臺灣之鄉村地區其生產環境須仰賴社會及自然系統資源投入，然而根據國科會與環境部之研究報告結果顯示，在降雨型態日漸兩極之趨勢下，將使鄉村地區之農業生產直接受到氣候變遷帶來之生計衝擊。其中，臺南市後壁區及鹽水區位於農業發展軸帶、農產業發展單一，且面臨降雨及氣溫改變等氣候變遷問題，因此如何就全面的系統性觀點看待農業問題，並釐清鄉村地區的永續生計(Sustainable Livelihoods)狀態仍須進一步研究證實，然而現行研究時間框架單一，可能忽略長期動態和變化潛力， 且永續生計框架(Sustainable Livelihoods Framework)和土地利用之間動態回饋關係的研究較少，缺乏從過程的角度綜合反應系統的變化。
因此，本研究旨在從永續生計框架下五項生計資產範疇，包含自然資本(Natural capital)、人力資本(Human capital)、物質資本(Physical capital)、金融資本(Financial capital)、社會資本(Social capital)等五項，以系統生態模型(system ecology model)之系統模擬方法，釐清臺南市後壁區及鹽水區之農業永續生計狀態。首先，提出符合臺灣鄉村地區之永續生計定義，並將其五項資產範疇及指標轉換成子系統與系統元素，建立臺灣鄉村地區社會支持、經濟及資源等三個子系統以釐清各元素間的交互影響，客觀呈現鄉村地區發展趨勢及氣候衝擊。
研究結果顯示，未來氣候變遷及相關政策影響下，農業資產及農業土地面積減少，而工商業家數及土地逐漸增加，對於本研究範圍之就業結構造成改變。再者，社會支持子系統中重要存量-青壯年、幼年及老年人口除可見其總人口規模減少外，亦發現有人口老化及扶養壓力提高之人口結構改變之狀態，其受到資源及經濟子系統之間各存量的複雜關係及運作，進而對社會支持子系統人口規模之穩定運作產生影響。
藉由永續生計指標及相關政策議題分析，發現氣候變遷對於在地農業及自然資產於不同時間之正負面影響，而非農業相關工商成長對於鄉村地區人口數成長誘因不足，最後，鄉村政策對於單一面向與整體永續生計狀態影響情形不同，因此相關政策落實應進一步於系統觀念下考量其他面向，更凸顯空間規劃制度之重要性。
綜上所述，氣候衝擊確實改變臺灣鄉村地區的永續生計定義及未來狀態，故本研究藉由建立出臺灣鄉村地區永續生計之長期系統動態關係，為臺灣鄉村地區政策、產業及生計永續發展提出相關建議。

Rural areas in Taiwan are highly dependent on inputs from social and natural systems. In recent years, increasingly polarized rainfall patterns have exposed agricultural livelihoods to intensified impacts of climate change. Houbi and Yanshui Districts in Tainan City, characterized by a highly specialized agricultural structure, urgently require a system-oriented approach to clarify their sustainable livelihood conditions. However, existing studies predominantly adopt static temporal frameworks and rarely examine the long-term dynamic feedbacks between sustainable livelihoods and land-use change.
This study is grounded in the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework and its five categories of livelihood assets. A system ecology–based simulation model is employed to construct three subsystems—social support, economy, and resources— to simulate long-term rural development dynamics. The results indicate that climate change and policy interventions are likely to reduce agricultural assets and farmland area while increasing industrial and commercial activities, thereby reshaping local employment structures. Meanwhile, declining population size, population aging, and rising dependency ratios undermine the stability of the social support system. The findings further suggest that policies targeting single dimensions have limited effects on overall sustainable livelihoods, highlighting the importance of integrating spatial planning and rural policies from a system-based perspective.

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