| 研究生: |
陳怡文 Chen, Yi-Wen |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
應用系統動態學架構三方競爭模型-以智慧型手機平台為例 A Third-party Competitive Model with System Dynamics-The Case of Smartphone Platform |
| 指導教授: |
耿伯文
Kreng, Victor. B |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系 Department of Industrial and Information Management |
| 論文出版年: | 2012 |
| 畢業學年度: | 100 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 56 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 智慧型手機作業系統 、Lotka–Volterra模型 、系統動態學 、市場潛量 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Smartphone platform, Lotka–Volterra model, System Dynamics, Market Potential |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:91 下載:1 |
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智慧型手機作業系統以黑莓機(RIM)、iPhone(iOS)以及Android為主。黑莓機(RIM)為智慧型手機之始祖,當iPhone(iOS)上市後,開始慢慢威脅到黑莓機(RIM)的銷售量。再者,緊接iPhone(iOS)後,Android作業系統也來勢洶洶,黑莓機(RIM)的銷售量則受到iPhone(iOS)以及Android作業系統兩方的威脅,且iPhone(iOS)的銷售量也漸漸的被Android作業系統影響。在此情況下,此三大作業系統之間的競爭越來越激烈,也因此帶動了智慧型手機的市場,使市場日益擴大。
因此,本研究將以Lotka–Volterra模型為基礎,並結合系統動態學(System Dynamics)探討智慧型手機作業系統由獨占市場(一方)的黑莓機(RIM)發展至兩方競爭市場的黑莓機(RIM)與iPhone(iOS),進而發展至黑莓機(RIM)、iPhone(iOS)以及Android作業系統三方之競爭市場,藉此了解其因果關係並建立系統性思考架構,找出其競爭關係以及分析後續發展趨勢。
研究結果顯示,Lotka–Volterra模型中,黑莓機(RIM)扮演獵物的角色,而iPhone(iOS)則是扮演掠食者的角色。在系統動態模型三方競爭方面,黑莓機(RIM)的銷售量會受到iPhone(iOS)以及Android的影響,使得其銷售量有下降的趨勢,並且可能被iPhone(iOS)與Android取代。
Smartphone have more functions just like motive computers, and can operation on fast on many platforms, such as RIM, iOS and Android etc. RIM is the first platform in the mobile phone market. When iOS join in this market, iOS is an intimidator to sales of RIM. Three month later, android also join in this market. Android starts to grab market share form RIM and iOS. Now, this three major platforms will compete fiercely with each other, which competition will encourage the Smartphone market to expand more prosperously.
Therefore, on the basis of Lotka–Volterra model, this study establishes a third-party competitive model with System Dynamics. First, Smartphone market had only RIM platform, which monopolized the market. Second, Smartphone market has RIM and iOS platforms, it is called second-party competitive model. Third, RIM, iOS and Android platforms occupies the majority of Smartphone now, that is considered as third-party competitive model. This study want to understand the competitive relationship of the three platforms and future development.
In the competitive relationship of Lotka–Volterra model, we can regard the RIM as a prey and the iOS as the predator. Because of iOS and Android, Sales of RIM will reduce in the third-party competitive model. Maybe RIM will be eliminated in few years later.
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