增加率與減少率設定為流量，並納入交通供給、季節變化、旅遊方便性、生態旅遊吸引力、宣傳效果與旅遊壓力等輔助變數，建構系統動力學之存量—流量模型。
研究結果顯示，海洋島嶼型國家公園生態旅遊永續發展並非由單一因素或線性因果關係所決定，而是海洋與島嶼生態環境、交通條件、遊客需求、資訊傳播、資源承載與治理回應共同作用下形成的動態過程。系統主要包含生態旅遊吸引力、旅遊方便性與旅遊宣傳等回饋迴路。滿意遊客與社群傳播可提高目的地能見度，形成促進遊客增加的增強回饋；然而，當旺季遊客集中並逐漸接近交通運能與遊憩承載條件時，旅遊方便性下降、遊憩品質受限與旅遊壓力增加，將進一步削弱生態旅遊吸引力與後續到訪意願，形成調節遊客成長的平衡回饋。此一結果顯示，海洋島嶼的有限空間、交通依賴與環境敏感性，會使遊客成長的正向效益更容易轉化為承載壓力與治理負擔。
模型能合理呈現南方四島國家公園在相對穩定營運期間之遊客成長、季節波動與階段性變化；疫情期間實際遊客人次與模擬結果之差距，則反映外部衝擊及結構條件改變對島嶼旅遊系統的明顯影響，亦凸顯海洋島嶼在交通中斷、公共衛生事件與環境變動下的高度脆弱性。2024年至2028年基準模擬顯示，系統仍具有明顯季節性波動，但旺季遊客成長動能逐漸減弱，呈現受到交通承載、生態吸引力與旅遊壓力共同調節的動態平衡，而非持續且無限制的線性成長。
本研究認為，海洋島嶼型國家公園的治理，不應將島嶼視為一般觀光目的地的縮小版本，而應正視其海陸生態連通、資源有限、交通依賴、環境敏感與外部衝擊承受能力較低等特性。生態旅遊治理亦不宜僅以增加遊客人次或設定固定人數上限為目標，而應由單一數量管理轉向整合性與調適性治理。管理單位應依據季節變化、交通運能、遊客集中程度、敏感棲地狀態及遊憩品質，建立動態承載管理、預約分流與交通調節制度，並同步強化長期環境監測、生態解說、資訊揭露、地方參與與收益回饋機制。
在理論與方法上，本研究將海洋島嶼型國家公園界定為具有高度海陸連通性、環境敏感性與治理複雜性的社會—生態系統，並整合DSR架構與系統動力學，使永續發展指標由靜態描述工具轉化為可呈現因果關係、回饋機制與時間變化的動態分析架構。在實務上，本研究所建立之模型可作為管理者進行情境思考、政策溝通、交通調節、遊客管理與調適性治理之輔助工具。研究結果亦說明，海洋島嶼不僅是需要被保護的脆弱空間，更是推動海洋保育、島嶼永續發展與社會—生態系統治理的重要實驗場域，其治理經驗可為其他海洋島嶼型保護區之政策規劃與跨案例比較提供參考。

As environmental pressures intensify across marine and island settings, ecotourism in protected areas requires governance approaches capable of addressing ecological sensitivity, transport constraints, local benefits, and institutional responses as interdependent system dynamics. Taking the South Penghu Marine National Park as an empirical case, this dissertation develops a system dynamics model for the sustainable development of ecotourism in marine island-based national parks. The study integrates environmental ethics, protected-area governance, sustainable tourism, ecotourism, sustainability indicators, natural capital, and the Driving Force–State–Response (DSR) framework. Key variables, including ecotourism attractiveness, travel convenience, information dissemination, publicity effect, visitor numbers, tourism pressure, carrying capacity, and governance response, are translated into causal loop diagrams and a stock–flow model. The empirical model focuses on Dongji Islet and Dongyuping Islet, where landing-based ecotourism and visitor statistics are relatively complete. Model verification examines the consistency of model boundaries, causal structure, parameterisation, dimensional coherence, and historical behaviour reproduction. The findings indicate that sustainable ecotourism should not be interpreted as a linear trajectory of visitor growth, but as a dynamic governance process shaped by the interactions among ecological attractiveness, transport accessibility, pressure accumulation, carrying-capacity constraints, and adaptive institutional responses. By translating the DSR logic from a classificatory framework into a feedback-based system dynamics model, this dissertation provides a transferable analytical approach for marine island protected areas and argues that future management should move beyond visitor-growth-oriented strategies towards ecological integrity, recreational quality, local well-being, and governance resilience.

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