本研究目的為推估曾文水庫集水區在颱風與西南氣流共伴下之可能最大降雨。研究動機為莫拉克颱風(2009)對台灣造成重大傷害，在莫拉克帶來強大降雨期間，曾文水庫量測到之最高水位接近其壩頂標高，而莫拉克颱風有如此強大降雨之其一原因為颱風與西南氣流產生共伴效應，並加上颱風移動速度緩慢，才造成如此現象。因此針對颱風與西南氣流共伴下對於可能最大降雨的影響，有探討之必要性，探討其會隨之變小或隨之變大，進一步可讓有關單位應用本研究之概念評估曾文水庫之安全性。
本研究推估颱風與西南氣流共伴下可能最大降雨之主要概念。主要是評估莫拉克颱風(2009)之比濕與風場觀測資料後，得到兩個重要資訊，其一為可將比濕誤差忽略，其二是風場觀測資料推求颱風與西南氣流共伴時給予共伴區域之轉換係數α，將兩個重要資訊配合水氣收支平衡方程式，而推導共伴降雨方程式，並利用此共伴降雨方程式推估颱風與西南氣流共伴下之可能最大降雨。本研究稱此共伴降雨方程式之概念為獨立法，其主要原因為共伴降雨可視為颱風系統降雨及西南氣流系統降雨相加而得，似乎顯示共伴降雨為颱風降雨及西南氣流降雨分別獨立給予。也因如此，要分別估算西南氣流可能最大降雨及颱風可能最大降雨。
西南氣流可能最大降雨係透過建立阿里山測站西南氣流降雨回歸方程式進而推估求得。阿里山測站西南氣流降雨回歸方程式是利用西南氣流降雨時之阿里山降雨觀測資料與The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR)風速及可降水量建立而得。使用的方法為線性回歸法，並透由交叉驗證的方式建立。
颱風可能最大降雨係透過暴雨移位與露點調整法與颱風模式法推估而得。暴雨移位與露點調整法係根據台灣過去已設定完成的參數基礎下推估颱風可能最大降雨。颱風模式法亦也大部分根據台灣過去已設定完成之參數基礎下推估颱風可能最大降雨，唯獨不同的地方是多考慮一層地形雨的影響，而經過此考慮後，颱風模式法模擬降雨的能力有明顯改善。
將西南氣流可能最大降雨及颱風可能最大降雨應用獨立法推估颱風與西南氣流共伴降雨前，要先將西南氣流可能最大降雨利用面積遞減因子轉換為面積雨量。並因颱風模式法有其逐時路徑對應之雨量，亦要設計西南氣流降雨雨型，以配合加入颱風模式法。
本研究為了有一比較基準，會以延時60小時為基準評估本研究推導颱風與西南氣流共伴下之可能最大降雨結果。將西南氣流可能最大降雨與颱風可能最大降雨，利用獨立法推導之共伴降雨方程式，推求颱風與西南氣流共伴下之延時60小時可能最大降雨，並與歷史颱風造成曾文水庫集水區延時60小時前2高之降雨進行比較，結果顯示本研究推求之颱風與西南氣流共伴影響下延時60小時可能最大降雨較歷史颱風造成曾文水庫集水區延時60小時前2高之降雨都要高，顯示本研究結果對於曾文水庫集水區之安全有一定之安全性。然而本研究推導之共伴區降雨方程式，主要是以轉換係數α影響颱風與西南氣流延時60小時可能最大降雨之推估結果大小，而根據8場歷史颱風推估之最保守α值為0.72，尚有其調整空間，因為未來是否會出現比0.72還要高之颱風是一件不確定之因素，因此對於是否要使用0.72作為基本設定值，可以讓相關單位討論其調整空間，應用於評估曾文水庫之安全性。

This study proposes an independent approach to estimate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by considering the combined effect of typhoon and southwesterly flow. The concept of independent approach is that the PMP by considering the combined effect of typhoon and southwesterly flow is equal to sum of the product of α and the PMP of southwesterly flow plus the product of α and the PMP of typhoon, which is derived from the water vapor balance equation based on the key findings from the investigation of specific humidity and wind field. The value α represents the capable of combined effect of typhoon and southwesterly flow could be triggered by the interaction of wind field of typhoon and wind field of southwesterly flow. The highest value α is 0.72 on eight typhoon events. In this study, the PMP of southwesterly flow is calculated by the linear regression equation which is established by the cross-validation method, the storm transposition method and storm separation method are adopted to estimate the PMP of typhoon. The study area is Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. The result shows that the duration 60-hour of PMP by considering the combined effect of typhoon and southwesterly flow at the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment is 2,909 mm, which is large than the duration 60-hour of highest observed precipitation (1,697 mm) at the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. Therefore, there is certain safety of the independent approach for estimating PMP by considering the combined effect of typhoon and southwesterly flow on the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment.

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