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研究生: 廖軒儀
Liao, Xuan-Yi
論文名稱: 臺南市城郊地區 在光電政策下的Water-Energy-Food-Land Nexus系統動態與情境模擬
System Dynamics and Scenario Simulation of the Water-Energy-Food-Land Nexus under Solar Energy Policies in the Peri-Urban Areas of Tainan City
指導教授: 李俊霖
Lee, Chun-Lin
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 規劃與設計學院 - 都市計劃學系
Department of Urban Planning
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 236
中文關鍵詞: Water-Energy-Food NEXUS土地使用城郊地區光電政策系統生態模型系統動態模擬
外文關鍵詞: Water-Energy-Food NEXUS, Land Use, Peri-Urban Areas, Solar Energy Policy, System Ecology Model, System Dynamics Simulation
相關次數: 點閱:122下載:61
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  • 隨著城市規模增長與資源消耗增加,穩定的資源供給在氣候變遷下成為關鍵挑戰。水、糧食與能源作為區域永續發展的核心資源,其交互作用構成「Water-Energy-Food NEXUS」概念,此概念於2011年世界經濟論壇提出,強調以系統思維解析資源互動與供需安全,對區域發展提供政策建議。城郊地區作為城市與農村的過渡地帶,不僅是水、糧食與能源的主要供應區域,也因人口與經濟增長承受都市擴張壓力。然而,臺灣相關研究對城郊資源管理仍不足,亟需更多建議以應對未來挑戰。近年來,臺南市光電政策推動能源轉型,但其快速成長導致農地破碎化與污染,使土地轉為光電設施載體,對當地水、糧食、能源與土地系統的影響仍待驗證。基於此本研究透過文獻回顧與在地分析,運用系統模擬方法建立「臺南市城郊 Water-Energy-Food-Land Nexus 系統」,涵蓋水、農業、能源及社會經濟四大子系統,並以糧食資產、漁業資產、光電裝置容量、人口、製造業、商業及多種土地類型作為存量,模擬光電政策對各資源系統的影響,進一步調整地面型與屋頂型光電配置,探討不同情境對系統資源的影響差異,以提供政策建議,促進資源有效管理。結果顯示,光電政策雖促進能源轉型與自主,但也導致農漁土地轉為光電土地,直接衝擊糧食與漁業供給,並間接影響水資源與地方社會經濟系統,帶來資源利用現況的改變。調整後的政策情境顯示,各方案均對系統模型產生影響,且無絕對優劣,未來若能進一步釐清其系統性影響,將有助於促進臺南城郊地區 Water-Energy-Food-Land Nexus 系統的永續發展。

    As urban expansion and resource consumption grow, ensuring a stable resource supply under climate change has become a key challenge. Water, food, and energy are essential for regional sustainability, forming the "Water-Energy-Food NEXUS" concept introduced at the 2011 World Economic Forum. This framework applies a systems approach to analyze resource interactions and security, providing policy recommendations. Peri-urban areas serve as key resource suppliers but also face urban expansion pressures. In Taiwan, research on peri-urban resource management remains insufficient. In Tainan, rapid solar energy development has led to farmland fragmentation and pollution, converting land into solar facilities. This study establishes the "Tainan Peri-urban Water-Energy-Food-Land Nexus" system through literature review, local analysis, and system modeling, covering water, agriculture, energy, and socioeconomics. It examines how different solar deployment strategies impact resources and proposes policies for better management. Results show that while solar policies drive energy transition, they also reduce farmland and fisheries, indirectly affecting water and the local economy. Policy adjustments reveal varying impacts across scenarios, highlighting the need for further analysis to support sustainable resource planning.

    第一章 緒論1 第一節 研究背景與動機1 第二節 研究目的2 第三節 研究架構2 第四節 研究範圍3 第五節 研究流程4 第二章 文獻回顧5 第一節 城郊地區5 第二節 WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS14 第三節 系統動態模擬25 第四節 文獻回顧總結29 第三章 研究設計30 第一節 研究提問30 第二節 研究架構31 第三節 研究設計32 第四節 研究範圍33 第五節 基礎分析35 第六節 研究步驟48 第四章 系統模型建置50 第一節 建置背景50 第二節 建置成果52 第三節 建置依據54 第四節 資料時間57 第五節 各子系統說明58 第六節 流量參數估算80 第五章 系統模型初始模擬82 第一節 初始模擬時間82 第二節 初始模擬結果83 第三節 初始模擬總結124 第六章 情境模擬與討論126 第一節 情境設定126 第二節 議題討論128 第七章 結論與建議148 第一節 研究結論148 第二節 研究限制及建議151 參考文獻152 附錄一: 系統外部流入資料162 附錄二: 系統流量詳細說明209

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