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研究生: 蔡岳撰
Tsai, Yueh-Chuang
論文名稱: 考量Wiener退化過程設計恆定應力加速退化測試抽樣計畫
Designing a Constant-stress Accelerated Degradation Test Acceptance Sampling Plan based on Wiener Process
指導教授: 胡政宏
Hu, Cheng-Hung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 60
中文關鍵詞: 允收抽樣計畫加速退化測試Wiener衰退過程
外文關鍵詞: Acceptance sampling plan, Wiener process, Accelerated degradation test
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  • 當買方收到一批貨時需要判定是否允收此批貨物,用來判斷是否允收的方法可以分為三類,100%全檢、直接允收及允收抽樣計畫。直接允收風險過大,採取全檢又因耗時長且成本過高以至於不符合經濟效益。因此大多數的買方會採取允收抽樣計畫來進行判定,透過制定符合測試的抽樣計畫,利用抽取樣本得到的估計值來與訂定的允收條件做比對,若達到允收條件則允收該批貨物,反之則拒收。
    隨著科技的日新月異,產品的可靠度越來越高,這使得在合理的時間內很難有效得到此類產品的故障數據。因此衍生出利用加速測試來收集產品的數據來克服此一障礙,加速壽命測試(Accelerated Life Testing , ALT)是將產品暴露在更艱困的環境下進行測試(例如高壓、高溫、高電流…等),來加速收集產品壽命的數據,但即使使用了加速壽命測試仍然可能難以在較短的測試時間內獲取足夠的故障數據。對於此類產品加速退化測試 (Accelerated Degradation Test , ADT) 是另一種有效的實驗方式,藉由在艱困的環境中測量產品中會隨著時間推移而退化的品質特性(Quality Characteristic , QC)(例如電路板上的電阻、LED的亮度…等)的退化數據來估算產品的使用壽命。
    在上述的背景下,本研究受LED的數據啟發,希望建立一個加速退化測試退化模型的允收抽樣計畫,其中假設其退化過程服從Wiener衰退過程,並在模型中加入執行成本限制以及生產者及消費者所需承擔之抽樣風險使本模型更貼近現實情況。本模型的目的將探討滿足以上限制條件的情況下整個抽樣計畫所需的最低預算為多少,再根據最低預算求出樣本個數、記錄次數、記錄的時間間隔等決策變數使得估計值的變異數最小,再將結果與所訂定的允收標準做比對,判斷是否允收該項產品。最後以LED的數據來驗證此模型,最後再對其做敏感度分析。

    When buyers receive a batch of goods, they need to decide whether to accept or reject them. Three methods are commonly used: 100% inspection, direct acceptance, and acceptance sampling plans. However, direct acceptance poses high risks, while 100% inspection is time-consuming and costly. Hence, most buyers opt for acceptance sampling plans. These plans involve developing suitable sampling methods, comparing estimated values from samples with acceptance criteria, and accepting or rejecting the batch accordingly.
    With advancing technology, product reliability has increased, making it challenging to collect sufficient failure data in a reasonable timeframe. To overcome this, accelerated life testing (ALT) exposes products to harsher conditions to accelerate data collection on product lifespan. But obtaining enough data in a shorter testing time remains difficult. Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) offers an effective alternative by measuring the degradation of quality characteristics over time in harsh environments.
    Inspired by LED data, this study aims to establish an acceptance sampling plan for constant-stress accelerated degradation testing models. The model assumes Wiener degradation and considers cost constraints and sampling risks for both producers and consumers. The objective is to determine the minimum budget required for the sampling plan and decide the number of samples, recorded measurements, and time intervals to minimize estimated value variance. The results are compared with acceptance criteria to decide whether to accept the product. Finally, the model is validated using LED data, followed by sensitivity analysis.

    摘要 i 致謝 vi 目錄 viii 表目錄 x 圖目錄 xi 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究流程 3 1.4 論文架構 4 第二章 文獻探討 5 2.1 允收抽樣計畫 5 2.1.1 計量型抽樣計畫 5 2.1.2 計數型抽樣計畫 6 2.2 壽命測試抽樣計畫 8 2.2.1 視失效個數為實驗終止臨界值(Failure-censored) 8 2.2.2 視實驗時間為實驗終止臨界值(Time-censored) 9 2.3 退化實驗 10 2.3.1 退化路徑 11 2.3.2 加速退化測試 12 2.3.3 退化測試抽樣計畫 15 2.4 小結 15 第三章 Wiener加速退化模型抽樣計畫 16 3.1 問題描述 16 3.2 參數符號與模型假設 17 3.2.1 模型符號 17 3.2.2 模型假設 19 3.3 模型建立 21 3.4 模型求解 24 3.4.1 求得 的最大概似估計值 24 3.4.2 利用 Fisher information matrix 來求得估計值的變異數 25 3.4.3 軟體求解步驟 27 3.4.4 求得決策變數 c 27 3.5 小結 29 第四章 模型驗證與分析 31 4.1 案例情境說明 31 4.2 案例結果分析 32 4.2.1 五應力CSADT模型驗證 32 4.2.2 兩應力CSADT模型驗證 37 4.3 小結 53 第五章 結論與建議 55 5.1 研究結論 55 5.2 未來方向 56 參考文獻 58

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