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研究生: 江林軒
Chiang, Lin-Hsuan
論文名稱: 以事件研究法探討聯準會利率變動對匯率的影響
The Effect of Federal Funds Rate Changes on the Exchange Rate-Using an Event Study Approach
指導教授: 王澤世
Wang, Zi-Shi
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2008
畢業學年度: 96
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 43
中文關鍵詞: 聯準會利率匯率事件研究法
外文關鍵詞: Federal funds rate, exchange rate, event study
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  • 本篇論文主要在於分析聯準會利率變動對五種匯率 (加幣、澳幣、歐元、日幣、和英鎊) 上的影響,研究期間自2000年至2007年,在這段期間內共包含了36次聯準會利率變動。本研究採用了二種不同的方法 (Rai, Seth, & Mohanty (2007) 和Fama, Fisher, Jensen & Roll (1969) 的事件研究法),實證結果發現第一種模型與假設是不一致的,而事件研究法則是符合預期,除此之外,對於利率上升的反應比利率下降來的更顯著,存在著不對稱反應,本研究可以提供訊息給外國央行,當聯準會利率變動時是否該調整自己國家的貼現率來維持對美元匯率的穩定。

    This paper examines the effect of Federal funds rate changes on the exchange rates of five markets (Canada, Australia, Euro, Japan and the UK) during the period from 2000 to 2007 (36 changes in Fed funds rate are observed). Two different approaches, from Rai, Seth, and Mohanty (2007) and event study of Fama, Fisher, Jensen& Roll (1969), are used in our paper. The results are contrary to our hypothesis in first model and are consistent with our hypothesis when using event study. In addition, asymmetrical responses to rate decreases and increases are also found. The reaction to the rate increases is more significant than the rate decreases. Our paper can provide foreign central bank a message that should they adjust the discount rate in order to maintain the exchange rate stability when the U.S. of Fed funds rate changes.

    Chapter 1 Introduction....................................1 Chapter 2 Literature Review...............................4 2.1 The impact of monetary policy changes on financial markets...................................................4 2.2 The empirical result of UIP...........................6 2.3 The fitness of daily data on event study..............7 2.4 List of the important literature......................8 Chapter 3 Data...........................................11 Chapter 4 Methodology....................................13 4.1 Rai, Seth, and Mohanty (RSM) methodology.............13 4.1.1 Announcement, anticipatory and learning effects....13 4.1.2 Methodology........................................14 4.2 Event study methodology..............................15 4.2.1 Sample construction................................15 4.2.2 Abnormal return measure and Cumulative abnormal return measure...........................................15 Ⅰ. Abnormal return......................................15 Ⅱ. Cumulative abnormal return measure...................16 4.2.3 Test statistics under the null hypothesis..........16 Chapter 5 Results........................................18 5.1 RSM results..........................................18 5.2 Event study results..................................20 Chapter 6 Conclusion.....................................39 References...............................................41

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