2009年爆發的歐債危機引發全球不景氣，國家的債信問題開始受到大家關注，我國近年來赤字居高不下，外界開始擔心台灣會不會「希臘化」？財政為庶政之母，唯有健全的財政，才能使國家總體經濟發展順利，提升國家競爭力。因此開始思考影響政府債務的原因為何?本論文以台灣地區中央政府做為研究對象，找出影響政府債務餘額的決定因素，以期對中央政府財政困境帶來改善之契機。本研究主要以實質國內生產毛額、中央政府主要的歲入、歲出為變數。實證結果顯示：中央政府債務餘額與實質國內生產毛額(GDP)在1%的顯著水準下呈現顯著正相關，可能原因為近年來政府為擴大公共建設支出，雖達成促進經濟成長之政策效果，卻導致中央政府債務餘額逐年上揚。教育科學文化支出對我國政府債務餘額在10%顯著水準下呈正相關，係因我國歷年來一直相當重視人才的培育，即使歲入減少仍然儘力籌編教育預算，致使政府財政負擔加劇。新制退休撫卹支出與政府債務餘額在5%顯著水準下呈現正向關係。我國政府債務餘額與國防支出在1%的顯著水準下，呈現負向相關。本研究主要貢獻在於係以政府債務餘額而非以債務比率來探討，並以實證方式找出影響中央政府債務的因素。

Determinants of Taiwan's central government debt balance
Li Min Chang
Dr. TsingZai C. Wu
Graduate Institute of Finance , National Cheng Kung University

SUMMARY

The study is focusing on the factors affecting the central government debt balance. The variables are the real GDP, and the main revenues and expenditures of the central government. The model used is Least Squares Regression Model. The study indicates the following: the central government debt balance has a positive correlation with real GDP, educational/scientific/cultural expenditures and the new pension fund expenditure, while the central government debt balance has a negative correlation with national defense expenditures.
The biggest fiscal problem of our nation is the inflexibility of our expenditure structure. As a result, the resolution is to prevent excessive tax reduction and to raise funds from various sources. In terms of public expenditure, the government shall elevate the efficiency of policy implementation and avoid unnecessary expenditures so as to efficiently solve the current fiscal difficulty.

Key words：Government Debt Balance,GDP,Revenues,Expenditures

INTERODUCTION

The crisis of Euro debts in 2009 brings up the economic recession in the world. The public starts paying attention to the credit of nations. The fiscal deficit of Taiwan is on the peak. People begin worried about whether Taiwan will become next Greece. Finance is the foundation of public affairs; therefore, sound finance will make the macroeconomics development of a nation smooth and increase the competitive edge of a nation. Therefore, we begin thinking what are the primary factors that affect the government debts. The study focuses on the central government and tries to find out the factors that affect the government debt balance so as to improve the fiscal difficulty of the central government.
Eisner and Pieper (1987) researched based on the samples of the US and 34 countries from OECD during the period of 1973 to 1988. E Al-Khedair(1996), by adopting multiple regression analysis, researched based on the samples of G7 during the period of 1964 to 1993. The studies indicated that budget deficit has a positive correlation with economic growth. Karagol and Sezgin (2004), by adopting Probit model, analyzed the relationship between national defense expenditures and public debt of Turkey during the period of 1955 to 2000. Kolias et al.(2004), by adopting multiple regression analysis, analyzed the relationship between national defense expenditures and public debt of Greece during the period of 1960 to 2001. Their studies indicated that national defense expenditures have a positive correlation with public debt.
The study looks into the factors determining the central government debt balance. The period covered by the study is 34 years ranging from 1980 to 2013. The dependent variables are the central government debt balance. The independent variables are real GDP, expenditures for education, science & culture, expenditures for national defense, expenditures for social welfare, expenditures for retirement and condolence, expenditures for economic development, revenues form taxes, surplus of public enterprises, revenues from properties and fees and revenues from fines. The model used is the Least Squares Regression Model.
The study indicates the following: the central government debt balance has a positive correlation with real GDP, educational/scientific/cultural expenditures and the new pension fund expenditure, while the central government debt balance has a negative correlation with national defense expenditures.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The primary independent variables of the study are as follows; (1) Real GDP: The base period is 2006. The real GDP is calculated by taking into account the deflators and inflation. (2) Expenditures for education, science & culture: Educational investment is a kind of human resource investment which is advantageous to elevating the national competitive edge. Our government always emphasize on compiling educational budget. (3) Expenditures for new pension fund: The public service pension fund will pay for the public servants who are on board after July 1, 1995 and the public servants opting for the old pension fund who accumulated service years after the new pension fund comes into effect. (4) Expenditures for national defense: National defense is the protection of national security. Therefore, expenditures for national defense always play an important role for governmental expenditures. The study method adopted is the Least Squares Regression Model.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The study indicates the following: The government debt balance (1) has a positive correlation with GDP to the extent of 1%, i.e., the positive correlation is within our expectation; (2) has a positive correlation with expenditures for education, science & culture to the extent of 10%, i.e., the positive correlation is within our expectation; (3) has a positive correlation with expenditures for new pension fund to the extent of 5%, i.e., the positive correlation is within our expectation; and (4) has a negative correlation with expenditures for national defense to the extent of 5%, i.e., the negative correlation is within our expectation. The correlation with other variables is not noticeable.

CONCLUSION

The central government debt balance has a positive correlation with real GDP. This is because the government expands public construction expenditures for recent years. Although the policy improves economic growth, it makes the central government debt go up. E expenditures for education, science & culture and expenditures for new pension funds have a positive correlation with the government debt balance. This is because after customary expenditures are increasing, customary revenue surplus that may be applied to capital expenditures is decreasing. In order to maintain capital expenditures, the government raises debts to respond. The central government debt balance has a negative correlation with expenditures for national defense. This is because the expenditures for national defense out of the central government total expenditures are decreasing due to the fact that the tense of the Taiwan Strait is easing up and the policy of the government is changing.

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三、網站部分
1. 立法院國會圖書館http://npl.ly.gov.tw/
2. 公務人員退休撫卹基金管理委員會http://www.fund.gov.tw/
3. 行政院主計總處 http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/
4. 財政部http://www.mof.gov.tw/
5. 財政部國庫署http://www.nta.gov.tw/
6. 審計部全球資訊網 http://www.audit.gov.tw/