| 研究生: |
李宗高 Li, Zong-Gao |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
臺灣離岸風電股價對政策公告的反應 Response of Taiwan Offshore Wind Energy Stock Prices to Policy Announcements |
| 指導教授: |
王澤世
Wang, Tse-Shih |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2024 |
| 畢業學年度: | 112 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 45 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 再生能源政策 、風電 、事件研究法 、似無相關迴歸模型 、異常報酬 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Renewable Energy Policy, Wind Power, Event Study, Seemingly Unrelated Regression, Abnormal Returns |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:66 下載:8 |
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本研究是首篇探討風電類股在面對政策與選舉事件時是否產生異常報酬的文章。以臺灣上市櫃風電產業類股為對象,運用事件研究法(Event Study)與似無相關迴歸模型(Seemingly Unrelated Regression, SUR),分析5個關鍵風電政策事件與近2次總統大選事件對相關類股影響。
事件研究法結果顯示,風電政策與總統大選確實對相關類股產生顯著影響。5項政策事件中,第二階段潛力場址與第三階段區塊開發第一期的3項事件皆顯示正向反應,國產化政策有利風電類股;然而第三階段區塊開發第二期的「公告風電區塊開發3-2期選商機制草案」事件則有負向反應,同期的「公告第2期離岸風力發電區塊開發場址容量分配作業要點」事件則反應分歧。在選舉事件中,2020總統大選有正向反應,而2024總統大選有負向反應,雖皆產生異常報酬,但方向不同。
SUR分析結果則顯示,風電政策與總統大選難以顯著影響相關類股。5項政策事件中,僅「公告離岸風力發電規劃場址容量分配作業要點」與「召開區塊開發座談會公布初步規則」事件有部分公司出現正向異常報酬,其餘事件則無顯著影響。在選舉事件中,2次總統大選皆無顯著影響風電類股。
This study investigates whether wind power stocks in Taiwan exhibit abnormal returns in response to policy and election events. Utilizing Event Study methodology and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), it examines the impact of five key wind power policy events and the two most recent presidential elections in Taiwan. Event Study results reveal significant effects of wind power policies and presidential elections on these stocks. Three out of five policy events, particularly those related to Phase 2 (Zone Application for Planning) and Phase 3-1 (Zonal Development), generated positive abnormal returns, suggesting that localization policies benefit wind power stocks. Conversely, the "Draft Selection Mechanism for Phase 3-2" had a negative impact, while the "Capacity Allocation Guidelines for Phase 3-2" elicited mixed reactions. The 2020 presidential election had a positive impact, whereas the 2024 election had a negative impact, both yielding abnormal returns in opposite directions. SUR analysis indicates that wind power policies and presidential elections did not significantly influence these stocks. Only the "Directions for Allocating Installed Capacity of Offshore Wind Potential Zones" and the "Phase 3-1 Seminar Preliminary Rules" events showed positive abnormal returns for some companies, while other events showed no significant impact. Neither of the two presidential elections had a significant effect on wind power stocks.
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