氣候變遷與人類活動導致水文模式變化顯著，對流域水文過程造成影響，進而使得許多地區面臨水資源問題以及社會發展與環境保護間的衝突。過去研究指出臺灣未來的降雨量及河川流量將逐漸減少，以臺灣南部區域尤為嚴重。在水資源方面，地下水為相對較為穩定的水資源來源，但由於監測困難與含水層的不可見性，研究可關注範圍有限。在地下水儲存量估計方法中，流量消退分析經常用於探討乾燥期間地下水儲存量與河川流量間的關係。因此，本研究選取臺灣南部區域17個水文測站，藉由考量環境變化影響下的低流消退分析方法，綜合性地探討消退特徵、地下水儲存量以及儲水-排水關係，並且同時將量化的環境影響與植被變化進行比較。結果顯示，集水區特徵與低流消退特徵間的相關性指出主流坡度與主流長度等為消退機制的主要控制因子，與過去研究一致。動態儲水量的區域差異性與基流指數BFI(Baseflow Index)間的相關性也顯示其與含水層地質構造的關聯性。六龜和三地門以及曾文溪與二仁溪流域的集水區有較高的儲排水敏感度，表明這些集水區的排水過程相較於其他集水區較容易受到環境變化所影響，影響機制也指出地下水儲存量的下降將導致流量消退速率的上升。此外，本研究將環境變化影響與標準化植被指數NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)進行比較，藉此瞭解植被變化以及其他可能因素對於地下水儲存量的影響。本研究探討儲排水動態的時空差異，並透過一系列的分析幫助我們瞭解集水區排水行為中的環境影響機制。

Climate change and human activities have led to significant changes in hydrological patterns that have had an influence on the basin/catchment hydrological processes around the world, making many regions face water resources problem and conflicts between social development and environmental protection. Previous studies also indicated that the rainfall and streamflow in Taiwan will gradually decrease, especially in Southern Taiwan. And in water resources, groundwater is a relatively stable source but often less concerned due to difficulties in monitoring and its invisibility. Among the estimation methods for groundwater storage, the recession analysis usually used to explore the relationship between groundwater storage and streamflow during the drying period. Therefore, this study choose 17 guage stations in Southern Taiwan to use the low-flow recession analysis considering environmental change impact to comprehensively explores the recession characteristics, groundwater storage, and storage-discharge relationship. Finally, the quantification of environmental impacts and vegetation coverage changes are compared for discussing how the catchment drainage process is affected by environmental changes. The results showed that the correlation between the low-flow recession characteristics and the catchment characteristics describe the mainly dependent characteristics in the recession regime. The regional differences in dynamic storage and the correlation with BFI (baseflow index, which represents the ratio of baseflow to total streamflow) also represent the relevance to the geological structure. The higher storage-discharge sensitivities in Liu-Kwei and San-Ti-Men catchments and the Zengwen and Erren river basins indicated that the drainage process in these catchments are more susceptible to environmental changes than in the others. Then the impact regime indicate that the decreasing groundwater storage will increase the flow recession rate. In addition, we compared the quantification of environmental impact changes with the change in NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) to understand the effects of vegetation changes and other possible factors on catchment groundwater storage. This study explored temporal and spatial difference in storage-discharge dynamics and helped us to understand the environmental change impact regimes in catchment drainage behaviors by a series of analyses.

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