| 研究生: |
毛嬙 Mao, Chiang |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
發展再生能源對電力需求及經濟影響:以離岸風力為例 The Impacts of Developing Renewable Energy on Electricity Demand and Economy: the Case of Offshore Wind Power |
| 指導教授: |
郭彥廉
Kuo, Yen-Lien |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2017 |
| 畢業學年度: | 105 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 54 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 需求彈性 、再生能源 、電力需求 、產業關聯表 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | price elasticity, renewable energy, electricity demand, input-output model |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:155 下載:0 |
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能源自主、多元是一個國家能源安全之重要指標,台灣自然資源有限,目前超過99%之能源供給仰賴國外進口,其中,所有初級能源中,化石燃料就占了91.3%,不論從自主性或是多元性方面來看,台灣的能源安全亟待提升,因此,發展自主能源、分散來源是目前刻不容緩的事情。台灣有多種再生能源的潛力,另外,再生能源生產成本受國際能源價格波動有限,加上多元性的再生能源,對提升台灣能源安全有極大的潛力。再生能源是一種清潔能源,使用再生能源發電對環境造成的影響要比使用傳統的化石燃料小得多,再生能源發電的過程(如風力發電,太陽能發電等)幾乎不產生與空氣污染相關的排放(氮氧化物、氧化硫和顆粒物等),因此減少了對人類健康(特別是慢性疾病問題)的不利影響。但是再生能源發電穩定性非常低,雖然資源普遍存在但因蘊藏密度低無法大量供給,發電成本相較於傳統發電成本高。電力是重要的生產要素,若成本全部反映到電價上,電價提高勢必對各產業部門產生負面衝擊,進而對整體經濟帶來負面的影響,這也是推動再生能用過程中最大的阻礙。為了釐清不同產業對電力需求的彈性以及替代要素彈性,本文依照行政院主計總處行業標準分類,個別探討不同產業部門的電力需求彈性以及替代要素彈性。台灣發展離岸風力發電雖然會造成電力價格上升,但同時也會增加對台灣的總需求,本文利用投入產出模型,估計發展離岸風力發電每年會對台灣增加多少總需求。另外,發展離岸風力發電會造成電力價格上升,勢必會對台灣的物價造成影響,因此,本文除了估計電力價格的上漲幅度,亦利用投入產出模型計算電力價格上升之後對其他產品價格之影響以及對台灣躉售物價指數之影響。
Energy independence, diversity is an important indicator of national energy security. Taiwan has limited natural resources. More than 99% of the energy supply depends on foreign imports. Whether in terms of independence or diversity, Taiwan's energy security needs to be improved. Taiwan has a variety of renewable energy potential. Besides, renewable energy cost are insensitive to international oil price fluctuation. Renewable energy is a clean energy. However, the stability of using renewable energy to generate electricity is very low. Although the renewable energy is widespread, it cannot be supplied in large quantities because of its low density. So the cost of renewable energy is higher than the cost of traditional power generation. Electricity is an important factor in production, if the cost is fully reflected in the price, the price increase is bound to have a negative impact on the various industrial sectors, and thus the overall impact of the economy. In order to clarify the elasticity of the demand for electricity in different industries and the elasticity of substitution factors, this paper estimates the power demand elasticity and the elasticity of alternative elements in different industrial sectors. Although developing offshore wind power will cause electricity prices to rise, it will also increase the investment in Taiwan. This paper uses the input-output model to estimate how much investment will increase if Taiwan develop offshore wind power. In addition, developing offshore wind power will cause electricity prices rise, it is bound to affect the price index of Taiwan. Therefore, in addition to estimating the rate of increase in electricity prices, this paper uses the input-output model to estimate the impact of rising electricity price on other sector’s price and price index.
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英文
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校內:2022-08-15公開