水庫放水操作經常以水庫上游集水區之入流量為參考依據，倘能事先精確地預測入流量將有助於水庫之操作管理。鑒此，本研究擬開發水庫枯水期長期入流量預報系統並應用於曾文水庫上游集水區，以支援水庫管理單位進行放水操作決策與乾旱預警之參考。

　　水庫枯水期長期入流量預報系統係結合連續型降雨-逕流模式與氣象局長期天氣展望之預報結果，來進行水庫未來三旬入流量預報。本文主要研究內容包含：(1)配合水庫操作嘗試修正降雨-逕流模式以旬為演算單位、(2)修正中央氣象局之長期天氣展望資料使適用研究地區、(3)進行未來三旬水庫入流量預報，與(4)開發視窗化入流量預報系統以便使用者進行操作。模式率定與驗證工作採用曾文水庫28年之歷史資料進行，分析結果發現：本模式以旬為時間單位模擬降雨-逕流間行為有良好精度。由於傳統水庫操作對於未來入流量之預報是以歷年旬入流量平均值為參考基準，因此本研究將進一步比較此系統之預報與直接利用平均值參考基準等兩種方式之優劣，比較結果得知：本研究之入流量預報系統有較好之結果。最後，本研究將採用Visual Basic結合Fortran程式語言撰寫視窗化入流量預報系統，使得本入流量預報系統更具親和力。

　　Long-term inflows of reservoir form upstream catchment are important information for reservoir operation. If the inflows of reservoir can be forecasted precisely beforehand, that may benefit the reservoir operation and management. Therefore, we attempt to develop a long-term inflow forecasting system of reservoir during the dry seasons and apply the system in the upstream catchment of Tsengwen reservoir, which is to support the reservoir management for operation decision and drought warning.

　　The long-term inflow forecasting system of reservoir that combines a continuous rainfall-runoff model with the long-term weather outlook provided by the Central Weather Bureau to forecast three ten-day ahead inflows. There are several tasks in the present study, including (1) developing a rainfall-runoff model based on ten-day time scale in order to match up the time scale of reservoir operation, (2) proposing a transforming method to correct the long-term weather outlook for the study area, (3) forecasting one to three ten-day ahead inflows of reservoir, and (4) developing a window-based long-term inflow forecasting system of reservoir to provide users with convenient operation. Model calibration and verification were performed from 28-year historical records, and the results reveal the continuous rainfall-runoff model has good performances on ten-day flow simulation. One to three ten-day ahead inflows forecasted in the study were compared with the historical average ten-day inflows, which are always chosen as a reference for reservoir classical operation. The comparison indicates that the proposed inflow forecasting system has better results for one to three ten-day inflow forecasting. Finally, we use the Visual-Basic 6.0 software coupled with Fortran software to develop a window-based long-term inflow forecasting system of reservoir.

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