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研究生: 陳家莉
Chen, Jia-Li
論文名稱: 臺灣央行重貼現率調整政策之有效性
An Effectiveness Assessment of Taiwan Central Bank's Discount Rate Adjustment Policy
指導教授: 王澤世
Wang, Tse-Shih
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 51
中文關鍵詞: 貨幣政策重貼現率通貨膨脹目標貨幣政策傳遞管道
外文關鍵詞: Monetary policy, Discount rate, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy transmission channels
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  • 本研究使用為2003年1月至2022年12月臺灣與G7國家總體資料,以G7國家作為比較基準,探究臺灣重貼現率調整是否對通貨膨脹率有顯著負面效果、央行重貼現率調整政策是否受通膨政策目標影響,與利率管道、匯率管道、資產價格管道及信用管道在臺灣貨幣政策中是否存在等,探討臺灣重貼現率政策有效性。實證結果表明臺灣貨幣政策之重貼現率調整政策並不具有效性,其提高重貼現率時,並未顯著影響通貨膨脹率下降。通貨膨脹率高於政策目標之時,未反映至重貼現率變動之上,且貨幣政策傳遞管道實證研究中也僅存在利率管道,其他管道並不顯著。此一結果可能暗示臺灣貨幣政策在當前形式下存在著一定的限制或不足,需要更多措施加強其效率,因此在未來政策制定上應當考量更多不同因素,以實現更有效率之貨幣政策運作。

    This study utilizes macroeconomic data from January 2003 to December 2022 for both Taiwan and G7 countries, with the G7 countries serving as a comparative benchmark, to explore the effectiveness of Taiwan's discount rate policy. Empirical results indicate that the adjustment policy of the discount rate in Taiwan's Monetary policy lacks effectiveness. When the discount rate is raised, it does not significantly affect the decrease in inflation rates. Moreover, when the inflation rate exceeds the inflation targeting, it is not reflected in changes in the discount rate. Empirical research on monetary policy transmission channels only shows the existence of the interest rate channel, with other channels being insignificant. This result may imply that Taiwan's monetary policy, in its current form, has certain limitations or deficiencies and requires additional measures to enhance its efficiency. Therefore, future policy formulation should consider more diverse factors to achieve more effective operation of monetary policy.

    第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機 2 第三節 研究目的 4 第二章 文獻回顧 5 第一節 政策利率 5 第二節 貨幣政策傳遞管道 6 第三章 研究方法 9 第一節 單根檢定 9 第二節 實證模型 10 第四章 實證結果 14 第一節 變數定義與敘述性統計 14 第二節 單根檢定 19 第三節 迴歸結果 19 第五章 結論與後續建議 36 第一節 研究結論 36 第二節 後續建議 37 參考文獻 38 中文文獻 38 外文文獻 39

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