臺灣在極端氣候及強烈地震的條件下，大規模崩塌及其引致湧浪，將對大壩及水庫沿岸地區產生嚴重災害。有鑒於大規模崩塌風險評估及南化水庫之重要性，本研究乃以南化水庫一號順向坡為研究案例，建置一個水庫邊坡崩塌之災害風險評估方法，用以量化評估水庫大規模崩塌及湧浪的風險。本研究主要方法首先結合不連續變形分析法、湧浪評估法及點估計法，建置一個水庫邊坡大規模崩塌風險量化評估方法。再利用本文評估方法，探討南化水庫一號順向坡於常時及地震時情境下之崩土入庫影響範圍、滑動總崩塌量、入庫之滑動崩塌量、崩土入水速度及引致水壩之湧浪高度等值，及其諸發生機率。本文研究結果顯示本文方法可獲得合理的量化風險值。本文模擬南化水庫一號順向坡之最危險地形風險分析最大值結果，顯示崩土距坡趾最遠距離為165m處(發生機率為16.6%)；滑動總崩塌量為1.91百萬立方公尺(發生機率為84.1%)；入庫崩塌量為1.48百萬立方公尺(發生機率為39.6%)；入水速度為19.0m/s(發生機率為0.3%)；崩塌引致最小湧浪高度為0.36m(發生機率為78.2%)，最大湧浪高度為3.12m(發生機率為19.0%)。本文亦估算一號順向坡崩塌引致南化大壩最大溢堤機率，平時為5.61E-6 ，地震時為1.23E-5。本文研究結果可提供大規模崩塌風險評估相關研究與實務之參考。

Taiwan is exposed to extreme weather and strong seismic forces. Following a large-scale collapse event, the resulting surge from the reservoir will pose a serious threat to the reservoir and coastal areas. In light of a need of the large-scale collapse risk assessment and the ever importance of Nanhua reservoir, this research is a case study of Nanhua reservoir No. 1 downward slope, with the reservoir side slope large-scale collapse of disaster risk quantification assessment method modelled with a combined method of (1) discontinuous deformation analysis method (2) swell evaluation method (3) point estimation method, for the purpose of assessing the risk of reservoir large-scale collapse and swell.
This paper is to then evaluate and discuss the Nanhua reservoir one downward slope in the normal and under seismic conditions, the affected range of collapsed soils, the total collapsed amount of the landside, the collapsed amount into the reservoir, the speed of the collapsed soil when entering the reservoir, and the resulting swell height, and its’ respective rate of occurrence. The results of this paper show that the method of this paper can obtain reasonable quantitative risk value. This paper intends to estimate the maximum probability of dam overtopping caused by the collapse of the NanHua reservoir No.1 downward slope. This paper research results can provide large-scale collapse risk assessment related research and practical reference.

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