為因應2025年再生能源27GW的目標，淨負載曲線與其變動量將呈現與現在截然不同的趨勢，增加電力調度的難度，因此調頻備轉容量必須重新評估。本研究利用2018年負載、太陽能發電、風力發電的變化量、預測誤差、皮爾森相關係數的歷史資料推估2018年四季電力系統各時段應提供的升降載率及調頻備轉容量，並以實績資料佐證，證明所評估的調頻備轉容量足可應付負載及再生能源的變化。接著以相同方法並根據負載尖峰比例、再生能源裝置容量倍數將歷史資料逐時放大，藉以評估2022與2025年四季系統應提供的升降載率與調頻備轉容量，並比較各季節的容量差異。

In 2025, the installation capacity of renewable energy in Taiwan will reach 27GW. The net-load curve and its variation will make a significant difference from what they are now, which increase the difficulty of generation dispatch. Therefore, frequency regulation reserve needs to be re-evaluated by a new method. This study estimates the system ramp rate by taking the historical statistics of load conditions, variations and forecast errors of solar and wind generation in the year of 2018, coming along with Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients to evaluate frequency regulation reserve that should be provided by the electric power system in each hour during the four seasons in 2018. Compared with the actual ramp rate, it is proved that the evaluated frequency regulation reserve can sufficiently cover the variations of load and renewable energy. Using the same method by modifying the historical data on the ratio of load peak and renewable energy capacity multiples, we can forecast how much frequency regulation reserve should be provided in the year of 2022 and 2025.

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