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研究生: 呂彥樺
Lu, Yen-Hua
論文名稱: 利率期間結構配適下公司債信用風險之實證研究
The Empirical Study of Term Structure Fitting and Credit Risk of Corporate Bonds
指導教授: 王澤世
Wang, Tse-Shih
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 78
中文關鍵詞: 信用價差違約機率LS模型Vasicek利率模型
外文關鍵詞: Vasicek Model, LS Model, Probability of Default, Credit Spread
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  •   近年來,企業財務危機頻傳,相關金融監理機制以及信用風險等議題廣為投資人所關心,公司債所承擔的風險不再僅侷限於利率方面,更有可能因為信用的風險而致使投資人蒙受巨額損失;為此,Longstaff與 Schwartz在九五年提出一風險性公司債評價模型(稱LS模型),藉由Vasicek利率模型所推導的無風險債券價值,加上違約機率的估計而延伸出結合利率與違約風險之二因子公司債評價模型,本文即以該模型為實證架構,測試在國內利率與公司債的樣本資料下,LS模型信用價差相對於Merton模型(1974)以及國內交易市場觀察值的表現。

      實證結果發現,LS模型所衡量的理論價差相對市場觀察值而言,普遍存在低估的現象,但信用評等較差的公司債則可能因為違約機率的驟升,導致理論價差增加而高估了實際價差,整體來說,對於違約風險性較高的公司債,模型的預測誤差較大且極端;此外,對模型影響程度較大的參數為資產價值距違約邊界比、資產價值波動性與利率波動性等。

    致謝 I 論文摘要 II 目錄 III 圖表目錄 IV 第一章 序論 1 第一節 研究動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究架構 4 第二章 文獻探討 6 第一節 利率期間結構模型 6 第二節 利率期間結構之實證研究 11 第三節 信用價差期間結構模型 13 第四節 結構性信用模型之實證研究 20 第三章 研究模型 23 第一節 VASICEK利率模型 23 第二節 LONGSTAFF-SCHWARTZ模型之假設 25 第三節 風險性公司債之評價 28 第四章 研究方法 32 第一節 資料來源與處理 32 第二節 VASICEK利率模型參數之估計 34 第三節 公司違約參數之估計 38 第五章 實證結果 41 第一節 VASICEK利率參數估計結果 41 第二節 LS模型信用價差預測結果 42 第三節 敏感性分析 45 第六章 結論與建議 47 第一節 結論 47 第二節 研究限制 47 第三節 後續建議 48 參考文獻 49 

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