簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 李宗高
Li, Zong-Gao
論文名稱: 臺灣離岸風電股價對政策公告的反應
Response of Taiwan Offshore Wind Energy Stock Prices to Policy Announcements
指導教授: 王澤世
Wang, Tse-Shih
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 45
中文關鍵詞: 再生能源政策風電事件研究法似無相關迴歸模型異常報酬
外文關鍵詞: Renewable Energy Policy, Wind Power, Event Study, Seemingly Unrelated Regression, Abnormal Returns
相關次數: 點閱:66下載:8
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 本研究是首篇探討風電類股在面對政策與選舉事件時是否產生異常報酬的文章。以臺灣上市櫃風電產業類股為對象,運用事件研究法(Event Study)與似無相關迴歸模型(Seemingly Unrelated Regression, SUR),分析5個關鍵風電政策事件與近2次總統大選事件對相關類股影響。
    事件研究法結果顯示,風電政策與總統大選確實對相關類股產生顯著影響。5項政策事件中,第二階段潛力場址與第三階段區塊開發第一期的3項事件皆顯示正向反應,國產化政策有利風電類股;然而第三階段區塊開發第二期的「公告風電區塊開發3-2期選商機制草案」事件則有負向反應,同期的「公告第2期離岸風力發電區塊開發場址容量分配作業要點」事件則反應分歧。在選舉事件中,2020總統大選有正向反應,而2024總統大選有負向反應,雖皆產生異常報酬,但方向不同。
    SUR分析結果則顯示,風電政策與總統大選難以顯著影響相關類股。5項政策事件中,僅「公告離岸風力發電規劃場址容量分配作業要點」與「召開區塊開發座談會公布初步規則」事件有部分公司出現正向異常報酬,其餘事件則無顯著影響。在選舉事件中,2次總統大選皆無顯著影響風電類股。

    This study investigates whether wind power stocks in Taiwan exhibit abnormal returns in response to policy and election events. Utilizing Event Study methodology and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), it examines the impact of five key wind power policy events and the two most recent presidential elections in Taiwan. Event Study results reveal significant effects of wind power policies and presidential elections on these stocks. Three out of five policy events, particularly those related to Phase 2 (Zone Application for Planning) and Phase 3-1 (Zonal Development), generated positive abnormal returns, suggesting that localization policies benefit wind power stocks. Conversely, the "Draft Selection Mechanism for Phase 3-2" had a negative impact, while the "Capacity Allocation Guidelines for Phase 3-2" elicited mixed reactions. The 2020 presidential election had a positive impact, whereas the 2024 election had a negative impact, both yielding abnormal returns in opposite directions. SUR analysis indicates that wind power policies and presidential elections did not significantly influence these stocks. Only the "Directions for Allocating Installed Capacity of Offshore Wind Potential Zones" and the "Phase 3-1 Seminar Preliminary Rules" events showed positive abnormal returns for some companies, while other events showed no significant impact. Neither of the two presidential elections had a significant effect on wind power stocks.

    摘要 i ABSTRACT ii 誌謝 v 目錄 vi 表目錄 vii 圖目錄 viii 壹、 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 2 貳、 文獻回顧 3 第一節 再生能源政策與股票市場之關係 3 第二節 選舉事件與股票市場之關係 4 參、 研究方法 6 第一節 研究模型 6 第二節 公司資料來源與事件選取標準 10 肆、 實證結果與分析 14 第一節 事件研究法之實證結果 14 第二節 似無相關迴歸模型(SUR)之實證結果 26 伍、 結論與建議 31 第一節 結論 31 第二節 研究限制與建議 32 參考文獻 33

    朱政達(2020)。環保事件對台灣再生能源產業的股價影響,國立交通大學管理科學系所碩士論文。
    沈中華、李建然(2000)。《事件研究法—財務與會計實證研究必備》,台北:華泰文化。
    林展民(2019)。國家能源政策對台灣可再生能源產業股價的影響分析,國立交通大學管理學院管理科學學程碩士論文。
    馬敏侃(2012)。新能源政策對上市公司股價影響的實證研究。科學技術與工程,12(14), 3539-3543.
    張倉耀、蘇志偉、張旭玲、朱曉萍(2006)。從展望理論看台灣總統選舉對股票市場之效應分析。選舉研究,13(1),87-118。
    陳怡諠、卓翠月、白詩婷(2017)。總統選舉事件對股市之影響。選舉研究,24(1),33-60。
    Ahmed, F., Bahoo, S., Aslam, S., & Qureshi, M. A. (2020). Meta-analysis on American presidential election-2016 and american stock market. Studies of Applied Economics, 38(1).
    Aklin, M. (2018). How robust is the renewable energy industry to political shocks? Evidence from the 2016 US elections. Business and Politics, 20(4), 523-552.
    Allvine, F. C., & O'Neill, D. E. (1980). Stock market returns and the presidential election cycle: Implications for market efficiency. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(5), 49-56.
    Ball, R., & Brown, P. (1968). An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers. Journal of Accounting Research, 6(2), 159-178.
    Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1980). Measuring security price performance. Journal of Financial Economics, 8(3), 205-258.
    Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1985). Using daily stock returns: The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3-31.
    Brown, K. C., Harlow, W. V., & Tinic, S. M. (1988). Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(2), 355-385.
    Dyckman, T., Philbrick, D., & Stephan, J. (1984). A comparison of event study methodologies using daily stock returns: A simulation approach. Journal of Accounting Research, 1-30.
    Fama, E. F., Fisher, L., Jensen, M. C., & Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21.
    Foster, G. (1980). Accounting policy decisions and capital market research. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2(1), 29-62.
    Henderson Jr, G. V. (1990). Problems and solutions in conducting event studies. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 282-306.
    Karafiath, I. (1988). Using dummy variables in the event methodology. Financial Review, 23(3), 351-357.
    Lewis, J. I., & Wiser, R. H. (2007). Fostering a renewable energy technology industry: An international comparison of wind industry policy support mechanisms. Energy Policy, 35(3), 1844-1857.
    Nerger, G. L., Huynh, T. L. D., & Wang, M. (2021). Which industries benefited from Trump environmental policy news? Evidence from industrial stock market reactions. Research in International Business and Finance, 57, 101418.
    Nippani, S., & Medlin, W. B. (2002). The 2000 presidential election and the stock market. Journal of Economics and Finance, 26(2), 162-169.
    Oberndorfer, U., & Ziegler, A. (2006). Environmentally oriented energy policy and stock returns: an empirical analysis. ZEW-Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper, 6-79.
    Oehler, A., Walker, T. J., & Wendt, S. (2013). Effects of election results on stock price performance: evidence from 1980 to 2008. Managerial Finance, 39(8), 714-736.
    Pham, H., Nguyen, V., Ramiah, V., Mudalige, P., & Moosa, I. (2019). The effects of environmental regulation on the Singapore stock market. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(4), 175.
    Pham, L., Hao, W., Truong, H., and Trinh, H. H. (2023). The impact of climate policy on US environmentally friendly firms: A firm-level examination of stock return, volatility, volume, and connectedness. Energy Economics, 119, 106564.
    Ramiah, V., Martin, B., & Moosa, I. (2013). How does the stock market react to the announcement of green policies?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(5), 1747-1758.
    Ramiah, V., Pichelli, J., & Moosa, I. (2015). Environmental regulation, the Obama effect and the stock market: some empirical results. Applied Economics, 47(7), 725-738.
    Schotman, P. C., & Zalewska, A. (2006). Non-synchronous trading and testing for market integration in Central European emerging markets. Journal of Empirical Finance, 13(4-5), 462-494.
    Schwert, G. W. (1981). Using financial data to measure effects of regulation. The Journal of Law and Economics, 24(1), 121-158.
    Shahzad, U. (2012). The need for renewable energy sources. Energy, 2 ,16-18.
    Vargas, S. A., Esteves, G. R. T., Maçaira, P. M., Bastos, B. Q., Oliveira, F. L. C., & Souza, R. C. (2019). Wind power generation: A review and a research agenda. Journal of Cleaner Production, 218, 850-870.
    Zellner, A. (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57(298), 348-368.

    下載圖示 校內:立即公開
    校外:立即公開
    QR CODE