本論文旨在探討未完成訂單該非財務指標之價值攸關性，並進一步探討經濟政策不確定性（Economic Policy Uncertainty, EPU）之調節效果。由於未完成訂單指標與製造業公司的營運直接相關，因此本研究選擇 1997 年至 2023 年的製造業公司作為樣本進行研究。本研究結果顯示，在經濟政策不確定性較高的環境下，未完成訂單指標之價值攸關性顯著增強。本研究進一步透過敏感性分析與穩健性測試確認實證結果之可靠性與穩定性，包含年度固定效果及產業固定效果之納入與替代變數的測試，結果仍一致。並進行橫斷面分析，探討公司規模與產業特性對研究結論之影響。本研究之結果可補足未完成訂單指標與宏觀經濟間之學術研究缺口，並提供實務上投資人的判斷依據。

This study investigates the value relevance of order backlog (ODB), a key non-financial indicator, and further examines the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on this relationship. Given the direct connection between ODB and the operational performance of manufacturing firms, this research focuses on U.S. publicly listed manufacturing companies from 1997 to 2023. Empirical results indicate that the value relevance of ODB is significantly enhanced under conditions of elevated economic policy uncertainty. To ensure the robustness and reliability of the findings, this study conducts a series of sensitivity analyses and robustness checks, including the incorporation of year and industry fixed effects as well as alternative variable specifications. The results remain consistent across these tests. Additionally, cross-sectional analyses are conducted to examine whether firm size and industry characteristics influence the main findings. This study contributes to the literature by addressing the research gap between non-financial performance indicators and macroeconomic uncertainty, and provides practical implications for investors in evaluating firm value.

Alessandria, G., Kaboski, J. P., & Midrigan, V. (2010). The great trade collapse of 2008-09: an inventory adjustment?
Almeida, H., Campello, M., & Weisbach, M. S. (2004). The cash flow sensitivity of cash. The journal of Finance, 59(4), 1777-1804.
Amiram, D., Huang, S., & Rajgopal, S. (2020). Does financial reporting misconduct pay off even when discovered? Review of Accounting Studies, 25(3), 811-854.
Atanassov, J., Julio, B., & Leng, T. (2015). The Bright Side of Political Uncertainty: The Case of R&D. Social Science Electronic Publishing, Rochester. In.
Baik, B., & Ahn, T. (2007). Changes in order backlog and future returns. Seoul Journal of Business, 13(2), 105-126.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The quarterly journal of economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
Banker, R., Barber, R., Hollie, D., & Park, H.-U. (2024). Order backlog and its association with fundamental analysis metrics and future earnings. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 62(4), 1733-1753.
Bansal, R., & Yaron, A. (2004). Risks for the long run: A potential resolution of asset pricing puzzles. The journal of Finance, 59(4), 1481-1509.
Baum, C. F., Caglayan, M., Ozkan, N., & Talavera, O. (2006). The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on non-financial firms' demand for liquidity. Review of financial economics, 15(4), 289-304.
Behn, B. (1996). Value implications of unfilled order backlogs. Advances in Accounting, 14(1), 61-84.
Berkman, H., Jacobsen, B., & Lee, J. B. (2011). Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns. Journal of financial Economics, 101(2), 313-332.
Binz, O. (2022). Managerial response to macroeconomic uncertainty: implications for firm profitability. The Accounting Review, 97(5), 89-117.
Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. econometrica, 77(3), 623-685.
Bordo, M. D., Duca, J. V., & Koch, C. (2016). Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level US evidence over several decades. Journal of Financial stability, 26, 90-106.
Brogaard, J., & Detzel, A. (2015). The asset-pricing implications of government economic policy uncertainty. Management science, 61(1), 3-18.
Cachon, G. 鈋. r. P., & Terwiesch, C. (2003). Matching supply with demand: An introduction to operations management. McGraw-Hill Custom Pub.
Callander, S., & Wilson, C. H. (2008). Context-dependent voting and political ambiguity. Journal of Public Economics, 92(3-4), 565-581.
Chen, P.-F., Lee, C.-C., & Zeng, J.-H. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment: evidence from the US market. Applied Economics, 51(31), 3423-3435.
Dbouk, W., Moussawi-Haidar, L., & Jaber, M. Y. (2020). The effect of economic uncertainty on inventory and working capital for manufacturing firms. International Journal of Production Economics, 230, 107888.
Dechow, P. M., Ge, W., Larson, C. R., & Sloan, R. G. (2011). Predicting material accounting misstatements. Contemporary accounting research, 28(1), 17-82.
Duchin, R. (2010). Cash holdings and corporate diversification. The journal of Finance, 65(3), 955-992.
Feltham, G. (1995). Valuation and Clean Surplus Accounting for Operating and Financial Activities. Contemporary accounting research.
Francis, J., Nanda, D., & Wang, X. (2006). Re-examining the effects of regulation fair disclosure using foreign listed firms to control for concurrent shocks. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 41(3), 271-292.
Gao, J., Grinstein, Y., & Wang, W. (2017). Cash holdings, precautionary motives, and systematic uncertainty. Precautionary Motives, and Systematic Uncertainty (June 21, 2017).
Gaur, V., & Seshadri, S. (2005). Hedging inventory risk through market instruments. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 7(2), 103-120.
Gilliam, T. A. (2014). Revenue management: The use of order backlog to meet revenue reporting targets The Florida State University].
Gu, L., & Huang, D. (2010). Sales order backlogs and momentum profits. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(7), 1564-1575.
Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2016). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of financial studies, 29(3), 523-564.
Jiambalvo, J., Rajgopal, S., & Venkatachalam, M. (2002). Institutional ownership and the extent to which stock prices reflect future earnings. Contemporary accounting research, 19(1), 117-145.
Jory, S. R., Khieu, H. D., Ngo, T. N., & Phan, H. V. (2020). The influence of economic policy uncertainty on corporate trade credit and firm value. Journal of Corporate Finance, 64, 101671.
Kang, W., Lee, K., & Ratti, R. A. (2014). Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 42-53.
Kang, W., & Ratti, R. A. (2013). Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 26, 305-318.
Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. The quarterly journal of economics, 51(2), 209-223.
Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, uncertainty and profit. Hart, Schaffner and Marx.
Krajewski, L. J., & Malhotra, M. K. (2022). Operations management: Processes and supply chains. Pearson.
Leduc, S., & Liu, Z. (2016). Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 82, 20-35.
Lee, S. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for Korea? East Asian Economic Review, 22(1), 29-54.
Lev, B., & Thiagarajan, S. R. (1993). Fundamental information analysis. Journal of Accounting research, 31(2), 190-215.
Loh, R. K., & Stulz, R. M. (2018). Is sell‐side research more valuable in bad times? The journal of Finance, 73(3), 959-1013.
Mentzer, J. T., & Konrad, B. P. (1991). An efficiency/effectiveness approach to logistics performance analysis. Journal of business logistics, 12(1), 33.
Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2012). Uncertainty about government policy and stock prices. The journal of Finance, 67(4), 1219-1264.
Pástor, Ľ., & Veronesi, P. (2013). Political uncertainty and risk premia. Journal of financial Economics, 110(3), 520-545.
Rajgopal, S., Shevlin, T., & Venkatachalam, M. (2003). Does the stock market fully appreciate the implications of leading indicators for future earnings? Evidence from order backlog. Review of Accounting Studies, 8,461-492.