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研究生： 沙艾瑪
SAEED, ASMA IBRAHIM
論文名稱： 含主客觀指標的熱壓力社會脆弱度：以台灣都市為例
A Social Vulnerability Index to Heat Stress with Subjective and Objective Indicators: The Cases of Taiwanese Cities
指導教授： 郭彥廉
Kuo, Yen-Lien
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工學院 - 自然災害減災及管理國際碩士學位學程
International Master Program on Natural Hazards Mitigation and Management
論文出版年： 2026
畢業學年度： 114
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 144
外文關鍵詞： Heat vulnerability, Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), Analytical Network Process (ANP), Individual vulnerability, Taiwan, Expert judgment
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    • This study develops an individual level Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to heat stress for residents of six major Taiwanese urban areas, integrating subjective and objective indicators weighted via expert judgment using the Analytical Network Process (ANP). National survey data (n = 1,087) from Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung are combined with ANP derived weights from a five expert panel to assess vulnerability across physiological, socioeconomic, occupational, behavioral, and institutional domains. Experts prioritized health status and medical conditions (0.269), mitigation behaviors (0.212), and adaptive capacity (0.206), indicating that individual health and everyday coping strategies are more influential than purely demographic characteristics.
    Survey indicators were normalized to a 0–1 scale, weighted, and aggregated into person specific SVI scores; most respondents exhibit moderate vulnerability (mean = 0.363), but a smaller group shows high or very high scores linked to poor health, chronic disease, heat exposed work, limited cooling access, and weaker mitigation behavior. Descriptive aggregation by place of residence reveals that respondents in Tainan have the highest average SVI, followed by those in New Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, while respondents in Taipei and Taoyuan show lower mean vulnerability, illustrating uneven risk across urban Taiwan. Downscaled AR6 consistent Tmax projections from TCCIP provide contextual information on current and future heat hazards but are not included in the SVI calculation, preserving a clear focus on individual vulnerability. The ANP SVI framework offers a practical tool for identifying high risk individuals and supporting more equitable, person centered heat adaptation strategies in subtropical urban settings.

    ABSTRACT iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv TABLE OF CONTENTS v LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF FIGURES ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS x CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 11 1.1. Global Heat Vulnerability 11 1.2. Regional Trends: Asia 12 1.3. Taiwan: Climatic, Social, and Occupational Context 14 1.4. Research Problem 15 1.5. Research Objectives 16 1.5.1. Main Objective 16 1.5.2. Sub-Objectives 16 1.6. Research Questions 17 1.7. Significance of Study 17 1.8. Scope of the Study 17 CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW 18 2.1. Conceptual Framework for Heat Vulnerability 18 2.1.1. Theoretical Foundations and Social Vulnerability 19 2.1.2. Application of the Analytical Network Process (ANP) 20 2.2. Heat Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity 21 2.3. Physiological and Health Sensitivities 22 2.4. Socioeconomic and Demographic Disparities 23 2.5. Occupational and Work-related Exposure 24 2.6. Infrastructure and Built Environment 25 2.7. Adaptive Capacity and Individual Mitigation Behavior 26 2.8. Institutional and Policy Supports 27 2.9. Heat Vulnerability Indices and Expert Judgement 28 2.10. Gaps in Existing Literature 29 2.11. Chapter Summary 30 CHAPTER III RESEARCH METHODS 31 3.1. Conceptual Framework for this Study 33 3.2. Indicators from the Literature Review 34 3.3. Subjective and Mitigation Behavior Indicators 35 3.4. Integration of Literature Review and Regression Analysis for ANP Weighting 42 3.5. Analytical Network Process (ANP) Model 50 3.5.1. ANP Model Structure 51 3.5.2. Expert Selection 52 3.5.3. Pairwise Comparison Questionnaire and Data Collection 53 3.5.4. Aggregation of Judgments and Weight Derivation 54 3.6. Individual-Level Heat Vulnerability Assessment 55 3.6.1. Data Sources and Sample Size 56 3.6.2. Indicator Aggregation and Normalization for individual SVI score 57 3.6.3. ANP Validation 58 3.7. Heat Hazard Context and Climate Projection Data 59 CHAPTER IV RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 60 4.1. Heat Hazard Indicators from AR6 60 4.2. Indicators for Vulnerability Assessment 62 4.3. ANP Weighting Results 65 4.3.1. Indicator level Weights Within Dimensions 66 4.4. Distribution of Individual Vulnerability Scores 67 4.5. Discussion: Interpreting Individual Heat Vulnerability 68 4.5.1. Individual Vulnerability and High risk Tails 68 4.5.2. Health Status and Chronic Disease as Core Drivers 69 4.5.3. Socioeconomic Position, Work, and Adaptive Capacity 69 4.5.4. Differences in Vulnerability by Place of Residence 70 4.5.5. Implications for Targeted Adaptation and Equity 70 CHAPTER V CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS AND LIMITATIONS 72 5.1. Conclusion 72 5.2. Recommendations 73 5.2.1. Individual focused Health and Social Support 73 5.2.2. Supporting Mitigation Behaviors and Workplace Adaptation 74 5.2.3. Integrating individual SVI into Planning and Policy 75 5.3. Limitations 76 5.3.1. Suggestions for Future Research 77 5.3.2. Practical Application: Individual Self assessment Tool 78 REFERENCES 80 5.4. Appendix A: The questionnaire from National survey 2013 92 5.5. Appendix B: ANP Questionnaire 122 5.6. Appendix C: Summary of selected heat related studies in Taiwan 128 5.7. Appendix D: ANP model links 135

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