| 研究生: |
趙泓智 Zhao, Hong-Zhi |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
永續揭露之資訊價值探討:利用機器學習辨識影響股價崩跌風險與報酬之關鍵 ESG 特徵 Which Sustainability Disclosures Matter? Machine Learning Evidence on ESG Features Related to Stock Price Crash Risk and Stock Returns |
| 指導教授: |
劉梧柏
Liu, Wu-Po |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 會計學系 Department of Accountancy |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 66 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 股價崩跌風險 、股價報酬 、ESG揭露 、機器學習 、特徵重要性 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | stock price crash risk, stock returns, ESG disclosure, machine learning, feature importance |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:24 下載:1 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
近年來,永續揭露的項目與篇幅持續擴張,企業被要求揭露的 ESG 資訊愈來愈多。然而揭露得多,是否就代表市場能從中讀到更多有用的訊息?在漂綠疑慮升高、揭露成本上升,且監理趨勢開始強調「應聚焦於具實質意義之資訊」的背景下,這個問題對企業、投資人與監理機關都日益迫切。
本研究以台灣上市櫃公司為對象,資料取自 TEJ 資料庫與臺灣證券交易所 ESG 數位平台,以股價崩跌風險與年報酬率作為觀察市場反應之依據。方法上結合傳統迴歸與三種樹基礎機器學習模型(GBRT、XGBoost、Random Forest),將兩套方法所辨識之重要與顯著特徵交叉比對,並橫跨四個應變數綜合判斷,藉以辨識在不同方法與應變數下反覆顯現關聯的揭露項目。
研究結果給出的答案相當一致,並不是每一種 ESG 揭露都有用。真正與崩跌風險或報酬產生關聯者,集中於少數可驗證、可量化的硬性指標,如範疇排放及其第三方驗證、職業災害比率、薪資水準與董事會結構;大量以「是否揭露」或「揭露字數」衡量的敘事型項目,在兩套方法與各應變數中幾乎都未顯現關聯。所以揭露的數量與形式,未必等同於其所攜帶的資訊內容。財務相關的變數仍然是與崩跌風險、報酬關聯最強的因素,ESG 揭露的關聯相對有限。
本研究以原始揭露資料取代第三方綜合評分,並結合迴歸與機器學習進行跨方法、跨應變數之交叉檢視,據以區分重要、邊際與訊號較微弱之揭露項目,較不重要的項目本身亦是一項值得參考的結果,可供重點揭露與永續揭露制度設計的簡單參考。本研究樣本期間僅涵蓋四個年度,相關結論仍有待未來以更長期間重新檢驗。
Sustainability disclosure has expanded rapidly in both scope and length, yet whether disclosing more conveys more decision-useful information to the market remains unclear. This study examines which ESG disclosure items are associated with stock price crash risk and annual stock returns among Taiwan-listed firms from 2021 to 2024. Using firm-level raw disclosure data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange ESG platform together with financial data from TEJ, it pairs panel regression with three tree-based machine learning models (GBRT, XGBoost, and Random Forest), cross-checking important and significant features across four dependent variables (Crash, NCSKEW, DUVOL, and annual Return). The results are consistent: not every ESG disclosure carries information. Associations concentrate in a small set of verifiable, quantifiable hard indicators, including emission verification, the occupational injury rate, salary levels, and board structure, whereas narrative disclosures measured by mere presence or word count show almost no association under either method. Financial variables remain the strongest correlates of both crash risk and returns. The study concludes that the volume and form of disclosure are not equivalent to their information content, and that the weaker standalone signal of narrative items is itself informative, provided it is not equated with unimportance, for corporate disclosure focus and for regulatory design.
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