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研究生: 施品帆
Shih, Pin-Fin
論文名稱: 亞洲國家自90年代後的匯率相對表現
The relative performance of Asian countries’ exchange rates since 1990s’
指導教授: 王澤世
Wang, Zi-Shi
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2008
畢業學年度: 96
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 41
中文關鍵詞: 實質匯率購買力平價說國外直接投資
外文關鍵詞: Real exchange rate, Purchasing power parity, Foreign direct investment
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  • 本篇主要使用Panel model去評估亞洲國家的匯率相對表現,我們由亞洲國家的實質匯率,國內生產毛額,以及國外直接投資的三者之間的關係去做判斷,藉由觀測各國的截距項,我們可以因此判斷該國貨幣是相對高估或者低估。除此之外,我們亦針對1997年的亞洲金融風暴的匯率表現重新檢視評估。

    實證結果發現亞洲國家自90年代之後,除了新加坡和馬來西亞之外,大多亞洲國家呈現幣值相對低估的現象。而加入新變數(國外直接投資)的模型,在衡量相對匯率表現的效果,也較原先只納入國內生產毛額當作解釋變數的模型來得良好。

    In this paper, we use the panel regression model to measure the relative performance on Asian currency. We measure the relationship between real exchange rate, gross domestic product relative to U.S. and growth in foreign direct investment. By observing the intercept term for every country, we can determine if the currency is relative undervalued or overvalued. In addition, we reassess the relative performance of exchange rate for each country during the Asian finance crisis in 1997.

    The results of our study suggest that almost Asian currency is relative undervalued since 1990s’, except for Malaysia and Singapore. Also, the model with a new independent variable foreign direct investment (FDI) can actually capture a better measurement in currency valuation compared with the model we only taking GDP into consideration.

    摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 III Contents IV Lists of Tables VI List of Figures VII Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Motivation and purpose 2 1.3 Research Framework 3 Chapter 2 Literature Review 4 2.1 Is PPP hold? 4 2.2 Relevant literature on the factors which can affect real exchange rate 5 Chapter 3 Methodology 8 3.1 The Panel models 8 3.2 Datasets 13 3.2.1 Real exchange rate 13 3.2.2 Gross domestic product 13 3.2.3 Foreign direct investment 14 Chapter 4 Empirical Results 15 4.1 Time-series regression for individual country 15 4.2 Panel regression: GDP as independent variable 16 4.2.1 Brief summary 17 4.3 Periodical history assessment 18 4.4 Panel regression: GDP and FDI as independent variables 18 Chapter 5 Conclusion 21 References 38

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