2009年8月颱風莫拉克對臺灣造成嚴重影響，特別是大規模崩塌災害，雖然數量比例不高，但是造成的影響卻極為嚴重，為了瞭解這種災害進而降低其衝擊，因而開始了本研究。
為了確立大規模崩塌與促崩雨量之間所存在之特定關係，進而應用於大規模崩塌預警作業，本研究收集了2004年至2016年間衛星圖像相關案例以及野外調查數據、重大事件報告和台灣寬頻地震網觀測資料。
本研究以「崩塌面積超過10公頃或崩塌土方量達10萬立方公尺以上或崩塌深度在10公尺以上的崩塌地」之大規模崩塌定義進行篩選，最終選定107個案例(28處確定發生時間案例、79處未能確認確切發生時間案例)與149處大規模崩塌潛勢區進行分析探討。
透過安全係數概念，本研究嘗試將相關因子變量維度降低，最終將分析因子限縮於促崩雨量R、崩塌厚度D、等價摩擦角ϕ與滑動面角度θ四個因子，進行統計回歸分析。
進行線性迴歸分析作業時，依據極限平衡法概念，將前述四個因子再行降維，以兩個無因次參數R/D、ϕ/θ進行分析；進行非線性迴歸分析作業時，則假定存在D為應變數其他三因子為自變數之非線性關係，透過拔靴法重採樣執行非線性回歸以評估參數不確定性。
根據獲得數據，線性回歸分析結果存在8%型一錯誤，非線性回歸分析結果存在1%型二錯誤。 通過統計指標比較，非線性回歸分析具有結果具有較好預測能力。
基於預警操作需要，較保守指標可以降低管理操作面臨之風險。因此，根據本研究結果，建議應考慮以線性或非線性分析下邊界線作為LSL臨界值。結合實時降雨預報，統計指標變化將動態提供趨勢信息，有助於增加相關疏散行動應變時間。

Typhoon Morakot brought Taiwan a serious impact those people in Taiwan was startled that we know nothing about this kind of phenomenon. In order to reduce the risk of large-scale landslide, people should do something for it. That is the origin of this study. This study focused on establishing a specific relationship between triggering rainfall and large-scale landslide to make people know more of it and applied the result of this study on early warning works.

This study did the literature review first for better understanding the past studies. After grabbed the key issues, this study collected case data during 2004 to 2016 then screened the target study cases as the preparedness. Based on the concept of safety factor, this study reduced the dimension of related factors, and focused on 4 factors, R, D, ϕ, and θ, this study practiced on both linear regression analysis and nonlinear regression analysis to establish the relationships between 4 factors. Both linear and nonlinear relationships were validated by the 3 groups of data.

8% Type-I errors and 1% Type-II errors were found in linear and nonlinear regression respectively, nonlinear regression had better predictive ability was proved comparison of statistical results. The management value of evacuation should be setup 3 to 6 hrs. before the cumulative rainfall value reaches the critical line. Although the model verified the rationality, it does not mean this model could be used directly in another region outside Taiwan. Those cases want to apply this model should be the newborn cases.

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