本研究提出了一種評估複合淹水風險的方法框架，結合聯合機率Copula模型和水力模式，分別計算複合淹水事件的重現期和三個淹水指標：家戶住宅的平均最大淹水深度、影響家戶數量和家戶損失，通過多元回歸方法和蒙地卡羅積分法推估所有降雨量和潮位組合的淹水指標，並計算淹水指標的重現期評估複合淹水風險，最後評估三種分別採用不同防洪措施的現況情境，以及氣候變遷下的未來情境。當設定家戶水深0.3m為淹水門檻時，現況的防洪保護能力約為10年重現期，結果符合現有排水設施的防洪保護標準，將防洪設施保護標準代入Copula模型後，得到重現期為8.8年，顯示真實的複合淹水風險和統計模型推估值有差異。本研究評估兩倍抽水情境和高腳屋情境的複合淹水風險，結果顯示兩倍抽水情境的保護能力約為16.8年重現期，高腳屋情境的保護能力約為21.3年重現期，也代表本研究建構的複合淹水風險評估方法可以計算防洪措施的真實保護能力。本研究採用升溫最劇烈的路徑評估氣候變遷下世紀末的複合淹水風險，結果顯示在未來情境中相同重現期的平均最大淹水深度、影響家戶數量和家戶損失都有明顯的增幅，而未來情境的防洪保護能力則介於2.36至3.92年重現期，說明世紀末的複合淹水風險大幅增加。未來情境的複合淹水風險主要來自海平面上升和暴潮偏差增加，使沿海地區暴潮溢淹風險增加，也因海面水位高漲導致排水設施無法有效排水進而提升淹水風險，因此沿海地區需要強化防洪措施以面對未來的挑戰。

This study combines a bivariate copula model and a hydraulic model to assess the compound flood risk. Multiple regression and Monte Carlo integration methods were used to estimate the return period of the average maximum flood depth, the number of affected households, and the household losses. The results showed that the return period of the current flood protection capacity is 10 years, with a flood threshold of 0.3m, which matches the drainage system's flood protection standards. Substituting these standards into the copula model yielded a return period of 8.8 years, indicating a difference between the actual compound flood risk and the statistical estimate. This study also assessed compound flood risk under the double-pumping and raised-house scenarios. The results showed that the return period of protection capacity under the double-pumping scenario is 16.8 years, whereas it is 21.3 years under the raised-house scenario. The results of the return period analysis demonstrate that the combined flood risk assessment method developed in this study can estimate the actual protection capacity of flood control measures. This study assessed the combined flood risk at the end of the century under climate change. The return periods of the average maximum flood depth, the number of affected households, and household losses increased significantly in the future scenario. The flood protection capacity return period decreases to 2.36-3.92, indicating a substantial increase in the combined flooding risk at the end of the century. The compound flood risk in the future scenario mainly stems from sea-level rise and storm surge under climate change. Rising sea levels increased the risk of storm surge overflows and decreased drainage in coastal areas. In conclusion, coastal areas need to strengthen flood-prevention measures to address future challenges.

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